There has been a lot of debate throughout the season about Southern Durham. Are they really a team that is 0-5 or a 3-2 or 4-1 team incognito? The reality is that I doubt we find out tonight as they visit the undefeated Hornets. Hillside has been dismantling their opponents and I don't mean simply in the score. If you know anything about Durham football and how some folks operate, then it should not be a coincidence that on a night when Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson is in the stands to watch his future option quarterback handle the pigskin that quarterback Lee doesn't disappoint, to the tune of five rushing touchdowns in a 33 to 8 whipping of a top 10 Dudley team. The reality, Hillside probably could have scored any way they chose, but the M.O. on this night was showcasing the GT recruit in front of his future boss. That by itself should tell you how potent this team is and why Southern Durham and others should be ready for something very dangerous when they face the Hornets.
Regardless of the Hornets accomplishments to-date, the question remains if Southern is better than their 0-5 mark indicates. Sure they've played a tough schedule, but the reality is they are sitting at 0-5, close games or not. It's getting close to game time...with that said, let's get started!
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Hillside - (5-0 overall)
Wins - Grimsley (4A), George Washington Danville (Virginia, Division 5), South View (4A), E.E. Smith (4A), Dudley (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 11-13; PF - 225, PA - 47
Losses - None
Strength of Schedule - 38 of 98 4A teams (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Dudley. The Panthers were ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll and considered by many to be a top contender for the state title. Ranked or not, they were dismantled in all aspects of the game. GT recruit Lee rushed for five touchdowns and added 141 yards through the air while the Hornet defense limited the Dudley offense to just over 100 yards of total offense. Sure, the Hornets have scored more, but there really wasn't any doubt from beginning to end and it was against the toughest opponent to date.
Best Loss - The one that hasn't occurred yet.
Southern Durham - (0-5 overall)
Wins - None
Losses - JH Rose (4A), Middle Creek (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Douglas Byrd (4A), Millbrook (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 22 - 2; PF - 70, PA - 107
Strength of Schedule - 5 of 98 4A teams (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Whenever their first one occurs.
Best Loss - Byrd. Almost all of Southern's defeats have been competitive, but the contest against Byrd had the Spartans leading 7-6 at halftime and it wasn't until late that Byrd made the plays to take home the victory. The Spartan offense picked up a season high of 224 yards through the air and had their second best rushing total of the year although in both cases they had a high number of attempts. Defensively the Spartans limited Byrd to just over 200 yards of offense. As with most of their losses they appear to be close, but not close enough to pulling out the W.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - Neither Hillside or Southern have a common opponent. The only connections are that South View (Hillside opponent) played Byrd (Southern opponent). Byrd defeated South View 25-0. E.E. Smith also played Byrd. Bryd defeated E.E. Smith 25-23.
Statistically Speaking - Hillside has been dominant. Not much else seemingly needs to be said. I would add that out of all of my reviews, the Hillside game statistics were the toughest to come across and I must admit that they were incomplete for the Grimsley game.
Hillside has scored 225 points on the season for a stellar 45 points a game while their defense has allowed only 47 points or just under 10 points a game. Add to that, they've been dominant in the first half, outscoring their competition 140 to 18.
Offensively they are the King of yardage so far in the conference totalling 1083 yards rushing and 1061 yards passing. Only East Chapel Hill and Air-Renner has put up more yards through the air (1208). They have also been balanced, averaging 216 yards a game rushing and 212 yards a game passing. To put up those numbers they rushed the ball about 62% of the time to 38% through the air. They've been consistently brutal against opposing defenses rushing the ball with a solid six yard a rush average and complemented that with over 10 yards an attempt through the air.
On the defensive side of the ball the Hornets have been stingy to say the least. In five games they've allowed just under 120 yards per game on the ground and an under four yards per carry average, tops in the conference. If there is a weakness it is probably through the air where the Hornets have given up roughly 110 yards a game at a seven yard per attempt clip (not counting the Grimsley game - no statistics available). Compared to the remainder of the PAC-6 they are close to the bottom in average yards per attempt defensively.
Hillside has scored over four games (not including Grimsley) an average of four plus rushing touchdowns a game and almost two passing touchdowns. They've added a special teams score and three defensive scores as well. Numerous Hornets have reached the end zone led by Lee with eight rushing scores and China with five additional scores (not including Grimsley game).
Southern Durham has struggled this season on the offensive side of the ball. This is probably not a huge surprise after losing the majority of their production offensively over the past two seasons. The Spartans have struggled to find their groove running the ball, something that has traditionally been a staple of Spartan teams. Over five games they have rushed for only 313 yards and averaged a paltry two and half yards per carry for a 63 yard average per game on the year. Fortunately for them, their passing game has made up a bit for their rushing woes as they have put up roughly 171 yards a game at just over six yards per attempt. This places them behind East Chapel Hill and Hillside in overall conference rank.
Defensively, the Spartans are about middle of the conference against the rush allowing roughly 180 yards per game at just under five yards per attempt. Similarly their pass defense, although better than the Hornets, still allows over 90 yards a game and roughly six yards per attempt.
The Spartans have struggled to find the end zone this year putting up 70 total points against 107 to their opponents. They've put the ball in the end zone twice as many times through the air as on the ground which is indicative of their offensive output. D. Bullock and J. Bullock lead the team in touchdowns with two a piece.
All Those Other Items
Unlike our other previews, this game may be the simplest in dissecting as we look at other games. Hillside has in general been dominant from start to finish. They have had minimal miscues and have capitalized on opponents mistakes. Southern has found itself in competitive games in three out of the five contests going into half time, including two games where they held the lead (Middle Creek and Byrd) before faltering in the second half.
In both the Middle Creek and Byrd games the Spartan defense rose to the occasion, allowing just over 200 yards of total offense to a powerful Byrd team, while limiting G. Leathem at Middle Creek to just over 150 yards passing and shutting down the Mustangs rushing attack for 89 yards on the game. In their other three contests, against Rose, WFR and Millbrook, the rushing attacks dominated, including a Marshall led Millbrook attack that averaged over six yards per carry.
Hillside's worst outing defensively came against Virginia opponent George Washington Danville, where they allowed over 200 yards on the ground and 168 through the air. Interestingly, they still found themselves ahead 35 to 8 going into intermission.
The Final Analysis
It would be somewhat easy, based on past experience, to say throw the records out on this one, but after last weeks impressive showing by the Hornets you get the feeling that the statistics may be proof that this Hillside team is truly All In for 2010. Southern has definitely played a tough schedule and in general aside from the WFR game where they trailed 21 to 0 at the half were in all of their games. In fact, even in games that seemed to be out of reach the Spartans continued to fight back and made games close at the end.
Offensively the Hornets have been nothing less that dominant and balanced. Weapons abound and it will be up to the athletic Spartans to stop the attack, unfortunately for Southern, their defense at their best, has only been an average squad. The Spartans offense will be facing one of the better rush defenses in the conference and that doesn't bode well for the rushing attack that the Spartans have fielded up to this point.
The Spartans strength will be to attack the Hillside secondary and pass defense, something the Hornets have struggled with so far this year.
On paper, tough schedule or not for the Spartans, aside from a potentially suspect secondary for the Hornets, it looks as though everything points towards a Hillside victory and the sixth defeat for the Spartans. Look for the Hornets to control the clock with their balanced attack while the Spartans are stymied in the running game and have a number of three and outs due to sporadic production through the passing game. The Hornets will put up four rushing touchdowns and pepper in two strikes from the air while capitalizing on a special team or defensive score. The Spartans will battle until the end, but only manage to put up a score through the air. Hillside moves to 6-0, while the Spartans fall to 0-6 and get ready for a much different level of opponent heading into their next five games.
DFBFan's Pick - Southern Durham vs. Hillside
Hillside - 48
Southern Durham - 7
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