Northern Durham has the unenviable task of traveling up Roxboro Road to the 'Rock' to take on the Person Rockets. How unenviable that task is, other than the 10 degree drop in temperature compared to Durham, is definitely debatable. Both teams enter the contest with only one win to their overall record, which may indicate to some that this game simply be placed to the back-page, but signs are evident that Coach Sullivan and staff at Northern are beginning to right a ship that has been battered over the past five to six years.
What I love about the game is that even in this contest of 1-4 Northern against 1-3 Person, the stories are many about how the game can and might go...with that said, let's get started!
Where they Stand Entering the Game
Northern Durham (1-4 overall)
Wins - Rocky Mount (3A); Record of Teams Combined - 2-3; PF - 39, PA - 14
Losses - Middle Creek (4A), Greensboro Page (4A), Millbrook (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 18-2; PF - 65, PA - 115
Strength of Schedule - 16 of 98 4A teams (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Rocky Mount. That's easy when you only have one win to your name. Kidding aside, in 2009 they fell to Rocky Mount at home, while this year they traveled east of Raleigh and came away with a victory.
Best Loss - Wake Forest-Rolesville. The Cougars have dominated local area football for a few years now and there was little reason for folks outside of the Northern camp to expect a close affair between these two, but at home in newly renovated Durham County Stadium, the Knights played a spirited game eventually falling to currently 5-0 WFR, 26 to 29.
Person (Roxboro) (1-3 overall)
Wins - Oxford Webb (3A); Record of Teams Combined - 3-2; PF - 21, PA - 0
Losses - George Washington Danville (Virginia Division 5), Halifax (Virginia Division 5), Ragsdale (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 8-5; PF - 28, PA - 107
Strength of Schedule - 54 of 98 teams (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Oxford Webb. I don't know if you can necessarily call this a best win, but since only one exists, I'll be kind. What you can take from this is that Person under the new leadership of Coach Geary, (Cedar Ridge's head coach for many years prior), can win and have experienced winning under the new captain. But from that point forward things have been tough going.
Best Loss - Halifax County, VA. First, the Rockets fell short by less than a touchdown. Second, the Rockets started somewhat strong in this game leading at halftime, 9-7, before giving up a 3rd quarter score. But, Halifax has gone on to a 1-3 record with their closest loss being 20 points to North Stafford (VA).
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - Northern and Person to this point have not faced any common opponents. The closest connection is Greensboro Page and Ragsdale. Person fell to Ragsdale last week, while Northern fell to Page earlier this year. Page and Ragsdale played as well, with Page losing a close one 35-38. Northern fell to Page by 10 while Person didn't fair quite as well against Ragsdale falling 7-52. First impression - indicates an even match-up between Page and Ragsdale. Whereas the out of conference games showed a much greater disparity with Person getting the short end of the stick and 7 to 52 debacle.
Statistically Speaking - In Northern's four losses, they have averaged 16.25 points to 28.75 points to the opposition. Person in their three losses, have averaged 9.33 points to 35.67 points.
The Knights offensively in their losses have been relatively balanced, rushing the ball 104 times to 94 attempts through the air. On the ground they've averaged about three and half yards per carry while they've picked up about five and three quarters through the air per attempt. In comparison to their victory against Rocky Mount these numbers are not drastically different. They ran the ball 31 times while attempting 30 passes. And the averages although higher, are only about a half a yard more in both cases. From an offensive perspective, win or lose they've been balanced and picked up about the same amount of yardage per attempt.
Defensively, the Knights have given up almost 800 yards on the ground in their losses and over 450 yards through the air. Per game that amounts to 197 yards on the ground in their losses versus 113 in the victory against Rocky Mount. Through the air they allowed a paltry 59 yards to Rocky Mount while giving up almost double against their other four opponents (113 yards passing per game). Of greater interest are the averages. In their losses, they have given up almost five and half yards per carry versus just under three yards against Rocky Mount. In the passing game the disparity is similar, giving up over seven yards per attempt versus three and a quarter against Rocky Mount.
The Knights defense in their losses have given up nine touchdowns rushing to four in the air. They've also been hit by a special team and two defensive scores. On the offensive side of the ball they've averaged two passing scores over all of their games, while they've seen only two rushing scores in their four losses compared to three in their victory over Rocky Mount.
The Rockets have also been fairly balanced offensively in their three losses, rushing the ball 82 times to 71 attempts through the air. In the air they've averaged about seven and half per attempt while on the ground they averaged just under three yards per carry in their three losses. In the Webb victory they rushed the ball twice as much as they passed. Their rushing numbers were much improved at four and half per carry while the passing numbers dropped to about five yards per attempt. On the surface these numbers indicate that the Person attack would much prefer to use the ground attack as its staple, but due to stout defenses and early deficits went to the air, especially against Danville, more than they'd like.
Defensively, the Rockets have given up around 182 yards on the ground per game in their losses while allowing 54 yards in the air. Against Webb, they gave up 150 yards rushing and no yards through the air. The rushing averages between wins and losses show almost six yards per carry in the losses to about three and a quarter in their victory. Clearly, Webb isn't into throwing the ball and the averages are somewhat moot in that case. It's reasonable to assert that Person's rushing defense was better against Webb due to the Warriors lack of a passing threat.
The Rockets have given up 11 touchdowns rushing in their three losses to only two through the air and have allowed one special team score. Offensively they've scored a total of four touchdowns in their three losses compared to three touchdowns in their win against Webb. They've averaged about one touchdown through the air in all of their games. Win, lose or draw, they haven't scored a ton in the first half, averaging a touchdown or less in all four of their games.
All Those Other Items
Both teams have not had the best of times in kicking extra points, in a number of games they've seen kicks missed and blocked. Northern has seen one of their fumbles returned for a score as well as an interception for a touchdown.
Against Middle Creek, Northern set the Mustangs up with a short field twice, leading to two scores. Add to that a botched punt attempt that allowed for a Mustang recovery and score and it's easy to see how a game can get away from you very quickly if you don't protect the ball.
Rocky Mount returned the turnover favor for the Knights throwing five interceptions and one fumble.
The turnover bug was present against Greensboro Page as well with a total of four interceptions and the aforementioned PAT issues with a total of three failed conversions.
In the Millbrook loss, Northern played even early, but after drawing even at seven a piece, opened the following defensive series with an opening touchdown run by five-star recruit Keith Marshall. Momentum clearly went the way of the Wildcats as the following kick-off saw a mishap for the Knights turn into a short field for the Wildcats and quick score, pushing the difference to two scores. Northern had a number of passes intercepted in this game as well.
WFR scored two of their touchdowns through the air against the Knights? Yes, through the air. Two things to note, first that the Knight defense stiffened a bit against the run, but it also shows that the play-action pass worked well against a defense focused on stopping the run. One of Northern's scores was set-up by a WFR fumble deep in their own territory.
Person has been in the giving mood as well. Specifically through the air, with two picks against Danville, two against Halifax and one against Ragsdale. They've also fumbled the ball a good bit. Also of interest are two of the scores in the Webb victory came on a short field.
In the Danville contest the Rockets found themselves down 41 to 6 going into halftime, while Ragsdale mounted a substantial lead early in the 3rd quarter and played back-ups throughout the remainder of the game while still scoring two to three times.
The Final Analysis
Both teams have given the ball up more than some would like to see in an entire season. Both teams struggle to convert PATs. Both teams have provided the opposition with a short field and paid for it while benefiting when the same was provided to them. On the surface, it appears that Northern has played the tougher schedule of the two and in general, even in their losses have been in games. Person on the other hand has been blown out in two of their three losses and in their victory benefited greatly from miscues that set-up a short field on two scores while facing an offense that was one dimensional from the beginning.
Even with the overall record and turnovers, Northern has been balanced offensively and although not prolific in either the running or passing game have been consistent with solid numbers rushing the ball. That doesn't bode well for the Rocket defense which has seen its demise in the Danville and Ragsdale games due to steady and consistent rushing attacks. No secret that the Northern defense has struggled in their losses, short field or not, giving up almost twice as much yardage per attempt in both the rushing and passing game.
Person appears to be a team that would like to rush the ball, but in their three losses have shown that if the rushing attack is ineffective they'll move to the passing attack and other than putting up yardage, that hasn't been necessarily a good thing as they have averaged only one touchdown through the air over all of their games (while giving the ball up through the air).
As with almost every contest, turnovers and field position will be critical. Whomever protects the ball has a significant advantage. Look for Northern to score at least twice through the air while Person should put up at least one score of their own through the air. Northern will attempt to be balanced on offense and if things go their way look for them to put up one to two more scores on the ground. If Person finds itself in a tight game look for more of a rushing attack from them, but if the game begins to get away from them, look for more attempts through the air. Either way, unless the Knights give the ball up deep in their own territory, don't look for the Rockets to go crazy via the ground attack, possibly one score on the ground seems to be in character for what we've seen so far with the Rockets. Northern's secondary saw itself victimized by the pass against WFR while picking off a number of passes including one returned for a score in their other contests. If Northern finds itself ahead and Person moves to more of a passing attack, look for the Knights to steal a few through the air.
In many ways this could be an evenly matched contest, but Northern appears to have the advantage at this point in the season.
DFBFan's Pick - Northern Durham at Person
Northern Durham - 27
Person - 13
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