Northern's opponent this week, East Chapel Hill will be coming off their bye-week, after falling to Riverside the week prior. The Wildcats made plays against the Pirates and were up at one point 20-7 before allowing the Pirates ground attack to begin to control the game. A miscue on special teams that led to one Pirate score and the dual rushing efforts of the Pirate backfield eventually overcame the 13 point deficit and allowed Riverside to capture their first win of the 2010 season. East hasn't had trouble scoring this year - the problem has been stopping the opposition. Something they have struggled with in every game this year aside from their victory against Northwood where they allowed just 18 points, compared to close to 40 that they are giving up in their six losses. Don't let the 18 points fool you - the Wildcats defense gave up almost 400 yards of total offense to the Chargers. It may seem like a broken record, but the Wildcats have two options has they move forward. Option A is to begin to stop the opposition. Option B is to score more points.
I'll let them make that decision....but while they are figuring it out, let's get started!
Where They Stand Entering the Game
East Chapel Hill (1 - 6 overall; 0 - 2 conference)
Wins - Northwood (2A); Record of Teams Combined - 4-4; PF - 20, PA - 18
Losses - Cardinal Gibbons (3A), Cedar Ridge (2A), Carrboro (2A), Chapel Hill (3A), Jordan (4A), Riverside (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 27-16; PF - 149, PA - 238
Strength of Schedule - 75 of 98 teams; (-8 from Week 2 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Northwood. Look back over the recent past and there aren't a ton of wins for ECH, so to get one on opening night was huge. Add to that, a new head coach, a new offensive system and there was a lot of reasons why the typically powerful Northwood team should have won the game, but in the end, the Wildcats did what was necessary and came out with a close 20-18 victory despite giving up over 300 yards rushing. The spread attack is there and Renner knows how to implement it with Davis at the controls.
Best Loss - Cedar Ridge. The Wildcat defense has been porous to say the least with regards to stopping opposing teams rush attack, so to only allow just over four yards a carry against the Red Wolves is somewhat of a small victory. Offensively, ECH had their best outing in yards passing topping 350 yards while averaging close to eight yards per attempt. The game was competitive throughout, with Cedar Ridge hold only a six point lead heading into the half.
East Chapel Hill (1 - 6 overall; 0 - 2 conference)
Wins - Northwood (2A); Record of Teams Combined - 4-4; PF - 20, PA - 18
Losses - Cardinal Gibbons (3A), Cedar Ridge (2A), Carrboro (2A), Chapel Hill (3A), Jordan (4A), Riverside (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 27-16; PF - 149, PA - 238
Strength of Schedule - 75 of 98 teams; (-8 from Week 2 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Northwood. Look back over the recent past and there aren't a ton of wins for ECH, so to get one on opening night was huge. Add to that, a new head coach, a new offensive system and there was a lot of reasons why the typically powerful Northwood team should have won the game, but in the end, the Wildcats did what was necessary and came out with a close 20-18 victory despite giving up over 300 yards rushing. The spread attack is there and Renner knows how to implement it with Davis at the controls.
Best Loss - Cedar Ridge. The Wildcat defense has been porous to say the least with regards to stopping opposing teams rush attack, so to only allow just over four yards a carry against the Red Wolves is somewhat of a small victory. Offensively, ECH had their best outing in yards passing topping 350 yards while averaging close to eight yards per attempt. The game was competitive throughout, with Cedar Ridge hold only a six point lead heading into the half.
Northern Durham (4 - 4 overall, 3 - 0 conference)
Wins - Rocky Mount (3A), Person (4A), Jordan (4A), Riverside (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 9 - 20; PF - 128, PA - 69
Losses - Middle Creek (4A), Greensboro Page (4A), Millbrook (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 25 - 4; PF - 65, PA - 115
Strength of Schedule - 43 of 98 4A teams; (-20 since Week 3 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Jordan. The Knights captured a victory against a five win Falcon squad that had previously only fallen to undefeated Panther Creek. The verdict is still out on how good the Falcons really are and thus how good the Knights are for taking them out, but regardless, for a team that won zero games in 2009, this is a big win that puts them in sole possession of first place in the conference after two weeks. The Knight rushing attack was clicking, galloping for 191 yards and a 5.2 YPC average. Defensively, the Knights did well, halting the Falcons for just 87 yards rushing at a paltry 3.1 YPC average.
Previously - Rocky Mount. Even with the victory against Person, the Rocky Mount win is still a better victory when you look at how the Knights played statistically. Rushing production was the only place where Northern did better than how they performed against Rocky Mount.
Best Loss - Wake Forest-Rolesville. The Cougars have dominated local area football for a few years now and there was little reason for folks outside of the Northern camp to expect a close affair between these two, but at home in newly renovated Durham County Stadium, the Knights played a spirited game eventually falling to currently 5-0 WFR, 26 to 29.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - Northern and East have both played Jordan and Riverside to-date. Northern defeated both teams while East has lost to both. East was soundly defeated by Jordan in week one of conference play 36-7, while Northern squeaked out a seven point victory over the Falcons. Northern handled the Pirates, leading by 13 at the half, while East had a 13 point lead early on Riverside before falling by 17. Both teams ran the ball well against Jordan tallying roughly 5+ YPC, while East's passing attack faltered in both games in comparison to earlier performances. The East defense struggled to stop either the Falcons or Pirates, yielding massive chunks of yards both on the ground and through the air. Northern completely shut down both Jordan's and Riverside's rushing attacks, but were not as solid against the pass last week against Riverside yielding close to 10 YPA.
Statistically Speaking - The Knights have continued their offensive explosion that has seen them move to first in the conference race. Against the Pirates, Northern posted another 190+ yard rushing performance and an incredible defensive performance against the Pirate backfield allowing just 19 total rushing yards for a less than 1 YPC average. On the season the Knights are putting up just over 24 points a game while allowing the opposition 23 a game. East Chapel Hill continues to struggle defensively and their offensive numbers have steadily declined in conference play. Similar to the Knights they are scoring just over 24 points a game, but it's been a field day for the opposition as they've allowed close to 37 per game.
Air-Renner has put up some passing numbers - to the tune of almost 1700 yards passing in seven games for 238 YPG. On the ground the Wildcats have kept teams honest averaging just over 100 YPG at a reasonable 4.3 YPC average. But, in conference play those numbers have dropped. Against Jordan, the Wildcats managed just 3.7 YPA in the passing game and followed that up with only 5 YPA against Riverside, both well below the 6.3 YPA they are averaging on the year. In the rushing department, although they were able to manage 110 yards against the Pirates they had to burn almost 11 more attempts than their season average to accomplish that, resulting in just 3.2 YPC. On the season, the Wildcats offensive breakdown has them passing roughly 62% of the time.
The defense has been a definite weakness for the Wildcats and their two conference games are case studies in that weakness. Against Jordan and Riverside, they allowed 569 rushing yards at close to 8 YPC. Things didn't get much better in the passing department as they gave up 10.3 YPA and 8.6 YPA against the Falcons and Pirates, respectively. Going into game eight, they've given up 2196 yards rushing for roughly 314 YPG and although they are only allowing 119 YPG passing they've been burnt for close to 10 YPA.
The Wildcats have made it to the end zone primarily through the air so far this season, tallying 17 passing touchdowns to seven on the ground. East is averaging almost 2.5 passing scores a game and one on the ground. Defensively it's no surprise that they've given up most of their scores on the ground. Twenty-four rushing touchdowns at almost 3.5 per game. They have also given up 10 scores through the air and an additional special teams score, a kick-off return against Cedar Ridge and a defensive score against Riverside.
The Knights are having a bit of an offensive renaissance, especially in the running game where they have rushed for 161 yards or more against all three conference opponents. During that span they've posted a 4.7 YPC average or better. Overall the Knights have been balanced in their offensive output posting 1044 yards rushing to 977 through the air. They've attacked their opponents by running the ball roughly 58% of the time and that percentage is a bit higher in their four victories at roughly 63% of the time. They are averaging 131 YPG on the ground to 122 YPG through the air.
The Northern defense has also stepped up during conference play and that has been revealed most blatantly in their rush defense. Against their last three opponents they've yielded 3.2, 3.1 and 0.9 YPC and in their four wins they've halted opposing running games to just 2.7 YPC. On the year they are allowing 141 YPG rushing (4.1 YPC), while in their victories they've allowed just 84 YPG. Northern's pass defense has given up over a 1000 yards on the year for roughly 132 YPG (6.6 YPA). In their victories they've given up 151 YPG, but that includes 108, 154 and 285 in their final three games. In both the Jordan and Riverside contests the Knights effectively derailed any running game for either team and forced both to go to the air. In the Riverside game especially, the Knights had a comfortable lead and many of the 285 yards came late.
Northern's offense has been balanced when it comes to scoring, posting 12 rushing scores to 14 passing scores. They've also added an impressive three defensive scores on the season. Opposing teams have scored 13 times on the ground to nine through the air, while adding an additional four scores through special teams and defensive scores.
All Those Other Items
Unlike many games we've seen so far this year, this game looks to be one where two teams are going in very different directions. The only caveat to that hypothesis is East's recent bye week and the fact that against Riverside, although they lost by 17 they were ahead early be almost two scores. On the other side, Northern appears to be clicking on all cylinders or at least in two very important ones - rushing offense and rush defense. How Northern handles a game that everyone will say they should win and win by a lot will be very telling of where the team is from a pyschological perspective. As we've spoken about before every game means something and how you play each of those games tells a bit more about what the DNA of that team is for a given season. Northern has shown growth and in their three conference wins they've shown different elements of who they are - against Person, they defeated an old rival that always can make things interesting; against Jordan they defeated a team that most folks said was better than them; against Riverside they beat a team that most folks thought was most likely not quite as good as Northern. Against East, they'll face a team that most folks will say is a heavy underdog to the Knights. How they handle that and ultimately how they execute will write another chapter of the 2010 season for the Knights.
East finds itself needing W's to have a shot at the playoffs and unfortunately sitting directly in their path is the top of the conference. Air-Renner has shown promise on offense, whether in piling up yardage or scoring, but unfortunately for the win-loss ratio, they've been heavily biased to the loss side of things due to spotty defensive play. It's hard to see the Wildcats making significant changes over the bye-week that would halt the hemorraghing on that side of the ball, but anything is possible in high school ball! East has fallen behind early in many of their games sporting a 12 to 22 point differential at the half and against the Knights, they'll need to put points up early on a high percentage of their possessions to get them in a place where they have a chance going into the second half to make a play or two to steal a victory.
The Final Analysis
Northern is rolling and East is - coming off a bye - so where do you go in a game that seems so mis-matched on the surface. For me, go to the facts. It's clear that Northern is getting in a groove rushing the ball out of their spread looks and when you look at how East has been unsuccessful in halting opposing rushing attacks it's logical to postulate that Northern will be able to control the clock and do what they like from that perspective. East hasn't faired much better against the pass and although the Knights have produced modest passing numbers so far this year, you would imagine that they will be able to complete passes when they need to - if they even need to based on how they do rushing the ball.
On the other side of the ball, East has faired well offensively in general, although in their conference games their strength of passing the ball has been limited. This would make sense if the only evidence of this fact was against Jordan who has shown to be a strong team from a pass defense perspective, but against Riverside who gives up on average close to 10 YPA, the Wildcats were limited to under 5 YPA. It should be noted that against Riverside, quarterback Drew Davis left the game in the second quarter with an apparent shoulder injury. He returned in the third quarter and after a sack, left the game again. Whether Davis is at 100% or not will be a huge factor in what the Wildcats will be able to accomplish come Friday night.
Assuming Davis plays, look for East to score, but not to the extent they've done throughout the year. Unless, Northern completely overlooks the Wildcats, I see them continuing to run the ball well and find the end zone a number of times on the ground. They'll augment those scores with some strikes through the air and walk away from Durham County Memorial Stadium at 4-0 in conference play and still in first place.
DFBFan's Pick - East Chapel Hill (0-2) at Northern Durham (3-0)
Northern Durham - 42
East Chapel Hill - 14
Common Opponents - Northern and East have both played Jordan and Riverside to-date. Northern defeated both teams while East has lost to both. East was soundly defeated by Jordan in week one of conference play 36-7, while Northern squeaked out a seven point victory over the Falcons. Northern handled the Pirates, leading by 13 at the half, while East had a 13 point lead early on Riverside before falling by 17. Both teams ran the ball well against Jordan tallying roughly 5+ YPC, while East's passing attack faltered in both games in comparison to earlier performances. The East defense struggled to stop either the Falcons or Pirates, yielding massive chunks of yards both on the ground and through the air. Northern completely shut down both Jordan's and Riverside's rushing attacks, but were not as solid against the pass last week against Riverside yielding close to 10 YPA.
Statistically Speaking - The Knights have continued their offensive explosion that has seen them move to first in the conference race. Against the Pirates, Northern posted another 190+ yard rushing performance and an incredible defensive performance against the Pirate backfield allowing just 19 total rushing yards for a less than 1 YPC average. On the season the Knights are putting up just over 24 points a game while allowing the opposition 23 a game. East Chapel Hill continues to struggle defensively and their offensive numbers have steadily declined in conference play. Similar to the Knights they are scoring just over 24 points a game, but it's been a field day for the opposition as they've allowed close to 37 per game.
Air-Renner has put up some passing numbers - to the tune of almost 1700 yards passing in seven games for 238 YPG. On the ground the Wildcats have kept teams honest averaging just over 100 YPG at a reasonable 4.3 YPC average. But, in conference play those numbers have dropped. Against Jordan, the Wildcats managed just 3.7 YPA in the passing game and followed that up with only 5 YPA against Riverside, both well below the 6.3 YPA they are averaging on the year. In the rushing department, although they were able to manage 110 yards against the Pirates they had to burn almost 11 more attempts than their season average to accomplish that, resulting in just 3.2 YPC. On the season, the Wildcats offensive breakdown has them passing roughly 62% of the time.
The defense has been a definite weakness for the Wildcats and their two conference games are case studies in that weakness. Against Jordan and Riverside, they allowed 569 rushing yards at close to 8 YPC. Things didn't get much better in the passing department as they gave up 10.3 YPA and 8.6 YPA against the Falcons and Pirates, respectively. Going into game eight, they've given up 2196 yards rushing for roughly 314 YPG and although they are only allowing 119 YPG passing they've been burnt for close to 10 YPA.
The Wildcats have made it to the end zone primarily through the air so far this season, tallying 17 passing touchdowns to seven on the ground. East is averaging almost 2.5 passing scores a game and one on the ground. Defensively it's no surprise that they've given up most of their scores on the ground. Twenty-four rushing touchdowns at almost 3.5 per game. They have also given up 10 scores through the air and an additional special teams score, a kick-off return against Cedar Ridge and a defensive score against Riverside.
The Knights are having a bit of an offensive renaissance, especially in the running game where they have rushed for 161 yards or more against all three conference opponents. During that span they've posted a 4.7 YPC average or better. Overall the Knights have been balanced in their offensive output posting 1044 yards rushing to 977 through the air. They've attacked their opponents by running the ball roughly 58% of the time and that percentage is a bit higher in their four victories at roughly 63% of the time. They are averaging 131 YPG on the ground to 122 YPG through the air.
The Northern defense has also stepped up during conference play and that has been revealed most blatantly in their rush defense. Against their last three opponents they've yielded 3.2, 3.1 and 0.9 YPC and in their four wins they've halted opposing running games to just 2.7 YPC. On the year they are allowing 141 YPG rushing (4.1 YPC), while in their victories they've allowed just 84 YPG. Northern's pass defense has given up over a 1000 yards on the year for roughly 132 YPG (6.6 YPA). In their victories they've given up 151 YPG, but that includes 108, 154 and 285 in their final three games. In both the Jordan and Riverside contests the Knights effectively derailed any running game for either team and forced both to go to the air. In the Riverside game especially, the Knights had a comfortable lead and many of the 285 yards came late.
Northern's offense has been balanced when it comes to scoring, posting 12 rushing scores to 14 passing scores. They've also added an impressive three defensive scores on the season. Opposing teams have scored 13 times on the ground to nine through the air, while adding an additional four scores through special teams and defensive scores.
All Those Other Items
Unlike many games we've seen so far this year, this game looks to be one where two teams are going in very different directions. The only caveat to that hypothesis is East's recent bye week and the fact that against Riverside, although they lost by 17 they were ahead early be almost two scores. On the other side, Northern appears to be clicking on all cylinders or at least in two very important ones - rushing offense and rush defense. How Northern handles a game that everyone will say they should win and win by a lot will be very telling of where the team is from a pyschological perspective. As we've spoken about before every game means something and how you play each of those games tells a bit more about what the DNA of that team is for a given season. Northern has shown growth and in their three conference wins they've shown different elements of who they are - against Person, they defeated an old rival that always can make things interesting; against Jordan they defeated a team that most folks said was better than them; against Riverside they beat a team that most folks thought was most likely not quite as good as Northern. Against East, they'll face a team that most folks will say is a heavy underdog to the Knights. How they handle that and ultimately how they execute will write another chapter of the 2010 season for the Knights.
East finds itself needing W's to have a shot at the playoffs and unfortunately sitting directly in their path is the top of the conference. Air-Renner has shown promise on offense, whether in piling up yardage or scoring, but unfortunately for the win-loss ratio, they've been heavily biased to the loss side of things due to spotty defensive play. It's hard to see the Wildcats making significant changes over the bye-week that would halt the hemorraghing on that side of the ball, but anything is possible in high school ball! East has fallen behind early in many of their games sporting a 12 to 22 point differential at the half and against the Knights, they'll need to put points up early on a high percentage of their possessions to get them in a place where they have a chance going into the second half to make a play or two to steal a victory.
The Final Analysis
Northern is rolling and East is - coming off a bye - so where do you go in a game that seems so mis-matched on the surface. For me, go to the facts. It's clear that Northern is getting in a groove rushing the ball out of their spread looks and when you look at how East has been unsuccessful in halting opposing rushing attacks it's logical to postulate that Northern will be able to control the clock and do what they like from that perspective. East hasn't faired much better against the pass and although the Knights have produced modest passing numbers so far this year, you would imagine that they will be able to complete passes when they need to - if they even need to based on how they do rushing the ball.
On the other side of the ball, East has faired well offensively in general, although in their conference games their strength of passing the ball has been limited. This would make sense if the only evidence of this fact was against Jordan who has shown to be a strong team from a pass defense perspective, but against Riverside who gives up on average close to 10 YPA, the Wildcats were limited to under 5 YPA. It should be noted that against Riverside, quarterback Drew Davis left the game in the second quarter with an apparent shoulder injury. He returned in the third quarter and after a sack, left the game again. Whether Davis is at 100% or not will be a huge factor in what the Wildcats will be able to accomplish come Friday night.
Assuming Davis plays, look for East to score, but not to the extent they've done throughout the year. Unless, Northern completely overlooks the Wildcats, I see them continuing to run the ball well and find the end zone a number of times on the ground. They'll augment those scores with some strikes through the air and walk away from Durham County Memorial Stadium at 4-0 in conference play and still in first place.
DFBFan's Pick - East Chapel Hill (0-2) at Northern Durham (3-0)
Northern Durham - 42
East Chapel Hill - 14
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