The Falcons for the season have been consistently balanced on offense in the run and pass game, while putting up a bit above average rushing and passing totals in their five victories. But concern rests in their four losses where they have struggled mightily to rush the ball and put up points, scoring exactly 14 points in each of their four losses and managing just under 51 YPG rushing and under 2 YPC in those same losses. Defensively they've been consistent throughout, with arguably their worst performance of the year against the rush, coming this past week when they yielded 310 yards to the Hillside run game, but overall they have been one of the top defenses in the conference. The Rockets, aside from their two victories, have struggled to manufacture offense and points, although against Hillside two weeks ago they played the Hornets tough going into halftime before falling 48-23.
For the Falcons, finding momentum for a probable playoff run is critical at this juncture, and getting a win on Friday against the Rockets is a must for that to occur. Unless some wild outcomes occur with the top teams, it is highly unlikely that the Falcons can break into the top three, so wins against Person this week and next week against Riverside are crucial from the perspective of first guaranteeing a spot and second attempting to better their seeding as much as possible. The Rockets are quite simply on the verge of elimination from a playoff perspective; lose against the Falcons and reaching a top three finish in conference will be impossible with four losses in conference. Moreover, even if they were to win their final two games and end the season at 4-7, with a 4-6 reportable mark, with only two wins in conference play they are projected to have just a 1% chance of making the playoffs as an at-large team. Statistics don't tell us everything, but they sure can hint at things at the very least - and in my book that is a big hint for the Rockets - if you have a desire to see the post-season then a win against the Falcons is a must.
It's late in the week and game time is just around the corner...with that, let's get started.
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Person (Roxboro) (2 - 6 overall, 0 - 3 conference)
Wins - Oxford Webb (3A), Bartlett Yancey (2A); Record of Teams Combined - 5 - 11; PF - 69, PA - 12
Losses - George Washington Danville (Virginia Division 5), Halifax (Virginia Division 5), Ragsdale (4A), Northern Durham (4A), Southern Durham (4A), Hillside (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 29 - 21; PF - 64, PA - 221
Strength of Schedule - 71 of 98 teams; (-36 from Week 3 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Barlett-Yancey. Although only a 2A team, the Rockets victory over Bartlett Yancey was their most convincing to-date. The Rockets put up season highs in points scored, yards rushing, average yards per rush and average yards per pass attempt. Add to that the defense also performed well allowing a season low 59 yards rushing and season low 1.48 YPC.
Previously - Oxford Webb. I don't know if you can necessarily call this a best win, but since only one exists, I'll be kind. What you can take from this is that Person under the new leadership of Coach Geary, (Cedar Ridge's head coach for many years prior), can win and have experienced winning under the new captain. But from that point forward things have been tough going.
Best Loss - Halifax County, VA. First, the Rockets fell short by less than a touchdown. Second, the Rockets started somewhat strong in this game leading at halftime, 9-7, before giving up a 3rd quarter score. But, Halifax has gone on to a 1-3 record with their closest loss being 20 points to North Stafford (VA).
Charles E. Jordan (5 - 4 overall, 1 - 3 conference)
Wins - Orange (3A), Green Hope (4A), Greensboro Grimsley (4A), Enloe (4A), ECH (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 4 - 37; PF - 153, PA - 43
Losses - Panther Creek (4A), Northern Durham (4A), Southern Durham (4A), Hillside (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 24 - 10; PF - 56, PA - 113
Strength of Schedule - 88 of 98 4A teams; (+1 from Week 4 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - East Chapel Hill. This victory is close to that of the Orange victory in dominance, but a few items push this to the Best Win category. First, the Falcons dismantled the East rush defense to the tune of 8.3 YPC and 323 yards. Impressive, whether or not the competition is good or not against the run. This is something you expect from a good or dominant team, if the opposition can't stop the run, you run it and you run it at a blistering pace and 8.3 YPC is blistering. Also impressive was how the Falcon pass defense stepped up and short-circuited Air-Renner. Prior to the contest the Wildcats were averaging over 300 yards a game through the air and were limited to just 174 yards. Yards are important, but even more impressive, the Falcons' allowing just 3.7 YPA through the air. The Falcon pass defense continues to impress.
Previously - Orange. The most dominating game they've played was their first game. The Falcons averaged over six and half yards per carry rushing the ball while picking up close to 15 yards per attempt through the air. Four of their scores were on the ground and complimented by two more through the air. Add in two additional defensive scores, a fumble recovery by Thorpe and an interception return by safety Phil Williamson and the 50-6 tsunami is about as complete as you could be, no less in your first showing out the gate.
Best Loss - Panther Creek. The Catamounts are one of the better teams in the RDU area and with their balanced offensive attack and attacking defense have a solid chance of capturing the competitive Tri-9 crown while also being a legitimate play-off contender. The Falcons turned the ball over in key stretches against PC and in general the Catamounts responded. Add to that, Thorpe exiting the game for the entire fourth quarter of play and the outcome could have been different.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - The Falcons and Rockets have played the following three teams, Northern Durham, Southern Durham and Hillside. In total, they are 0-6 against those three teams. The Falcons played Southern close while the Rockets were blown out 39-0. Against Hillside, both teams were even or close to even at halftime, but fell by more than 20 in both cases after strong performances by the Hornets in the second half. Against, Northern, both teams played close games, with Jordan falling behind very late and eventually losing by a single score. Person was able to rush the ball better in all three contests, while the Falcons fared better on average passing against them. Defensively, the Falcons were able to contain the three offenses on average more consistently than the Rockets. Against common opponents, both teams look relatively even, although a slight edge goes to the Falcons based on stronger defensive play.
Statistically Speaking - The Falcons are near the top of the conference in most statistical categories, while the visiting Rockets find themselves near the bottom in most cases. On the season the Falcons rank third in conference in points scored at just over 23 per game, while the Rockets are dead last at 16.6 PPG. Defensively, the Falcons are also third in the conference giving up 17.3 PPG while the Rockets find themselves in fifth, yielding just under 30 per game.
The Rocket offense has left much to be desired during the season as they transition to a new system under head coach Lou Geary. On the season, they are averaging just over 120 YPG rushing, placing them fifth in the conference, at only 3.8 YPC, good for just sixth in conference. Through the air, they top only Northern Durham, putting up 131 YPG at 6.6 YPA (second in conference). In their six losses they've struggled to move the ball on the ground averaging just under 3 YPC, while in their wins they've put up roughly 6.4 YPC. In the passing game, they've done slightly better in their two wins against Webb and Bartlett Yancey, both non-4A competition.
Person has given up over 1600 yards rushing this season for roughly 204 YPG at a 5.1 YPC clip. These totals place them sixth and fifth in the conference, respectively. Over their six losses they've given up over 6 YPC, while in their two victories they've allowed just 2.4 YPC. Through the air, opponents in both wins and losses have put together roughly 7 YPA. Overall, the Rockets have yielded 150 yards or more rushing in seven of their eight games this year, while yielding 55 or fewer yards passing in four of the eight games.
The Rockets have found it tough to reach the end zone this year, as they have scored just six rushing scores before heading into their contest with Bartlett Yancey where they added an additional five rushing scores to push them to 11 on the season for a 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game average. They've added six additional scores through the air as well as two additional scores via the defense. Defensively, the Rockets have been ripped on the ground, giving up 23 rushing scores placing them seventh in the conference in allowing scores on the ground. These rushing scores have been complemented by eight additional scores through the air and one a piece via special teams and the opposing defense scoring.
The Falcons continue a trend that has been evident since their initial loss to Panther Creek early in the year. For the season, they have been relatively balanced and rank near the top of the conference rushing the ball. But in their losses they have struggled to move the ball on the ground. For the season, they have rushed for close to 1200 yards and thrown for just over 1300 yards. They are averaging just under 132 YPG rushing and 146 YPG passing, placing them third and fifth in conference, respectively. They are currently averaging 4.3 YPC and 6.4 YPA, putting them fourth and third in the conference, respectively. Most telling are the rushing statistics, in their four losses they have yet to rush for more than 87 yards and have been held to just 1.97 YPC in those games, including just 28 yards on 29 carries in their game against Hillside last week for a sub-one-yard per carry average. In the passing game, they've thrown for roughly three yards less per attempt in their losses and have found themselves attempting almost eight more attempts through the air in those losses than compared to their wins. Moreover, a team that has tried to run the ball more than throw in their victories, has found itself averaging just over one attempt more through the air than on the ground in their four losses.
Defensively, the Falcons continue to be one of the top teams in the conference, ranking third in rushing yards per game allowed, fourth in yards per carry allowed, second in passing yards per game allowed and first in passing yards per attempt allowed. The Falcons were hit hard against the run in the Hillside game, giving up a season high 310 yards rushing, but yielded only 60 yards through the air at 4.6 YPA. On the season they are the conference leaders giving up just 4.5 YPA. The defense has kept the Falcons in games throughout the year and have typically only bent, but against the Hornets specifically, multiple scores were set-up by miscues offensively that led to a short field for the Hornet attack.
The Falcons are one of the more balanced teams when it comes to scoring tendencies, putting the ball in 13 times on the ground to 14 times through the air. Their defense has also provided some firepower, putting the ball in the end zone four times, ranking them tied for tops in the league along with Northern Durham. Defensively, after five rushing scores by the Hornets last week, the Falcons are giving up 12 scores on the ground and six additional scores through the air. They have also given up one special teams score and two scores due to offensive miscues.
All Those Other Items
With only two wins on the season, the Rockets are in desperate need of a win - and a 4A win at that. The Rockets have yet to post a victory against a 4A opponent. On the flip side, the Falcons are in need of a victory against a team with more than one win on the season. Four of Jordan's five victories have come against teams with only one win, Green Hope, their fifth victory is win less on the year. The Rockets appear to be playing better ball of late, taking down Bartlett-Yancey in convincing fashion and playing Hillside well in the first half before crumbling to the Hornet attack in the second half. Jordan has played tough competition of late and fallen short, not being able to muster a consistent rushing attack and placing the defense in tough situations. For both teams, a loss tonight would make it impossible to reach .500 in conference play and put them as one of the bottom teams in the conference, while a win at the very least keeps their hopes alive of being middle of pack.
The Falcons have been a stronger team in the first half, putting up roughly four more points per game heading to halftime, but their strength is defensively where they have yielded just over five points per game going into the half, while the Rockets are giving up over 16 a game.
The Final Analysis
Other than record, which shows a five win team taking on a two win team, this game appears close in many regards. Offensively, the Falcons have a slight edge, but only slightly. In their wins, the Rockets are rushing the ball for close to 196 YPG, while the Falcons are rushing for 197 YPG, but both teams have had trouble duplicating those efforts in their losses. In the passing game the Falcons have been consistent in putting up between 137 to 154 YPG and both teams average roughly the same number of yards per attempt. The biggest differences may come on the defensive side of the ball where the Falcons continue to control the sky, allowing a league low 4.5 YPA. Against the rush, both teams are close, with the Falcons holding just a slight edge. Moreover, although both teams are close in the yardage they yield on the ground, the Falcons have stiffened when it comes to scoring defense, and are only allowing 12 rushing scores to Person's 23 on the ground.
The road trip south for Roxboro, won't be insignificant, especially if the Falcons can capitalize early and put some distance between themselves and the Rockets, allowing the Falcon defense to benefit from forced passing, which will play even more to their strength. Both teams will work to establish their running games and whomever is able to reach that goal more effectively will have the best chance of getting a win. The Jordan defense is the one element that stands out and you would think as they play their last home game in their place tonight, they'll rise to the occasion. Look for a close game with the fourth quarter and each possession being critically important to the outcome of the game.
DFBFan's Pick - Person (0-3) at Jordan (1-3)
Jordan - 21
Person - 13
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