Playoff Update - Only 94 Remain

PHOTO BY JOHNNY JOHNSON - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

Conference races are heating up throughout the state and before we know it that first week of the playoffs will be upon us.  I know that personally one thing I'm definitely missing is the exceptional work that Drew Pasteur put forth each fall with regards to his Fantastic 50 predictions that ultimately culminated in the incredible work that projected out all of the brackets.  It was amazing work and in case you happen to be reading Drew - thanks for all that you did to support high school athletics in North Carolina over the years and I hope you and the family are doing well up North!

I won't try to match what Drew did, but I did take a few moments and go through and get a bit of information about all of the classification AAAA teams in the state and at least have an idea of where teams stand as we head into the final three weeks of the regular season.  References, citations, footnotes - whatever your modus operandi is with regards to giving credit - are a good thing, so I wanted to give a shout out to the Asheville Reynolds contingent that have for so many years done an awesome job with their website [www.gobiggreen.net].  Almost all of the information that I used to put together some of the information I'm going to present came from their site.  If you haven't checked out this site and you follow high school ball in the state, then you are definitely missing out.  For those that value a bit of perspective when you are talking around the water cooler (as opposed to the hype machines that base the hype on zero substance) you have to check out the site, you won't be disappointed.

Playoffs Out of Reach?

Well, you knew it was coming sooner or later and with last week we had four additional teams inch closer to the edge and get very close to joining Garinger High School and Southwest Guilford as teams that as best as I can determine will not be able to make the playoffs this year, unless some incredible things happen over the final three weeks.  Southwest Guilford will be ineligible for postseason play because of players being ejected earlier this season.  Garinger was eliminated a week prior as they currently have zero reportable wins with only two games remaining on their schedule.  Sanderson, Smithfield Selma, Ben L. Smith and East Mecklenburg look to be at best half-way out of consideration at this point.  All have zero reportable wins and only three games remaining meaning that winning all of them will not get them to the four win plateau for at-large consideration.  It also does not appear that winning their three remaining games would get them into the top three of their conferences for an automatic bid unless there are numerous upsets that create a log-jam in the three win region.  That said, if any of those four can pull off a three game winning streak to close the season and if crazy things happen ahead of them - who knows, it just might be their lucky day!

Breaking Down Overall Wins

Heading into week nine of the regular season there is one team with eight overall wins, Garner; 14 with seven or more wins; 29 with six or more wins; 40 with five or more wins and 51 with four or more wins. There are 20 additional teams that currently have three wins; taking us to 71 teams with three or more wins overall on the season.  Of interest in the three win teams, Dudley currently is 3-0 in conference and Western Guilford one of their conference foes is 3-1.  South View is the only other team with three overall wins that is on the positive side in conference, with a 2-1 mark.  An additional 12 teams have two overall wins, including East Chapel Hill and Seventy-First with 2-1 marks in conference play.  Twelve additional teams round out those 94 that appear at this moment to still have some chance of making the playoffs as they currently stand with one overall win, with three games to play.  They include Enloe, Apex, Riverside, Jordan and Person from the immediate area.

Who Is In

Porter Ridge and Sun Valley are both in the playoffs.  Actually, we knew this before the season began as they come from the Southern Carolina conference that is split between the AAAA and AAA classifications. PR and SV happen to be the only two 4A schools in the conference and as such are guaranteed slots. Currently Porter Ridge is earning that slot as they are 7-0 overall and 2-0 in conference.  Sun Valley is 3-4 overall and 0-2 in conference, tied for last with Parkwood, also at 0-2.

Who Will be a #1 Seed?

A number of teams are currently without a loss (some if you drop the endowment loss) and still vying for the chance at one of the four top seeds (4A East, West; 4AA East, West).  Garner, Leesville Road, Lumberton, Scotland, Mt.Tabor, Mallard Creek, Porter Ridge and Page are currently out in front for these four slots.  Of course a lot could change over the final three weeks.

Hypothetically Speaking

If the season ended this past Friday and all of the automatic bids were nestled nicely within the top 64 teams based on overall wins (which is of course in many ways not necessarily correct), who would be the last two teams in and who'd be the last two out?  The dividing line would be in the three win overall teams, with Glenn and High Point Central being teams 63 and 64, both with 1-2 (0.333) conference marks.  The first two out, would be West Mecklenburg and Heritage, also with three overall wins and both with 1-3 conference marks (0.250).  Of course, this is simply hypothetically speaking...

Odds and Ends

the Work Week Quarterback (WWQB) - Thoughts and Notes   [Link to Article]
Talking Playoffs and Conference Winning Percentages   [Link to Article]
When Does 4 Wins Not Equal 4 Wins?   [Link to Article]
Multiple Endowments, Oh My!   [Link to Article]

Photographs courtesy of newsobserver.com (The News & Observer)

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