The Wildcats opened PAC-6 play last week with high hopes based in part on a high-flying offensive attack, but found themselves down early to five win Jordan and never recovered. The potent Air-Renner attack that had posted close to 300 yards through the air was shut down by one of the top pass defenses in the conference and could only muster 174 yards at a paltry three and half yard per attempt average. For a team that has been living off the pass to either keep them in games or make not-so-close games look much closer, they were a healthy looking bird - without its wings; and that bird ain't flyin'!
Something has to budge this Friday evening and one of the two will walk away with their first conference win. The pressure you would think would be on a ECH squad that with one win on the season has to respect the fact that this is a win they have to bank if they have any thought of postseason play...with that said, let's get started!
Where They Stand Entering the Game
East Chapel Hill (1 - 5 overall; 0 - 1 conference)
Wins - Northwood (2A); Record of Teams Combined - 2-4; PF - 20, PA - 18
Losses - Cardinal Gibbons (3A), Cedar Ridge (2A), Carrboro (2A), Chapel Hill (3A), Jordan (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 22-7; PF - 126, PA - 198
Strength of Schedule - 67 of 98 teams; (+25 from Week 1 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Northwood. Look back over the recent past and there aren't a ton of wins for ECH, so to get one on opening night was huge. Add to that, a new head coach, a new offensive system and there was a lot of reasons why the typically powerful Northwood team should have won the game, but in the end, the Wildcats did what was necessary and came out with a close 20-18 victory despite giving up over 300 yards rushing. The spread attack is there and Renner knows how to implement it with Davis at the controls.
Riverside - (0 - 5 overall; 0 - 0 conference)
Wins - None.
Losses - Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Apex (4A), Chapel Hill (3A), Garner (4A), Wakefield (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 18-11; PF - 60, PA - 175
Strength of Schedule - 45 of 98 4A teams; (-7 from Week 1 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - The Pirates have yet to taste victory in the 2010 season and this may be one of their best opportunities to get in the W column.
Best Loss - Chapel Hill. The Pirates put up their best rushing performance of the 2010 year against the Tigers, rushing for 242 yards and averaging a stellar seven plus yards a carry. Through the air, Riverside had their second best passing performance of the season with 130 yards. Defensively, the Pirates were about average, although they were outstanding in the second half, limiting the Tigers to only nine points. Down 7 to 22 at the half, the Pirates showed their tenacity and credit to the Pirate coaching staff and leadership within to battle back in the second half and only fall by three, 28-31.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - It's about time! We have a common opponent...We have a common opponent! Both teams battled Chapel Hill early this year and both came away with losses. East fell to the Tigers 28 to 40 while the Pirates battled back in the second half of their contest to fall 28 to 31. Riverside ran for close to 250 yards (7.1 YPC) while the Wildcats mustered 130 yards (4.8 YPC). Both teams were well above their averages in total yards rushing and average per carry against the Tigers. East has shown they desire to put the ball in the air with their spread, while Riverside tends to spread ala old school Rich Rod and West Virginia teams in order to run. Riverside only ran the ball seven more times than East but had more than a three yard per carry average advantage. Through the air, the Wildcats put up 272 yards to Riverside's 130, but East also attempted almost double the attempts. Average per attempt were close, 6.3 to 5.9, ECH to RHS respectively. Offensively the advantage points to the Pirates.
Against the rush, neither team faired that well, although Riverside was better allowing 5.6 YPC to 7.3 YPC by the ECH defense. Through the air, both teams allowed in the 130 yard range (12.6 YPA - ECH and 10.2 YPA - Riverside). Riverside faired better in that their defense was better against the pass than they typically are, while ECH was not as good as their average. Both teams gave up two rushing scores, but the Wildcats were burnt for four scores through the air. Again, their appears to be a slight advantage defensively for the Pirates.
Statistically Speaking - East has lived on the pass and they've been dominated in the run. The formula to-date has been that simple and unless they can strengthen the pass, more effective in creating scores, while limiting the rushing damage they are seeing each week, it will continue to be a long conference season. Riverside has played three tough opponents and have been shut-out in all three. Good news for them that ECH is not in that category. In their other two games, Apex and Chapel Hill, Riverside scored 32 and 28 points respectively, had glimpses of a rushing attack (Chapel Hill) and of a passing attack (Apex) and ultimately lost by a combined 6 points.
Riverside has only scored 60 points this year while giving up 175. You would think that against East, which falls more in-line with Apex and Chapel Hill in strength and as such, more than 12 points a game seems reasonable. Defensively, it's another story, as the Pirates have given up 27 on the low end and 42 on the high end. Good chance, East scores as well. Although there is a caveat - the Pirates have given up five touchdowns on special teams and offensive miscues.
Riverside is a spread team, operating primarily from the gun and often with two backs, in a 2x1 and two back set. In general the Pirates have struggled to run the ball at only 3.1 YPC and under 100 yards a game. They had a strong showing against Chapel Hill with 242 yards and more importantly 7.1 YPC. The air game was no doubt affected by the loss of their starting quarterback early in the year and since that point they've been struggling to find a replacement capable of burdening the load. The Pirates peaked against Apex with 272 yards and 9.7 YPA, but overall have passed for 135 YPG and just 5 YPA.
Defensively, the Pirates have given up close to 1000 yards rushing this year, allowing opposing offenses close to 5.5 YPC. Their worst showing was against a Garner team featuring Clanton in the I backfield where they allowed 298 yards on 44 carries. They've struggled against the pass, allowing 12 YPA, while only seeing on average 14 attempts a game.
The Pirates have been limited in their visits to the endzone this year, accumulating just eight scores. Five have been on the ground and two through the air. They've also added a defensive score.
East Chapel Hill's offense was shut down last week against Jordan in their first conference game, while their defense was on par with the averages - and that isn't a good thing! The Wildcats are averaging 24 points a game while giving up 36.
Offensively, the Wildcats' air attack was stymied last week as Jordan limited East to 174 yards passing and and almost three yards less per attempt. Although the Wildcats ran for more yards per rush they ended up with only 73 yards on the ground. The Wildcats continue to lean heavily on the pass averaging close 250 yards a game at 6.5 YPA.
Defensively, East was hit hard on the line of scrimmage, to the tune of 323 yards rushing by the Falcon attack (8.3 YPC). Through the air the Falcons added another 195 yards (10.3 YPA). In both cases the averages were above what East had given up on the year.
It is no surprise that East has found the endzone most often through the passing game with a 16 to 5 ratio to the running game. Defensively, the Wildcats have given up 30 touchdowns, with 20 of them coming from opposing rushing attacks.
All Those Other Items
Special teams have been an issue for the Pirates as they have given up four scores with those units on the field. East has done better allowing a kick off return to Cedar Ridge as their only non-defensive score. Both teams have found themselves down at halftime (aside from East's victory over Northwood) in all of their contests with East down by roughly 13 on average and Riverside down by 21.
The Final Analysis
There are a lot of reasons to suggest that this game will be close and high scoring. The statistics say that Riverside should have success on the ground, while those same statistics say that East should have a field day through the air. The Pirates will attempt to control the clock and the pace of the game through their rushing attack, while East will attempt to attack and overwhelm the Pirates quickly through a fast paced passing attack. The Pirates experienced a more polished version of the Air-Renner attack after playing Wakefield two week ago and quarterback Connor Mitch. The Wolverines put up over 300 yards passing and averaged almost 13 YPA. But, there were a number of series where the Pirate defense bent, but didn't break and it wasn't until a hot second quarter that the Wolverines got on the board with three quick scores. Part of Riverside's troubles stemmed from sustaining their offensive drives, even though they ran the ball in a few situations well. I don't expect to see the same type of rush defense from East that was present against the Wolverines, which should mean more effectiveness on the ground and more of an ability to control the clock.
East has shown, aside from their game against Jordan that they have been consistent in their scoring ways and I look to see that consistent nature rebound this week with a rushing score and three more through the air. Riverside, if they take care of business on the ground and capitalize when they reach the redzone will put up four scores (three on the ground and one through the air). This game will be close, if both teams perform well in those areas they've shown they can do well in. Coaches always say that there are three phases of the game and they are all important. East will capitalize on the weakness that Riverside has shown to date and pick-up a special team score which proves to be the difference.
DFBFan's Pick - Riverside (0-0) vs. East Chapel Hill (0-1)
East Chapel Hill - 35
Riverside - 28
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