Southern may be 2-6 overall, but they have played a killer schedule and aside from Northern Durham have taken on the perceived top dogs in the PAC-6 coming away 1-1 in those contests. Each of their games have been close or games where at one point or another they had a chance to make a few plays and come out with a victory. Their defense has played well throughout and their offense over the past few games has gained new life. On the other sideline is a Riverside team that also played a schedule with a few tough teams including Garner, Wakefield and Wake Forest-Rolesville. But the difference becomes more clear in comparing these two teams with only three wins between them when you see that in those games against Riverside's tougher competition they were held scoreless and gave up 42, 27 and 40 respectively. In many ways the Pirates have struggled throughout the year, while the Spartans have been close against very tough competition, only to fall short when the final whistle was quieted.
Regardless of what anyone thinks about either team's past performances in relation to the level of competition, they are still in similar boats to the outside world - namely the playoff world. The brutal reality is that to make the playoffs you need to either finish in the top three in conference or earn an at-large berth and to do that you have to pick up at least four wins on the season. For Riverside, they have four games remaining on the schedule, so at the bare minimum they need to put together three wins and the road doesn't get any easier after playing Southern. For Southern Durham, they only have three games remaining, with contests against Northern Durham and East Chapel Hill still on the slate. The point is pretty clear - both teams need a W tonight to meet their end goals, first to contend for the PAC-6 crown and second to make the playoffs.
We're getting close to game time...so let's get started!
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Riverside - (1 - 6 overall; 1 - 1 conference)
Wins - East Chapel Hill (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 1 - 6; PF - 40, PA - 23
Losses - Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Apex (4A), Chapel Hill (3A), Garner (4A), Wakefield (4A), Northern Durham (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 27 - 18; PF - 88, PA - 216
Strength of Schedule - 63 of 98 4A teams; (-1 since Week 3 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Even if the Wildcats are 1-6, a win is a win and when you haven't captured one the record doesn't matter. The Pirates placed two rushers over the century mark and piled up 246 rushing yards at a blistering 7.7 YPC average. Riverside was efficient through the air as well, passing for a respectable 121 yards for almost 9 YPA. The defense also stepped up, posting its best overall performance, limiting the Wildcats to only 3.2 YPC and 5 YPA, much improved from their statistics in their five previous losses.
Best Loss - Chapel Hill. The Pirates put up their best rushing performance of the 2010 year against the Tigers, rushing for 242 yards and averaging a stellar seven plus yards a carry. Through the air, Riverside had their second best passing performance of the season with 130 yards. Defensively, the Pirates were about average, although they were outstanding in the second half, limiting the Tigers to only nine points. Down 7 to 22 at the half, the Pirates showed their tenacity and credit to the Pirate coaching staff and leadership within to battle back in the second half and only fall by three, 28-31.
Southern Durham - (2 - 6 overall, 2 - 1 conference)
Wins - Person (4A), Jordan (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 6 - 9; PF - 67, PA - 14
Losses - JH Rose (4A), Middle Creek (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Douglas Byrd (4A), Millbrook (4A), Hillside (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 37 - 7; PF - 82, PA - 120
Strength of Schedule - 15 of 98 4A teams; (-2 from Week 3 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Person. It was clear after seeing the Spartans in person that what we had expected was at least in part true. They had played top-notch competition and simply were unable to get that last first down or negate a late penalty or turnover to get a win. That all changed when they stepped onto the field against a Rocket team that simply didn't have the fire-power or athletic ability to compete. The Spartans exploded on the offensive side of the ball, looking like a completely different team, with 264 yards rushing and over 7 YPC, while adding 160 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Defensively, a fast an athletic group, shined, limiting the Rocket rush attack to under 3 YPC
Best Loss - Hillside. We know Southern has played an incredible schedule, now considered by computer-guru Pasteur the #1 toughest schedule in 4A ball and oh by the way, #1 overall for every school in the state of NC, all classifications (prior to Hillside game). On Friday night, they did what they've done all year long, play tough, competitive football against quality teams and then find themselves in the position late to get their first victory of the 2010 season against arguably one of the top 10 4A teams in the state. Statistically, it wasn't a great night for the Spartans as they were only better than their season averages in the rush per attempt category, picking up 5.2 YPC versus a season average of 3.0 YPC. Some could argue taking Judd's 80 yard run out of the mix would show that statistically they really struggled (it was a bit of an outlier) and those folks would have a valid gripe. Still, the Spartans did what they needed as the game progressed based on where the game was in that moment and almost took the victory.
Previously - Byrd. Almost all of Southern's defeats have been competitive, but the contest against Byrd had the Spartans leading 7-6 at halftime and it wasn't until late that Byrd made the plays to take home the victory. The Spartan offense picked up a season high of 224 yards through the air and had their second best rushing total of the year although in both cases they had a high number of attempts. Defensively the Spartans limited Byrd to just over 200 yards of offense. As with most of their losses they appear to be close, but not close enough to pulling out the W.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - Both teams took on Wake Forest-Rolesville earlier in the year, one of the top teams in the area. The Pirates were dismantled, falling 40-0, they were held to negative yardage rushing and just 3.8 YPA through the air. The Cougars were ahead 28-0 at halftime. The Spartans lost as well, but put up a bit more of a fight falling 24-17, even though they found themselves in a 21-0 hole heading into halftime. The Spartans used their athleticism to pick up big yardage in the passing game against the Cougars, averaging close to 8 YPA and limited a very strong Cougar rushing attack to just around 4.5 YPC (which may still sound high, unless you've seen the Cougars rushing attack, then we'll be on the same page). Initial estimates point to Southern having a significant advantage based on this common thread.
Statistically Speaking - The tale of the tape on these two teams comes down to defense as neither team has been fantastic on offense. Southern ranks near the bottom of the PAC-6 putting up just under 19 PPG, Riverside is even further down the list putting up just over 18 PPG. But on the defensive side of the ball the Spartans have stood tall, as the third best defense in points allowed at just under 17 PPG. Riverside has been challenged when attempting to stop the opposition, landing them near the bottom of the league at just over 34 PPG.
Riverside's offense has struggled to move the ball during the 2010 season and as a result has found themselves behind early and often. The Pirate rushing attack ranks fifth in the PAC-6 in roughly 104 YPG and they are further down the list at sixth with just 3.6 YPC. They've done better in the passing game where they average roughly 155 YPG, but they've used a high number of attempts to reach those totals and as a result are sixth in the conference at 6.1 YPA. In their six losses they've found the task of running the ball to be more than a little difficult as they have averaged just 2.8 YPC. In four of their six losses they had 65 or fewer yards rushing the ball.
Defensively the Pirates have struggled enough to not help an offensive unit that has also hit a few bumps in the road. Riverside is middle of the conference against the rush allowing just under 5 YPC and 175 YPG. They haven't been as fortunate with their pass defense, allowing close to 9 YPA and a league worst 164 YPG through the air. They've seen the third highest number of attempts thrown their way, which makes sense based on the relative porosity of this portion of the defense. Against the rush, they've allowed 100 yards or more in six of their seven games and 196 or more yards rushing in four of the seven games. Through the air they've given up 100 or more yards in all of their games but one and have allowed opposing offenses to average 10 or more yards per attempt in four the seven games.
Helped by a big effort against East Chapel Hill, where they scored six times, the Pirates have rushed for 10 scores and added another six through the air. Their 10 rushing scores is good for third place in the conference behind Hillside and Northern Durham. They have also added two scores via their defense. Unfortunately the defense has had trouble stopping opposing teams from crossing the goal line, specifically on the ground where they have yielded 20 scores putting them in fifth place in rushing touchdowns allowed. They've also allowed seven scores through the air and given up two scores due to offensive miscues. To add to the deluge, special teams have hurt them as well, as they have given up four scores, putting them last in the PAC-6.
The Spartans have had their own troubles when its come to moving the ball, most notably on the ground where they average 110 YPG at 3.96 YPC, placing them just one slot ahead of Riverside at fourth in the conference total rushing yards per game and fifth in the conference in yards per carry. The difference for the Spartans has been over their past three games where they have rushed for 157, 264 and 149 yards. They've averaged 5.4, 7.3 and 4.5 YPC in those games. For their two victories they are averaging 206 YPG rushing and 6 YPC a significant difference from their losses. Through the air, the Spartans rank near the bottom of the conference putting up 151 YPG at 6.3 YPA. In both their wins and losses they have been consistently in the same ranges.
The Spartans D makes all the difference. They rank in the top three against the rush and pass in the conference. Southern has given up 153 YPG rushing at 4.2 YPC (3rd) and 103 YPG passing at 5.9 YPA (2nd). Even more impressive is over their past two victories they are allowing just under 59 YPG rushing at a paltry 1.9 YPC. Against the pass they have been slightly better in their two victories as opposed to their six losses.
The Southern offense has been balanced, scoring nine times on the ground to 10 times through the air, placing them fifth in the conference for both categories. They have also scored once on special teams and once on defense, both scores coming last week against Jordan (kick-off after Jordan's first score and interception to close out the game). On the defensive side they've given up 12 scores on the ground and seven through the air as well as yielding one score due to an offensive miscue. Their rushing and passing touchdowns allowed rank third in the conference behind Jordan and Hillside.
All Those Other Items
There are a number of similarities between these two including that they both are scoring in the 18 point per game category. Or that their defenses have only allowed seven passing scores. Or that going into halftime, Southern has averaged 8.5 points while Riverside has averaged 8 points. In the rushing department, Southern ranks fourth in the conference in yards per game, while Riverside ranks fifth. In yards per carry they are fifth and sixth, respectively. They are similarly fifth and sixth in yards per attempt as well. Both teams have played some tough competition and fallen short. But it seems, that is where the similarities end, and the differences begin.
Southern has been in almost all of the games they've played this year, while Riverside, against their better competition has been dismantled. The Spartan defense has been strong, ranking in the top three in both rushing and pass defense categories while the Pirates are ranked near the bottom of the conference. In Southern's recent winning streak they have been dominating both in rushing the ball as well as in shutting down opposing teams rush attack. And although both teams have scored about the same number of points heading into halftime, Riverside has given up almost double the number of points that Southern has entering the second half, 12 to 25.
The Spartans are physical and athletic and in seeing both teams on the field that difference should come through in the overall speed of the game and how the Spartans will be able to compress the field of play on defense against the Riverside offense. The Spartans are lightening fast in their special teams and the Pirates have been hit hard in that category giving up four scores this year, equally both good and bad depending on the side you decide to sit on this evening.
The sense is that Southern understands what they have ahead of themselves and records aside, know that to reach their goal, a goal that they have seen from the beginning, they need another victory tonight. A loss tonight makes the six losses earlier in the season even more irrelevant. Whereas a victory and moreover a convincing victory this evening makes the non-conference schedule speak even more loudly in their favor. The Pirates know that their playoff hopes ride in part on tonight's game. They still have a tough schedule ahead and the reality is they are facing a team tonight that has not been a prolific scoring machine aside from an anomalous 39 point performance against Person two weeks ago. Coach Spell has spoken about slow starts and tonight would be a great night to start fast against a team that has struggled to score.
The Final Analysis
Call me crazy, but if there is going to be an upset tonight in the PAC-6 then this game is probably your best bet. Why? Southern is certainly riding a high after putting together six tough defeats followed up by a convincing win over Person and tough hard fought win against Jordan last week. As they look through their schedule with Riverside, Northern and East Chapel Hill remaining, it's easy to listen to the media (read blogs like Bull City Football for Starters) and tell themselves they have two wins in the bank and they just need to be ready for that Northern Durham contest to ensure themselves a playoff spot and with a win, second place in conference if Hillside wins out. Well, that could happen - but when teams start thinking that way, good teams start losing and struggling teams steal victories.
No reason not to believe that the Pirates will come out playing their best ball and the question is whether or not a sometimes up-and-down Southern team will come out as the team they've put on the field throughout this season or rather come out as a team we haven't seen yet this year that is a bit overconfident in their abilities. These games are simple in one regard, it's about tackling and blocking and how you do those things at a high level, regardless of opponent. If Southern comes out and tackles and blocks at a high level and Riverside does the same, then the past would indicate that Southern should get themselves their third win, but remember, this is high school ball and anything is possible.
DFBFan's Pick - Riverside (1-1) visits Southern Durham (2-1)
Southern Durham - 27
Riverside - 17
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