Defense has been the name of the game for both teams during their winning streaks, with both teams ranking near the top of the conference in rush defense, while the Knights lead the conference in defensive scores this year and Southern's defense is allowing under 17 points per game. Not to be outdone, the offenses for both teams have picked up over the past month, with both finding their rushing form.
The playoff picture has been settled for both teams to some extent as they will both be automatic qualifiers, but where they seed in the playoffs comes down in large part to this game. Not to mention that bragging rights for the Bull City are at stake.
The game is drawing close...let's get started.
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Northern Durham (5 - 4 overall, 4 - 0 conference)
Wins - Rocky Mount (3A), Person (4A), Jordan (4A), Riverside (4A), ECH (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 13 - 33 (0.28 WP); PF - 169, PA - 83
Losses - Middle Creek (4A), Greensboro Page (4A), Millbrook (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 28 - 8 (0.78 WP); PF - 65, PA - 115
Strength of Schedule - 72 of 98 4A teams; (-29 since Week 4 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Jordan. The Knights captured a victory against a five win Falcon squad that had previously only fallen to undefeated Panther Creek. The verdict is still out on how good the Falcons really are and thus how good the Knights are for taking them out, but regardless, for a team that won zero games in 2009, this is a big win that puts them in sole possession of first place in the conference after two weeks. The Knight rushing attack was clicking, galloping for 191 yards and a 5.2 YPC average. Defensively, the Knights did well, halting the Falcons for just 87 yards rushing at a paltry 3.1 YPC average.
Previously - Rocky Mount. Even with the victory against Person, the Rocky Mount win is still a better victory when you look at how the Knights played statistically. Rushing production was the only place where Northern did better than how they performed against Rocky Mount.
Best Loss - Wake Forest-Rolesville. The Cougars have dominated local area football for a few years now and there was little reason for folks outside of the Northern camp to expect a close affair between these two, but at home in newly renovated Durham County Stadium, the Knights played a spirited game eventually falling to currently 5-0 WFR, 26 to 29.
Southern Durham - (4 - 6 overall, 4 - 1 conference)
Wins - Person (4A), Jordan (4A), Riverside (4A), ECH (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 10 - 27 (0.27 WP); PF - 162, PA - 47
Losses - JH Rose (4A), Middle Creek (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Douglas Byrd (4A), Millbrook (4A), Hillside (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 42 - 12 (0.78 WP); PF - 82, PA - 120
Strength of Schedule - 47 of 98 4A teams; (-32 from Week 4 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Person. It was clear after seeing the Spartans in person that what we had expected was at least in part true. They had played top-notch competition and simply were unable to get that last first down or negate a late penalty or turnover to get a win. That all changed when they stepped onto the field against a Rocket team that simply didn't have the fire-power or athletic ability to compete. The Spartans exploded on the offensive side of the ball, looking like a completely different team, with 264 yards rushing and over 7 YPC, while adding 160 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Defensively, a fast an athletic group, shined, limiting the Rocket rush attack to under 3 YPC
Honorable Mention - East Chapel Hill. Only because of the sheer offensive numbers the Spartans accumulated - over 600 total yards of offense.
Best Loss - Hillside. We know Southern has played an incredible schedule, now considered by computer-guru Pasteur the #1 toughest schedule in 4A ball and oh by the way, #1 overall for every school in the state of NC, all classifications (prior to Hillside game). On Friday night, they did what they've done all year long, play tough, competitive football against quality teams and then find themselves in the position late to get their first victory of the 2010 season against arguably one of the top 10 4A teams in the state. Statistically, it wasn't a great night for the Spartans as they were only better than their season averages in the rush per attempt category, picking up 5.2 YPC versus a season average of 3.0 YPC. Some could argue taking Judd's 80 yard run out of the mix would show that statistically they really struggled (it was a bit of an outlier) and those folks would have a valid gripe. Still, the Spartans did what they needed as the game progressed based on where the game was in that moment and almost took the victory.
Previously - Byrd. Almost all of Southern's defeats have been competitive, but the contest against Byrd had the Spartans leading 7-6 at halftime and it wasn't until late that Byrd made the plays to take home the victory. The Spartan offense picked up a season high of 224 yards through the air and had their second best rushing total of the year although in both cases they had a high number of attempts. Defensively the Spartans limited Byrd to just over 200 yards of offense. As with most of their losses they appear to be close, but not close enough to pulling out the W.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - Northern and Southern Durham have played a number of common opponents going into their match-up. Within conference, they've both played Person, Jordan, Riverside and East - out-of-conference they've both played Middle Creek, Wake Forest-Rolesville and Millbrook. Both teams are undefeated in conference against common opponents and both are win less against their common opponents outside of conference play.
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Northern Durham (5 - 4 overall, 4 - 0 conference)
Wins - Rocky Mount (3A), Person (4A), Jordan (4A), Riverside (4A), ECH (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 13 - 33 (0.28 WP); PF - 169, PA - 83
Losses - Middle Creek (4A), Greensboro Page (4A), Millbrook (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 28 - 8 (0.78 WP); PF - 65, PA - 115
Strength of Schedule - 72 of 98 4A teams; (-29 since Week 4 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Jordan. The Knights captured a victory against a five win Falcon squad that had previously only fallen to undefeated Panther Creek. The verdict is still out on how good the Falcons really are and thus how good the Knights are for taking them out, but regardless, for a team that won zero games in 2009, this is a big win that puts them in sole possession of first place in the conference after two weeks. The Knight rushing attack was clicking, galloping for 191 yards and a 5.2 YPC average. Defensively, the Knights did well, halting the Falcons for just 87 yards rushing at a paltry 3.1 YPC average.
Previously - Rocky Mount. Even with the victory against Person, the Rocky Mount win is still a better victory when you look at how the Knights played statistically. Rushing production was the only place where Northern did better than how they performed against Rocky Mount.
Best Loss - Wake Forest-Rolesville. The Cougars have dominated local area football for a few years now and there was little reason for folks outside of the Northern camp to expect a close affair between these two, but at home in newly renovated Durham County Stadium, the Knights played a spirited game eventually falling to currently 5-0 WFR, 26 to 29.
Southern Durham - (4 - 6 overall, 4 - 1 conference)
Wins - Person (4A), Jordan (4A), Riverside (4A), ECH (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 10 - 27 (0.27 WP); PF - 162, PA - 47
Losses - JH Rose (4A), Middle Creek (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Douglas Byrd (4A), Millbrook (4A), Hillside (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 42 - 12 (0.78 WP); PF - 82, PA - 120
Strength of Schedule - 47 of 98 4A teams; (-32 from Week 4 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Person. It was clear after seeing the Spartans in person that what we had expected was at least in part true. They had played top-notch competition and simply were unable to get that last first down or negate a late penalty or turnover to get a win. That all changed when they stepped onto the field against a Rocket team that simply didn't have the fire-power or athletic ability to compete. The Spartans exploded on the offensive side of the ball, looking like a completely different team, with 264 yards rushing and over 7 YPC, while adding 160 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Defensively, a fast an athletic group, shined, limiting the Rocket rush attack to under 3 YPC
Honorable Mention - East Chapel Hill. Only because of the sheer offensive numbers the Spartans accumulated - over 600 total yards of offense.
Best Loss - Hillside. We know Southern has played an incredible schedule, now considered by computer-guru Pasteur the #1 toughest schedule in 4A ball and oh by the way, #1 overall for every school in the state of NC, all classifications (prior to Hillside game). On Friday night, they did what they've done all year long, play tough, competitive football against quality teams and then find themselves in the position late to get their first victory of the 2010 season against arguably one of the top 10 4A teams in the state. Statistically, it wasn't a great night for the Spartans as they were only better than their season averages in the rush per attempt category, picking up 5.2 YPC versus a season average of 3.0 YPC. Some could argue taking Judd's 80 yard run out of the mix would show that statistically they really struggled (it was a bit of an outlier) and those folks would have a valid gripe. Still, the Spartans did what they needed as the game progressed based on where the game was in that moment and almost took the victory.
Previously - Byrd. Almost all of Southern's defeats have been competitive, but the contest against Byrd had the Spartans leading 7-6 at halftime and it wasn't until late that Byrd made the plays to take home the victory. The Spartan offense picked up a season high of 224 yards through the air and had their second best rushing total of the year although in both cases they had a high number of attempts. Defensively the Spartans limited Byrd to just over 200 yards of offense. As with most of their losses they appear to be close, but not close enough to pulling out the W.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - Northern and Southern Durham have played a number of common opponents going into their match-up. Within conference, they've both played Person, Jordan, Riverside and East - out-of-conference they've both played Middle Creek, Wake Forest-Rolesville and Millbrook. Both teams are undefeated in conference against common opponents and both are win less against their common opponents outside of conference play.
Against conference foes, Southern has outscored the Knights, while also limiting teams to fewer points per game. Offensively, the Spartans have run and thrown for more yards per game against common PAC-6 opponents and averaged more per rush and pass. Defensively, the Knights have shut-down the opposition's rush attack on average more effectively than the Spartans and both have limited opposing passing attacks to roughly the same number of yards per attempt. Against out-of-conference opponents, the Spartans are scoring roughly three points more per game, while both teams gave up roughly 22 points per game. Both teams rushed for roughly 60 yards per game, but Northern rushed for almost one yard more per carry. In the passing game, the Spartans threw for roughly 67 more yards per game, but only averaged a half a yard more per attempt than the Knights. Defensively, the Knights gave up roughly 50 less yards per game rushing, but yielded almost a half-a-yard more per rush. In the passing game, the Knights gave up 25 less yards through the air, but more than one yard more per attempt than the Spartans.
Within conference, the Spartans have been more dominant in every category except for rush defense, while out of conference, both teams were similar in almost every category. The differences overall are not great and further reinforce how close this game should be on Friday evening.
Statistically Speaking - The Northern offense ranks second in the conference in points scored at 26 per game, while the Spartans are close behind at third with 24.4 per game. In their wins, the Knights are putting up close to 34 a game while the Spartans are tallying almost 41 a game. Defensively, Southern is number two in the PAC-6 allowing just under 17 points per game and in their four wins just under 12 per game. Northern is ranked fourth in the conference allowing 22 per game and in their losses have averaged just under 17 per game.
Northern's offense ranks in the upper third of the conference when looking at their running attack. They are third at just around 145 YPG and average 4.5 YPC placing them third in conference. In their five wins they've doubled their rushing totals, running for on average 187 YPG, versus just 93 YPG in their four losses. They've also been able to manage close to one and half more yards per carry in their wins as compared to their losses. In their victories, they've tallied 160 yards or more rushing in four of their five games and gone over 100 yards in all five victories. The Knights have not had as much success through the air this year, ranking last in total passing yards per game and yards per attempt. They currently average just under 117 YPG through the air and win or lose have been in the five YPA range.
Defensively, the Knights have been solid against the rush, ranking third in both rushing yards per game allowed (125 YPG) and yards per carry (3.9 YPC). Similar to their offensive rushing statistics, in Northern's victories, the Knights have limited teams to roughly 68 YPG at just 2.4 YPC, but in their losses teams have found success on the ground rushing for almost 200 YPG and over 5 YPC. In their five wins they've limited the opposition to 118 yards or less rushing, while in three of their four losses the opposition has run for over 200 yards. The Knights have given up around 134 YPG through the air, placing them near the bottom of the PAC-6, but that number is a bit misleading as they rank fourth in conference, allowing about 6.2 YPA. In both their wins and losses they've allowed over 100 YPG through the air on average and in total in six of their nine games.
The Knights have been balanced in the scoring department, punching it in 15 times on the ground to 16 through the air. That places them second in conference in both categories. Thirteen of their 15 rushing scores have come in their five wins, while they've split their passing scores between wins and losses. A slight indication that when things are going the Knights way, they are running the ball and running it well. The Knights defense has also been opportunistic, tallying four scores this year, ranking first in conference. Defensively, the Knights are third in conference, allowing 13 rushing scores this year at roughly 1.4 per game. Through the air they are allowing one score per game and have also given up two special teams scores and four scores through offensive turnovers and miscues.
It's hard to tell if the Spartan offense is finally clicking after putting up over 600 yards of total offense against the struggling Wildcats last week, but suffice it to say that after a tough opening stretch, the offense is running and the unit is going in a positive direction. The Spartans rank near the top of the conference in both rushing and passing categories. Currently ranked second in conference at close to 156 YPG rushing at roughly 5.7 YPC. In their four victories they've been monsterous in the rush department, rambling for almost 275 YPG on average, compared to a paltry 78 per game in their six losses. The Spartans have also found success going to the air, ranking third in yards per game, attempts and average yards per attempt.
Although Southern's scoring defense has the edge over the Knights, just barely, the Knights have a slight edge in the rush defense department. The Spartans rank third in conference, allowing roughly 152 YPG rushing and 4.2 YPC. The Spartans are allowing roughly half the number of yards rushing in their wins compared to their losses. Against the pass, the Spartans rank fourth and third, in yards per game and yards per attempt, respectively.
The Spartans are similar to the Knights when it comes to reaching the end zone, tallying 14 scores on the ground to 12 through the air, ranking them fourth in conference in both categories. Ten of their 14 rushing scores have come in their wins, while only five of their 12 passing touchdowns have come in those victories. The Spartans have also added a couple of scores through special teams and defensive play. Defensively, Southern ranks fourth in both rushing and passing touchdowns allowed. Currently the Spartans are allowing roughly 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game and under one passing score per game. The Spartans have also allowed a score through an offensive turnover.
All Those Other Items
Although both teams overall strength of schedules have suffered as they've progressed through the conference season, don't take that as a knock against either team - you can't change the mediocrity and sub-par competition they've seen from other teams in conference. Both teams non-conference schedules were brutal and although they came out of those combined 10 games with only one win combined, since that point they've combined for eight wins in nine games, with the only loss coming to Hillside, in Southern's one point loss to begin conference play. The tough competition has certainly hardened and strengthened both teams and whether for this game or playoff runs down the road, you have to believe that both teams have a solid foundation to make some noise.
The defenses have played well down the stretch for both teams and it's tough to give a definitive edge to either team, although the answer to this may lie more in what both can do offensively. If you only have to defend one thing, the job becomes a bit easier. Both teams will look to run the ball as they've done quite well of late and both defenses have done a great job of stopping the opposition, so if a stalemate ensues - what happens through the air may tell much of the story. The Spartans have attempted more passes, accumulated more yards and averaged more yards per attempt than the Knights, but Northern has found a way to make the pass work for them, even though they haven't thrown the ball nearly as much. Where - in the red zone, where the Knights have scored 16 times through the air and have been balanced in both their wins and losses in utilizing this aspect of their system. Yardage is important, but the scoreboard at most high schools, only tells you the points scored and if the Knights can selectively utilize the pass to break the goal-line it will certainly help their running attack in that same region of the field.
The Knights defense has not only limited the yardage that other teams have gained, but also contributed on the scoreboard for four scores this year and how they continue to capitalize on these situations and specifically on potential mistakes by the Southern offense may also play a huge role in the game. On the flip side, Southern is loaded with speed and this is seen in large part on special teams where the Spartans have scored multiple times. How Northern manages the return teams of the Spartans and how Southern uses this phase of the game to their advantage will also be of importance as the game unfolds.
The Final Analysis
It's easy to say that Southern has been in this position before and that experience will be on the Spartans' sideline and to some extent you would be correct. Coach Jones has been here before, but translating what he's been through to those that are either making the plays or not is a different story. Southern has been one of the dominant programs in the PAC-6 for some time now and so to be in this position is no surprise, but it's important to understand that most of the the key components to Southern's current success did not play significant roles in years past, but in most cases were in supporting roles. On the other sideline, going from win less a year ago to find themselves in a game that assures them at least second in conference with a win is definitely a new position for the Knights, although Coach Sullivan, similar to Coach Jones has also experienced success, as an assistant at Millbrook, prior to taking over the reigns of the Knights. How both coaching staffs are able to focus their relatively young teams will be important in a game where a play here or there could determine the outcome.
Northern had the fortune potentially of having a bye week and has had an extra week to prepare for the Spartans, while Southern is riding high off of an offensive yardage fest against the Wildcats. Will extra mental work or momentum be more important - we'll find out?
The loser of tonight's game is assured at worst a third place finish and automatic qualifying berth for the playoffs, while the winner still has the chance to claim the PAC-6 championship. There is no looking ahead as the future is now for both programs. Look for strong defensive play tonight and if one team gains more than a seven point edge with possession, look to see how the opposition responds as it will probably tell a lot about how the remainder of the game plays out. My take is that if the margin ever gets that large, the opposition will respond with a defensive stand and bring the game back in check. I looking for a classic tonight.
DFBFan's Pick - Northern Durham (4-0) at Southern Durham (4-1)
Southern Durham - 21
Northern Durham - 20
Within conference, the Spartans have been more dominant in every category except for rush defense, while out of conference, both teams were similar in almost every category. The differences overall are not great and further reinforce how close this game should be on Friday evening.
Statistically Speaking - The Northern offense ranks second in the conference in points scored at 26 per game, while the Spartans are close behind at third with 24.4 per game. In their wins, the Knights are putting up close to 34 a game while the Spartans are tallying almost 41 a game. Defensively, Southern is number two in the PAC-6 allowing just under 17 points per game and in their four wins just under 12 per game. Northern is ranked fourth in the conference allowing 22 per game and in their losses have averaged just under 17 per game.
Northern's offense ranks in the upper third of the conference when looking at their running attack. They are third at just around 145 YPG and average 4.5 YPC placing them third in conference. In their five wins they've doubled their rushing totals, running for on average 187 YPG, versus just 93 YPG in their four losses. They've also been able to manage close to one and half more yards per carry in their wins as compared to their losses. In their victories, they've tallied 160 yards or more rushing in four of their five games and gone over 100 yards in all five victories. The Knights have not had as much success through the air this year, ranking last in total passing yards per game and yards per attempt. They currently average just under 117 YPG through the air and win or lose have been in the five YPA range.
Defensively, the Knights have been solid against the rush, ranking third in both rushing yards per game allowed (125 YPG) and yards per carry (3.9 YPC). Similar to their offensive rushing statistics, in Northern's victories, the Knights have limited teams to roughly 68 YPG at just 2.4 YPC, but in their losses teams have found success on the ground rushing for almost 200 YPG and over 5 YPC. In their five wins they've limited the opposition to 118 yards or less rushing, while in three of their four losses the opposition has run for over 200 yards. The Knights have given up around 134 YPG through the air, placing them near the bottom of the PAC-6, but that number is a bit misleading as they rank fourth in conference, allowing about 6.2 YPA. In both their wins and losses they've allowed over 100 YPG through the air on average and in total in six of their nine games.
The Knights have been balanced in the scoring department, punching it in 15 times on the ground to 16 through the air. That places them second in conference in both categories. Thirteen of their 15 rushing scores have come in their five wins, while they've split their passing scores between wins and losses. A slight indication that when things are going the Knights way, they are running the ball and running it well. The Knights defense has also been opportunistic, tallying four scores this year, ranking first in conference. Defensively, the Knights are third in conference, allowing 13 rushing scores this year at roughly 1.4 per game. Through the air they are allowing one score per game and have also given up two special teams scores and four scores through offensive turnovers and miscues.
It's hard to tell if the Spartan offense is finally clicking after putting up over 600 yards of total offense against the struggling Wildcats last week, but suffice it to say that after a tough opening stretch, the offense is running and the unit is going in a positive direction. The Spartans rank near the top of the conference in both rushing and passing categories. Currently ranked second in conference at close to 156 YPG rushing at roughly 5.7 YPC. In their four victories they've been monsterous in the rush department, rambling for almost 275 YPG on average, compared to a paltry 78 per game in their six losses. The Spartans have also found success going to the air, ranking third in yards per game, attempts and average yards per attempt.
Although Southern's scoring defense has the edge over the Knights, just barely, the Knights have a slight edge in the rush defense department. The Spartans rank third in conference, allowing roughly 152 YPG rushing and 4.2 YPC. The Spartans are allowing roughly half the number of yards rushing in their wins compared to their losses. Against the pass, the Spartans rank fourth and third, in yards per game and yards per attempt, respectively.
The Spartans are similar to the Knights when it comes to reaching the end zone, tallying 14 scores on the ground to 12 through the air, ranking them fourth in conference in both categories. Ten of their 14 rushing scores have come in their wins, while only five of their 12 passing touchdowns have come in those victories. The Spartans have also added a couple of scores through special teams and defensive play. Defensively, Southern ranks fourth in both rushing and passing touchdowns allowed. Currently the Spartans are allowing roughly 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game and under one passing score per game. The Spartans have also allowed a score through an offensive turnover.
All Those Other Items
Although both teams overall strength of schedules have suffered as they've progressed through the conference season, don't take that as a knock against either team - you can't change the mediocrity and sub-par competition they've seen from other teams in conference. Both teams non-conference schedules were brutal and although they came out of those combined 10 games with only one win combined, since that point they've combined for eight wins in nine games, with the only loss coming to Hillside, in Southern's one point loss to begin conference play. The tough competition has certainly hardened and strengthened both teams and whether for this game or playoff runs down the road, you have to believe that both teams have a solid foundation to make some noise.
The defenses have played well down the stretch for both teams and it's tough to give a definitive edge to either team, although the answer to this may lie more in what both can do offensively. If you only have to defend one thing, the job becomes a bit easier. Both teams will look to run the ball as they've done quite well of late and both defenses have done a great job of stopping the opposition, so if a stalemate ensues - what happens through the air may tell much of the story. The Spartans have attempted more passes, accumulated more yards and averaged more yards per attempt than the Knights, but Northern has found a way to make the pass work for them, even though they haven't thrown the ball nearly as much. Where - in the red zone, where the Knights have scored 16 times through the air and have been balanced in both their wins and losses in utilizing this aspect of their system. Yardage is important, but the scoreboard at most high schools, only tells you the points scored and if the Knights can selectively utilize the pass to break the goal-line it will certainly help their running attack in that same region of the field.
The Knights defense has not only limited the yardage that other teams have gained, but also contributed on the scoreboard for four scores this year and how they continue to capitalize on these situations and specifically on potential mistakes by the Southern offense may also play a huge role in the game. On the flip side, Southern is loaded with speed and this is seen in large part on special teams where the Spartans have scored multiple times. How Northern manages the return teams of the Spartans and how Southern uses this phase of the game to their advantage will also be of importance as the game unfolds.
The Final Analysis
It's easy to say that Southern has been in this position before and that experience will be on the Spartans' sideline and to some extent you would be correct. Coach Jones has been here before, but translating what he's been through to those that are either making the plays or not is a different story. Southern has been one of the dominant programs in the PAC-6 for some time now and so to be in this position is no surprise, but it's important to understand that most of the the key components to Southern's current success did not play significant roles in years past, but in most cases were in supporting roles. On the other sideline, going from win less a year ago to find themselves in a game that assures them at least second in conference with a win is definitely a new position for the Knights, although Coach Sullivan, similar to Coach Jones has also experienced success, as an assistant at Millbrook, prior to taking over the reigns of the Knights. How both coaching staffs are able to focus their relatively young teams will be important in a game where a play here or there could determine the outcome.
Northern had the fortune potentially of having a bye week and has had an extra week to prepare for the Spartans, while Southern is riding high off of an offensive yardage fest against the Wildcats. Will extra mental work or momentum be more important - we'll find out?
The loser of tonight's game is assured at worst a third place finish and automatic qualifying berth for the playoffs, while the winner still has the chance to claim the PAC-6 championship. There is no looking ahead as the future is now for both programs. Look for strong defensive play tonight and if one team gains more than a seven point edge with possession, look to see how the opposition responds as it will probably tell a lot about how the remainder of the game plays out. My take is that if the margin ever gets that large, the opposition will respond with a defensive stand and bring the game back in check. I looking for a classic tonight.
DFBFan's Pick - Northern Durham (4-0) at Southern Durham (4-1)
Southern Durham - 21
Northern Durham - 20
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