the Work Week Quarterback (WWQB) - Thoughts and Notes

PHOTO BY ROBERT WILLETT - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

the Work Week QB is Here!

The PAC-6 appears to be solidifying their top three berths for the playoffs based on the results from this past Friday.  We knew going into the games that either the race for those three spots would either become incredibly undecided or else the favorites would exert their might and put some quality distance between the top half of the conference and the bottom  half.  The only game that appeared to be completely up in the air was the Northern Durham at East Chapel Hill game [Knights and Wildcats for First Place?], where the Knights showed dominance on the ground, while the Wildcats struggled to hold onto the ball, leading to Northern equaling their conference win total from a year ago and positioning themselves strongly to at worst end up as the third place finisher, unless some crazy upsets occur over the next three weeks, and with it an automatic bid to the 2011 playoffs.

Bull City Alum

The Bull City has been fortunate to see a number of their student-athletes move on to the collegiate level in a number of sports.  The opening picture is of Jordan alum T.J. Thorpe, currently in his first year at North Carolina.  T.J. has been the primary kick-off return specialist for the Tarheels so far this season and the photo by News & Observer photographer Robert Willett is from the game against Virginia earlier this year.

Playoff Odds and Ends

We've hit the blog hard with a lot of playoff talk, so be sure to check out our recent posts to get up to speed on how it may or may not affect your favorite team.  [When Does 4 Wins Not Equal 4 Wins?], [Multiple Endowments, Oh My!], [Talking Playoffs and Conference Winning Percentages], [NCHSAA Handbook Football], and from last year, our description of how the playoff process will work - [T-Minus One Month = Playoff Time] - aside from a few changes over the past year.


Thinking Bull City Pigskin and the Playoffs

Hillside continued its dominance within the Bull City and PAC-6 in general with a convincing 36-7 victory over cross-town rival Jordan.  The Hornets still have three conference games to go with their regular season finale against Northern Durham potentially shaping up to be for the conference crown.  The Hornets sit at 6-1 overall and 3-0 in the conference and would appear to be in a strong position to nab one of the top three slots, unless what most would consider a huge upset here or there were to occur.  Assuming a complete collapse were to occur, the Hornets would finish at 6-4 and 3-3 (0.500) in conference.  With only ten games on the schedule, they'll retain their full record from the reporting perspective and if they had to go in as an at-large would be in a solid position with six reportable wins and the 0.500 conference winning percentage.  These final three games will be about playoff positioning and Bull City Pride.

PHOTO BY MARK DOLEJS - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

Southern Durham also continued to show that a few slips up early in the year against some tough competition was quite possibly simply that - slip ups - and they are showing the athleticism and dominance we expected going into 2011.  The Spartans are 5-3 overall and 3-1 in conference with the same two opponents as Hillside remaining on their schedule (ECH and Northern Durham).  Similar to the Hornets, the Spartans will finish their regular season (one week early as they have a bye the final week) against Northern Durham, a game that assuming a win for Southern this week against ECH will be for top finish positioning in the PAC-6.  At worse, the Spartans could fall to 5-5 overall and 3-3 (0.500) in conference.  If they were bumped from an automatic bid and had to go in as an at-large team, they would be in the playoffs most likely based on last year's draw where teams with five reportable wins and a 0.500 conference winning percentage made the dance.  Still, with one additional win in their final two games, they should be in regardless.

Northern Durham are the Knights and for so long were the team of Durham, but times have changed and it's the team from up north that is working hard to get back onto the map of the PAC-6.  Coach Anthony Sullivan led a resurgence last year and put the Knights in the same position they find themselves currently, with four wins in conference and games against Southern Durham and Hillside remaining.  Last year, although progress had been made under Coach Sullivan they were unable to notch wins against the heavyweights of the Bull City and ended up securing a third place finish and automatic bid to the 2010 playoffs.  This year, at worse they would end up 4-2 in conference and 4-6 overall.  East Chapel Hill is the only team that could try to surpass the Knights for third place in this scenario and they would lose the head-to-head tie-breaker, effectively securing the Knights as a third place finisher even with losses to Hillside and Southern to end the season.  Where it could get interesting, is if East Chapel Hill were to knock off Hillside or Southern and also pick up a win against Person, in that situation it's possible that a three-way tie could exist for the second, third and fourth position.  I won't go into details - too many possibilities at the moment. In short, the ECH game at Southern Durham and the Hillside game against Riverside will give a better picture of how this will all work out.

The Wildcats of ECH still have a chance to make the playoffs, but with the loss to Northern, the task has gotten that much more difficult.  The Wildcats currently sit at 2-1 in conference and 2-6 overall with three games to play.  With the 11 game schedule and endowment game, the Wildcats will drop their endowment result, a loss, so they are effectively 2-5 at the moment.  Wins are paramount and they need at the minimum two more to be considered for the playoffs.  In that situation they would end up 4-6 reportable and 4-2 in conference.  As mentioned earlier, this could sneak them in as the third place finisher, but a lot would need to happen that they can't control.  Although their conference winning percentage would be solid (0.667) they would unfortunately be in the last grouping to be considered in the at-large pile of teams as they would only have four reportable wins [See the following article on this scenario - Talking Playoffs and Conference Winning Percentages].  The best case scenario for the Wildcats - win the last three, all conference games and get to five reportable wins as well as 5-1 in conference.  They would be an automatic qualifier - case closed.

Jordan still has a statistical chance of making the playoffs and after their loss to Hillside on Friday, the chances look increasingly slight that this will occur.  If the Falcons miss out on the playoffs this year it will be the first time in 10 years that Jordan will not be playing into November, as the last time they missed out was in head coach Mike Briggs first year at the helm back in 2001 when the Falcons finished 6-4 overall and 2-3 in conference.  For those interested, those were different times where the playoffs had not expanded past 32 total teams and a pre-determined number of teams from each conference made the playoffs - period.  The best case scenario for the Falcons and their only shot at making the playoffs are to win their remaining three games.  In this scenario they'll get to four reportable wins [See article - Multiple Endowments, Oh My!], but with only two wins in conference will not be able to claw back into the top three for an automatic bid.  That means they'll be sitting in the at-large pot and with only four wins in the bottom sub-group.  What will hurt them even more is that their conference winning percentage will only be 0.333 and following last year's list, no four win at-large teams made the dance.  It's tough at the moment to know exactly how the rest of the state is working out - so for the Falcons, it's play hard and play every game as though with each win, you get closer to officially qualifying.  If they can do that, then they'll simply have to wait and see if their number is called.

Riverside and Person find themselves in somewhat similar positions.  They both have one win on the season, but are currently winless in conference.  Unlike Jordan that has only two conference games remaining though, both the Pirates and Rockets have three conference games and as they play one another it's conceivable that one of the two could win out and get to 3-3 in conference and the four reportable wins necessary to qualify as an at-large.  The only caveat in that regard is Person assuming they were to win out and it deals with their lone non-conference win against South Granville on Friday.  If that game was their endowment (as they played 11 games), then they would be forced to drop that win with the new rule for this year and even with the three wins would be 3-3 in conference but 3-7 reportable record wise (again, assuming that the South Granville game was their endowment - and I don't have any record to say one way or the other.  Simply indicating that this is a potential caveat).  What this means is that they would be in-eligible as an at-large but eligible if they made it into the top three of the conference.  In this scenario, the Rockets would need to outlast ECH, Riverside and Jordan.  If both Hillside and Southern win this week then there will be three teams with at least four conference wins which would mean Person could not contend for a top three finish, even with three final wins.  It is at this point that the designation of the South Granville game will be of the utmost importance as it will determine whether or not the Rockets can be eligible as an at-large.

As for Riverside, with three wins they would get to 4-5 reportable and 3-3 in conference.  They would knock Person out of the conference race and would put pressure on Hillside to have to win one of their final two to at the very least get to four wins in conference and effectively eliminate one additional slot in the top three.  The key for the Pirates is to win out, and see either Hillside or Southern stumble significantly with three or two losses respectively.  Probable, no, possible, perhaps.  With only a nine game schedule this year for the Pirates, they'll keep all those wins, so if they win out they will be officially eligible for post-season play, but have to see how things shake out with the 0.500 conference winning percentage.

Photographs courtesy of newsobserver.com (The News & Observer)