Many of those same pundits also felt that with Southern Durham losing so much of their talent base and experience over the past two years that it was only logical to see them drop off a bit. The question was who would challenge and many felt Jordan would be that team. It was clear to many that one of the most dominant players in the PAC-6, T.J. Thorpe, was going to be a big factor in helping Jordan progress. Along with Ragland at Southern and Lee at Hillside, Thorpe was in good company as all three have been heavily recruited and are verbally committed to ACC programs. But it was also clear that in order for the Falcons to contend, other elements of the team would have to contribute to the effort.
But, as we move into the half way point of the conference season, Hillside has mostly performed as expected and found themselves in some close ball games where they found a way to win. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons have either under-performed or perhaps performed to their level. They've knocked off struggling teams, in some cases in close games, and lost to teams like Panther Creek that look to be one of the best in the region if not the state.
Friday's game is clear for both teams - for Jordan, in many ways it's the Alamo for vying for a top three conference position. Without a win tonight, the Falcons will be hard-pressed to compete for a top three finish. On the other side - for Hillside, tonight is about destiny, but in high school ball destiny isn't always a sure thing.
This contest should be a barn-burner, I can't wait...so let's get started.
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Charles E. Jordan (5 - 3 overall, 1 - 2 conference)
Wins - Orange (3A), Green Hope (4A), Greensboro Grimsley (4A), Enloe (4A), ECH (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 4 - 33; PF - 153, PA - 43
Losses - Panther Creek (4A), Northern Durham (4A), Southern Durham (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 13 - 10; PF - 42, PA - 79
Strength of Schedule - 89 of 98 4A teams; (+3 from Week 3 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - East Chapel Hill. This victory is close to that of the Orange victory in dominance, but a few items push this to the Best Win category. First, the Falcons dismantled the East rush defense to the tune of 8.3 YPC and 323 yards. Impressive, whether or not the competition is good or not against the run. This is something you expect from a good or dominant team, if the opposition can't stop the run, you run it and you run it at a blistering pace and 8.3 YPC is blistering. Also impressive was how the Falcon pass defense stepped up and short-circuited Air-Renner. Prior to the contest the Wildcats were averaging over 300 yards a game through the air and were limited to just 174 yards. Yards are important, but even more impressive, the Falcons' allowing just 3.7 YPA through the air. The Falcon pass defense continues to impress.
Previously - Orange. The most dominating game they've played was their first game. The Falcons averaged over six and half yards per carry rushing the ball while picking up close to 15 yards per attempt through the air. Four of their scores were on the ground and complimented by two more through the air. Add in two additional defensive scores, a fumble recovery by Thorpe and an interception return by safety Phil Williamson and the 50-6 tsunami is about as complete as you could be, no less in your first showing out the gate.
Best Loss - Panther Creek. The Catamounts are one of the better teams in the RDU area and with their balanced offensive attack and attacking defense have a solid chance of capturing the competitive Tri-9 crown while also being a legitimate play-off contender. The Falcons turned the ball over in key stretches against PC and in general the Catamounts responded. Add to that, Thorpe exiting the game for the entire fourth quarter of play and the outcome could have been different.
Hillside - (7 - 0 overall, 2 - 0 conference)
Wins - Grimsley (4A), George Washington Danville (Virginia, Division 5), South View (4A), E.E. Smith (4A), Dudley (4A), Southern Durham (4A), Person (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 18 - 34; PF - 286, PA - 82
Losses - None
Strength of Schedule - 52 of 98 4A teams; (-17 from Week 1 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Dudley. The Panthers were ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll and considered by many to be a top contender for the state title. Ranked or not, they were dismantled in all aspects of the game. GT recruit Lee rushed for five touchdowns and added 141 yards through the air while the Hornet defense limited the Dudley offense to just over 100 yards of total offense. Sure, the Hornets have scored more, but there really wasn't any doubt from beginning to end and it was against the toughest opponent to date.
Southern Durham. The victory against the Spartans was not nearly as complete as their contest against Dudley, but they made numerous mistakes and survived to move forward and high-quality teams find ways to do that against high-quality competition.
Best Loss - The one that hasn't occurred yet.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - Both teams have played Grimsley and Southern Durham. Hillside knocked off both teams. They had a slow start against the Whirlies, leading just 16 to 8 at halftime before pulling away for a 42-8 victory. The Southern Durham game was an epic battle that saw the Hornets pull out a victory by a play literally. On the flip side against Grimsley, Jordan played offensively a game statistically very similar to their three losses, while defensively they played more like their five wins. They grabbed the victory 18-13. Against Southern Durham last week, the Falcons fell by two scores although one came on an interception late in the game. The Falcon offense was stymied by the Southern defense, both on the scoreboard and statistically, while Hillside moved the ball well against Southern, only to shoot themselves in the foot multiple times with penalties and turnovers. The initial estimate from these two common opponents is an edge for the Hornets.
Statistically Speaking - The Hornets have been dominating from a statistical perspective this year when you look through the conference, but right behind them in most categories and ahead in a few is Jordan. The Hornets are leading the conference in scoring average at almost 41 PPG while limiting teams to just under 12 PPG, also first in the conference. Not to be out done is Jordan at number two in both of those categories, although their offensive output lags well behind the Hornets, putting up roughly 24 PPG and allowing just over 15 PPG.
The Jordan offense on average per attempt and carry is second in the league in both rushing and passing. They are averaging 4.7 YPC and 7 YPA for 145 YPG rushing and 152 YPG passing. They are near the bottom of the conference in number of passing attempts indicating that when they have thrown they've been highly efficient. Unfortunately for the Falcons, they've been a bit like Jekyl and Hyde when it comes to offense when you compare their wins to losses. Their rushing attack has been shut down in their three losses as they have only been able to muster just over 2 YPC and they are picking up over two yards less per attempt in the passing game as well. The Falcons have run the ball roughly 59% of the time, although there are drastic differences between their wins and losses in their offensive ratios. In their five wins they have run the ball 64% of the time, while in their losses they've run the ball just 49% of the time.
On the defensive side of the ball the Falcons are statistically the top pass defense in the conference allowing just 4.5 YPA and 103 YPG through the air. Against the rush they've been middle of the pack per carry, yielding 4.6 YPC, but are second in conference giving up just 129 YPG rushing. Unlike the drastic differences seen in the offense between wins and losses, the defense has been somewhat more consistent as they have given up roughly the same amount of yardage per rush in both categories. In the passing game, they haven't been as stellar, giving up about 1.5 YPA more in their losses, than in their victories (3.9 YPA).
Reaching the end zone this year has been somewhat balanced as 11 scores have come by ground and another 14 through the air, ranking them second in the league for passing touchdowns per game. They have also put up four scores defensively which ranks them tops with the Hornets. Of interest is that the Falcons have yet to score on special teams this year, something that many thought would be a positive for the Falcons going into the 2010 season. Defensively, the Falcons, similar to their yardage numbers have been top of the league. They are giving up just under one touchdown per game rushing and passing, putting them in the top two spots in conference for those two categories.
The Hornets have been dominant and offense has been a place to showcase that dominance. The Hornets average the most rushing attempts per game for the conference which makes sense based on the assets everyone knew they had coming back this year. To compliment those attempts the Hornets lead the conference with 222 YPG rushing and a solid 6.1 YPC average. In the passing game, the Hornets have been highly efficient. They have attempted the fewest passes per game in conference, yet have the highest yardage per attempt at just under 10 YPA. A great bit of supporting evidence to the fact that defensive coordinators are stacking the line to attempt to combat a powerful Hornet rushing attack. Moreover, although every team in the conference averages more passing attempts per game, the Hornets rank second in the conference in yards gained per game through the air (199 YPG passing).
Defensively, the strength of the Hornets is their front seven and the rush defense. They are tops in the league, allowing just under 4 YPC and 126 YPG rushing. Against the pass, Hillside is middle of the conference giving up almost 110 YPG and 6.6 YPA. (Note: Passing statistics for Greensboro Grimsley were not available for this calculation)
The Hornets have dominated on the ground and that has been their main vehicle for reaching the end zone this year, tallying 24 scores via the turf, which places them first in the league at four touchdowns per game on the ground. The offensive onslaught on the ground has been augmented by eight additional scores through the air, primarily to wide receiver Malloy and they've also scored once through special teams and as mentioned earlier are tied for first in the league with 0.5 touchdowns per game by their defense. Their scoring defense might just be even more dominant than their scoring offense. Ranking first or second in every defensive scoring category. The Hornets are allowing under one score on the ground and one score through the air per game. They have yet to allow a special teams score or a score against their offense. Jordan's pass defense is the only area that trumps the Hillside scoring D, allowing just 0.75 passing touchdowns a game to Hillside's 0.83 per game.
All Those Other Items
It's interesting to see how close statistically the Falcons and Hornets are as they enter the game. It's also interesting to see that Jordan is sporting two losses in conference to the Hornets zero. It points to a good chance for a good game. At the same time, the difference in wins and losses can be a bit more understood when you look at the disparity described earlier concerning Jordan's offensive production in their wins and losses. The differences are drastic and even though the Jordan defense has played fairly consistent and near the top of the league throughout 2010 the lack of offensive production has hurt in tougher games. In Jordan's three losses and game against Grimsley (1-7) where they won by five points the Falcons' best performance on the ground was 3.1 YPC against both Panther Creek and Northern Durham. That would rank them last in the league in rushing, where currently Person is averaging 3.2 YPC on the year. It's clear that as the Falcon rushing attack goes, so goes Wins and Losses, it may be the most important indicator of their success.
You would think that a team that has performed well against the pass wouldn't be thrown upon a ton, but that hasn't been the case for the Falcons. Although they are the number one rated pass defense in the conference, they have also had the most attempts thrown against them. On the flip side, their rush defense is middle of the pack in yards per carry, yet opposing offenses have rushed the ball against them the fewest number of times in comparison to their conference counterparts? Go figure. This is not seen with the Hornets where they rank first against the run and the opposition has decided it not in their best interest to put up attempts against a brick wall.
Both teams have gotten off to quick starts in points scored by halftime in comparison to their total points scored per game. The Falcons have put up 61% of their total by halftime, while the Hornets have tagged the board for 58%. Defensively, both teams have been lock-down in the first half. The Falcons have given up 27% of their points in the first half, while the Hornets have yielded roughly 53% by halftime. Looking more closely at this information, it's evident that although the Jordan defense has done well statistically throughout their games as well as limiting the opposition in the first half, they have been a bit more generous later in the game.
The Final Analysis
If Jordan has any plans of picking up a top three finish in conference, they have to put together a team effort tonight that will to most of the pundits be considered an upset type effort. On the flip side, the Hornets are faced with one of the few above average opponents on their schedule and after two rough showings have the opportunity to clearly state who they are or are not.
This game has always been a rough and tough contest and there is no reason to believe that tonight will be any different. Both defenses are solid and you would expect that points will be tough to come by for both teams. Against slightly better competition, the Hornets have dominated on offense moving the ball at will, but against an athletic Southern team were limited to their lowest point total of the year - showing that pure numbers mean nothing if you can't seal the deal with footsteps in the end zone. Jordan's offense has shown that to run the ball and to run the ball effectively is important for making everything else run appropriately and in that one point you may have much of what this game will be about. Hillside's front seven on defense against the five offensive linemen, tight end and running backs of the Falcons. If the Hornet's can effectively negate any consistency for the Falcon rushing attack with their front seven, then they'll be able to effectively double team Thorpe and company on the edges.
But - I've seen a lot of football and anything can happen. Play makers are just that - they take a play, a design of X's and O's and they make it happen - no matter what. On one side of the ball will be Vad Lee and on the other side T.J. Thorpe, two of the top play makers in the state of North Carolina. How effectively each team's defensive staffs and personnel can contain these two presences will be another important element in the outcome of the contest.
So far this season, Jordan hasn't surprised me, win or lose; while Hillside has brought some concern to who I thought they were after the last two performances and most notably their victory over Person. Tonight's game is a litmus test for the Hornets to see if what they've shown the past two weeks was simply a few coughs in an otherwise very healthy season. In the end, I think Hillside's offense will make too many plays against a solid Falcon defensive unit and on the other side of the ball the Hornets will create too much of a swarm for the Falcons to get in gear. This will be one of the toughest defenses the Falcons have faced this season and against lesser competition they've been stymied. Look for a good game regardless.
DFBFan's Pick - Jordan (1-2) at Hillside (2-0)
Hillside - 29
Jordan - 13
The Jordan offense on average per attempt and carry is second in the league in both rushing and passing. They are averaging 4.7 YPC and 7 YPA for 145 YPG rushing and 152 YPG passing. They are near the bottom of the conference in number of passing attempts indicating that when they have thrown they've been highly efficient. Unfortunately for the Falcons, they've been a bit like Jekyl and Hyde when it comes to offense when you compare their wins to losses. Their rushing attack has been shut down in their three losses as they have only been able to muster just over 2 YPC and they are picking up over two yards less per attempt in the passing game as well. The Falcons have run the ball roughly 59% of the time, although there are drastic differences between their wins and losses in their offensive ratios. In their five wins they have run the ball 64% of the time, while in their losses they've run the ball just 49% of the time.
On the defensive side of the ball the Falcons are statistically the top pass defense in the conference allowing just 4.5 YPA and 103 YPG through the air. Against the rush they've been middle of the pack per carry, yielding 4.6 YPC, but are second in conference giving up just 129 YPG rushing. Unlike the drastic differences seen in the offense between wins and losses, the defense has been somewhat more consistent as they have given up roughly the same amount of yardage per rush in both categories. In the passing game, they haven't been as stellar, giving up about 1.5 YPA more in their losses, than in their victories (3.9 YPA).
Reaching the end zone this year has been somewhat balanced as 11 scores have come by ground and another 14 through the air, ranking them second in the league for passing touchdowns per game. They have also put up four scores defensively which ranks them tops with the Hornets. Of interest is that the Falcons have yet to score on special teams this year, something that many thought would be a positive for the Falcons going into the 2010 season. Defensively, the Falcons, similar to their yardage numbers have been top of the league. They are giving up just under one touchdown per game rushing and passing, putting them in the top two spots in conference for those two categories.
The Hornets have been dominant and offense has been a place to showcase that dominance. The Hornets average the most rushing attempts per game for the conference which makes sense based on the assets everyone knew they had coming back this year. To compliment those attempts the Hornets lead the conference with 222 YPG rushing and a solid 6.1 YPC average. In the passing game, the Hornets have been highly efficient. They have attempted the fewest passes per game in conference, yet have the highest yardage per attempt at just under 10 YPA. A great bit of supporting evidence to the fact that defensive coordinators are stacking the line to attempt to combat a powerful Hornet rushing attack. Moreover, although every team in the conference averages more passing attempts per game, the Hornets rank second in the conference in yards gained per game through the air (199 YPG passing).
Defensively, the strength of the Hornets is their front seven and the rush defense. They are tops in the league, allowing just under 4 YPC and 126 YPG rushing. Against the pass, Hillside is middle of the conference giving up almost 110 YPG and 6.6 YPA. (Note: Passing statistics for Greensboro Grimsley were not available for this calculation)
The Hornets have dominated on the ground and that has been their main vehicle for reaching the end zone this year, tallying 24 scores via the turf, which places them first in the league at four touchdowns per game on the ground. The offensive onslaught on the ground has been augmented by eight additional scores through the air, primarily to wide receiver Malloy and they've also scored once through special teams and as mentioned earlier are tied for first in the league with 0.5 touchdowns per game by their defense. Their scoring defense might just be even more dominant than their scoring offense. Ranking first or second in every defensive scoring category. The Hornets are allowing under one score on the ground and one score through the air per game. They have yet to allow a special teams score or a score against their offense. Jordan's pass defense is the only area that trumps the Hillside scoring D, allowing just 0.75 passing touchdowns a game to Hillside's 0.83 per game.
All Those Other Items
It's interesting to see how close statistically the Falcons and Hornets are as they enter the game. It's also interesting to see that Jordan is sporting two losses in conference to the Hornets zero. It points to a good chance for a good game. At the same time, the difference in wins and losses can be a bit more understood when you look at the disparity described earlier concerning Jordan's offensive production in their wins and losses. The differences are drastic and even though the Jordan defense has played fairly consistent and near the top of the league throughout 2010 the lack of offensive production has hurt in tougher games. In Jordan's three losses and game against Grimsley (1-7) where they won by five points the Falcons' best performance on the ground was 3.1 YPC against both Panther Creek and Northern Durham. That would rank them last in the league in rushing, where currently Person is averaging 3.2 YPC on the year. It's clear that as the Falcon rushing attack goes, so goes Wins and Losses, it may be the most important indicator of their success.
You would think that a team that has performed well against the pass wouldn't be thrown upon a ton, but that hasn't been the case for the Falcons. Although they are the number one rated pass defense in the conference, they have also had the most attempts thrown against them. On the flip side, their rush defense is middle of the pack in yards per carry, yet opposing offenses have rushed the ball against them the fewest number of times in comparison to their conference counterparts? Go figure. This is not seen with the Hornets where they rank first against the run and the opposition has decided it not in their best interest to put up attempts against a brick wall.
Both teams have gotten off to quick starts in points scored by halftime in comparison to their total points scored per game. The Falcons have put up 61% of their total by halftime, while the Hornets have tagged the board for 58%. Defensively, both teams have been lock-down in the first half. The Falcons have given up 27% of their points in the first half, while the Hornets have yielded roughly 53% by halftime. Looking more closely at this information, it's evident that although the Jordan defense has done well statistically throughout their games as well as limiting the opposition in the first half, they have been a bit more generous later in the game.
The Final Analysis
If Jordan has any plans of picking up a top three finish in conference, they have to put together a team effort tonight that will to most of the pundits be considered an upset type effort. On the flip side, the Hornets are faced with one of the few above average opponents on their schedule and after two rough showings have the opportunity to clearly state who they are or are not.
This game has always been a rough and tough contest and there is no reason to believe that tonight will be any different. Both defenses are solid and you would expect that points will be tough to come by for both teams. Against slightly better competition, the Hornets have dominated on offense moving the ball at will, but against an athletic Southern team were limited to their lowest point total of the year - showing that pure numbers mean nothing if you can't seal the deal with footsteps in the end zone. Jordan's offense has shown that to run the ball and to run the ball effectively is important for making everything else run appropriately and in that one point you may have much of what this game will be about. Hillside's front seven on defense against the five offensive linemen, tight end and running backs of the Falcons. If the Hornet's can effectively negate any consistency for the Falcon rushing attack with their front seven, then they'll be able to effectively double team Thorpe and company on the edges.
But - I've seen a lot of football and anything can happen. Play makers are just that - they take a play, a design of X's and O's and they make it happen - no matter what. On one side of the ball will be Vad Lee and on the other side T.J. Thorpe, two of the top play makers in the state of North Carolina. How effectively each team's defensive staffs and personnel can contain these two presences will be another important element in the outcome of the contest.
So far this season, Jordan hasn't surprised me, win or lose; while Hillside has brought some concern to who I thought they were after the last two performances and most notably their victory over Person. Tonight's game is a litmus test for the Hornets to see if what they've shown the past two weeks was simply a few coughs in an otherwise very healthy season. In the end, I think Hillside's offense will make too many plays against a solid Falcon defensive unit and on the other side of the ball the Hornets will create too much of a swarm for the Falcons to get in gear. This will be one of the toughest defenses the Falcons have faced this season and against lesser competition they've been stymied. Look for a good game regardless.
DFBFan's Pick - Jordan (1-2) at Hillside (2-0)
Hillside - 29
Jordan - 13
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