East Chapel Hill appears to be a much different team with Renner steering the ship. He is known for spreading defenses out and throwing the pigskin and he has yet to disappoint in ECH's first five games. Renner comes from northern Virginia where he was the head coach at West Springfield High School, while coaching Bryn; and has coached at other schools in the DC suburbs. He is also known for his background as a punter in the NFL for the Green Bay Packers and played college at Virginia Tech.
Jordan enters the contest on a three game winning streak and an overall 4-1 record. The Falcons are led by all-everything athlete T.J. Thorpe who has received over 10 scholarship offers from the likes of Notre Dame, South Carolina and most of the ACC. Earlier this year he verbally committed to the University of North Carolina. The Wildcats enter the game with a 1-4 mark and a four game losing streak after opening the season with an inspirational win against Northwood.
Two opposite sides of the spectrum, 1-4 ECH visiting 4-1 Jordan, are these two teams really as different as the records imply, suppose we'll never know unless we break it down...with that said, let's get started!
Where they Stand Entering the Game
Charles E. Jordan (4 - 1 overall)
Wins - Orange (3A), Green Hope (4A), Greensboro Grimsley (4A), Enloe (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 1-18; PF - 117, PA -36
Losses - Panther Creek (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 4-1; PF - 14, PA -30
Strength of Schedule - 56 of 98 4A teams (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Orange. The most dominating game they've played was their first game. The Falcons averaged over six and half yards per carry rushing the ball while picking up close to 15 yards per attempt through the air. Four of their scores were on the ground and complimented by two more through the air. Add in two additional defensive scores, a fumble recovery by Thorpe and an interception return by safety Phil Williamson and the 50-6 tsunami is about as complete as you could be, no less in your first showing out the gate.
Best Loss - Panther Creek. The Catamounts are one of the better teams in the RDU area and with their balanced offensive attack and attacking defense have a solid chance of capturing the competitive Tri-9 crown while also being a legitimate play-off contender. The Falcons turned the ball over in key stretches against PC and in general the Catamounts responded. Add to that, Thorpe exiting the game for the entire fourth quarter of play and the outcome could have been different.
East Chapel Hill (1 - 4 overall)
Wins - Northwood (2A); Record of Teams Combined - 2-3; PF - 20, PA -18
Losses - Cardinal Gibbons (3A), Cedar Ridge (2A), Carrboro (2A), Chapel Hill (3A); Record of Teams Combined - 15-4; PF - 119, PA - 162
Strength of Schedule - 92 of 98 teams (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Northwood. Look back over the recent past and there aren't a ton of wins for ECH, so to get one on opening night was huge. Add to that, a new head coach, a new offensive system and there was a lot of reasons why the typically powerful Northwood team should have won the game, but in the end, the Wildcats did what was necessary and came out with a close 20-18 victory despite giving up over 300 yards rushing. The spread attack is there and Renner knows how to implement it with Davis at the controls.
Best Loss - Cedar Ridge. The Wildcat defense has been porous to say the least with regards to stopping opposing teams rush attack, so to only allow just over four yards a carry against the Red Wolves is somewhat of a small victory. Offensively, ECH had their best outing in yards passing topping 350 yards while averaging close to eight yards per attempt. The game was competitive throughout, with Cedar Ridge hold only a six point lead heading into the half.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - ECH and Jordan have not faced any common opponents going into their contest. But, dig a bit deeper and we do have one connection. Orange, Cedar Ridge and Carrboro. Orange, defeated by Jordan 50-6 has played both Cedar Ridge and Carrboro, both teams that ECH has lost to in non-conf play. Orange lost to Carrboro 30-0 while falling to Cedar Ridge last week 34-13.
Statistically Speaking - In ECH's four losses they've averaged 29.75 points a game, while giving up 40.50 points. Jordan in their four victories has averaged 29.25 points a game, while giving up 9 per game.
The Falcons over their four victories have rushed the ball almost twice as many times as they've attempted passes. Over those four games they averaged close to five yards per carry and even if you take out the Green Hope game where their rushing statistics are potentially skewed to close to 10 yards per carry, while also taking out on the low end their abnormal performance against Grimsley where they averaged just under two yards per carry you are still left at a point where the Falcons are putting up close to or just above five yards a carry. Through the air, they've averaged over seven yards per attempt in their victories and still managed close to six yards per attempt in their loss to Panther Creek. In the victories they averaged roughly 165 yards rushing and 144 yards passing, fairly balanced yardage totals while running the ball a significant amount more that passing. In the loss to Panther Creek their balance offensively was lost as they attempted eight more attempts through the air than on the ground. No doubt this was a result in part of a solid defensive performance by the Catamounts against the rushing attack. Although the stat sheet says they rushed for just over three yards per carry against Panther Creek, the reality is that going into the fourth quarter of play they had negative yardage rushing and only saw that average bump up after Panther Creek began substitutions which provided the opportunity for a couple of long runs.
The defense has contributed for the Falcons, most notably on the scoreboard with a fumble returned for a touchdown by Thorpe and three interceptions returned for touchdowns, including two by strong safety Williamson. A look at the rushing numbers shows a bit of a weakness. The Falcons in their wins have given up over four and half yards per carry and close to four yards in their loss to Panther Creek. Even with those averages, teams have not put huge rushing numbers up against the Falcons. Green Hope rushed for 169 yards, while Panther Creek managed just 139 and overall in their four wins they allowed just under 120 yards a game. Through the air they've been a bit more stingy. Allowing just 77 yards a game in their wins and 109 to Panther Creek in the loss. Their pass defense may be best represented through their averages per attempt where they've allowed teams only four yards in their wins and five and half in their loss to Panther Creek.
No surprise that their touchdown production is led by Thorpe with four touchdown receptions and the one fumble recovery. But from there, the rock has been shared. Two other Falcons, J. Williams and Williamson each have three touchdowns while six other Falcons have scored. In their victories they are averaging just under two touchdowns a game rushing and passing, respectively, while defensively they've allowed on average less than one rushing and passing touchdown per game. Of interest, they are averaging one defensive score per game in their victories.
The Wildcats are in many ways the opposite of the Falcons offensively. Where the Falcons wish to run - the Wildcats wish to pass. Win or lose, the Wildcats have attempted more throws than rushes. In their four losses they've averaged 25 rushes per game while throwing the ball just over 40 times a game. Statistically, aside from their victory against Northwood, which seems in many ways a bit of anomaly statistically, they are averaging over 300 yards a game passing and around 100 yard rushing. It is no secret that Coach Renner wants to spread you out and throw and appears that his footprint is becoming more and more ingrained as the season moves forward. The Wildcats only attempted 22 and 25 passes in their first two games, but since have attempted 47, 46 and 43. Those three games have also seen the highest passing outputs at 369, 327 and 272. Still, the Wildcats have a talented freshman in Tate that has carried the ball this season and even with a reduced number of carries has managed over four yards per carry in their losses while running for seven yards a carry in their victory over Northwood.
The Wildcats have shown they can score, but unfortunately they've also shown they can be scored upon, both through the air and on the ground. The Wildcats have struggled to stop opposing offenses from running the ball, with their best effort being against Cedar Ridge where they allowed 229 yards and over four yards per carry. Over their four losses they've allowed teams to rush for over six yards per carry and are giving up close to 325 yards a game. Even in their win against Northwood they allowed the Chargers to rush for 345 yards on six yards per carry. The pass defense hasn't been much better. In part because of teams success rushing the ball they've only seen the ball thrown against them roughly 10 times a game, but those attempts have hurt them as they've given up over 11 yards per attempt in their losses.
Offensively, the Wildcats have been able to score, averaging three touchdowns a game through the air. Moore has hauled in seven touchdown receptions, while Ridley and Klimko have both tallied three a piece. But, even with that consistency it's tough to win games when defensively you give up roughly three to four scores a game on the ground. The Wildcats haven't given up many scores through the air in comparison to the ground, but that is certainly due in part to the make-up of the teams they've faced.
All Those Other Items
Jordan has had issues throughout the season converting PATs with regularity. The Orange victory was dominant, but is somewhat tempered by the fact that their projected returning and starting quarterback transferred prior to the season. Additionally, they lost multiple running backs during the week leading up to the Jordan game.
The Panther Creek loss was fueled in many ways by turnovers and penalties. The Falcons had their chances and turned the ball over, including a fumble in the red zone and an interception that was returned by the Catamounts for a score. The Falcons played the final quarter without play-maker Thorpe which could have certainly helped the cause. Rushing is important for this Falcon team and against the Catamounts they were held to negative yardage until late in the game.
Against Green Hope, Thorpe sat the game out to nurse the injury from the Panther Creek game and the passing attack clearly suffered, managing only 36 yards on 16 attempts. Against a team that had lost 29 straight games, the Falcons, aside from an 80 yard run by N. Williams on the first play from scrimmage, managed only 158 yards of total offense the remainder of the game. Add to that an interception return for a touchdown that bounced out of the receiver's hand and a 21-9 victory could have been much different. All-in-all and underwhelming performance for a team that is sporting a 4-1 mark against a team that hasn't won a game since Obama was voted in as President.
The Grimsley contest saw the Falcons stumble in the rushing game but pick themselves up with close to a 200 yard performance passing the ball and two touchdown receptions for Thorpe in his return to play.
The Eagles of Enloe, with their huddle rushing attack put up close to six and half yards per carry, the worst average the Falcons have given up on the ground, but only had 19 rushing attempts? Time of possession was heavily in the Falcons favor as they tallied 52 rushing attempts to 17 attempts through the air. Although the attempts were largely biased to the rush the final yardage was not, as the Falcons rushed for 184 yards and passed for 187.
East Chapel Hill has found a way to score in all of their games this season, but they've also given up a ton of yardage and scores. Against Northwood the Wildcats gave up over 300 yards on the ground, but scored just enough and benefited from Northwood miscues, including a plethora of penalties to get the victory.
Against Cardinal Gibbons, the Crusaders continued the rushing onslaught to the tune of 356 yards and close to nine yards per carry. One of ECH's scores was helped by a short field due to a Crusader fumble in their own territory and the score was 40-7 late in the third quarter before the Wildcats rattled off 21 unanswered points to close out the game.
The Red Wolves scored a kick-off return for a touchdown and intercepted Davis twice. East scored twice in the final two minutes of the game, helped in part by recovering an onside kick.
The Final Analysis
Offensively, both teams have shown the ability to move the ball. East has been more consistent through the air while the Falcons have relied more heavily on the run. The Falcons have faltered in the kicking game, while they have benefited from an opportunistic defense that has scored four times this year. Both teams have struggled to stop the run this year, but the Wildcats have been downright miserable. This can not be said with regards to their pass defenses, where the Falcons have returned three interceptions for scores and have allowed less that five yards per attempt. The Wildcats have struggled to stop other teams passing attacks and this is most alarming because all of the teams they've faced have been run focused teams.
The Falcons have shown themselves to be fairly balanced in total rushing and passing statistics although they clearly prefer to rush the ball and control clock. They've also shown balance in how they've scored this season. They've been consistent in their rushing and passing averages throughout the season. In general they appear to be getting better as the year progresses. If there is a weakness for the Falcons, it may be their rush defense and hurting themselves, whether it be inconsistency in the kicking game, penalties or turnovers at in-opportune times.
The Wildcats should score, the question is whether they can stop the Falcons from scoring? They've done a good job running the ball out of their pass happy attack averaging close to 100 yards a game and have been dazzling through the air with over 300 per game once they got rolling. But, the defense has been what I would term something close to a speed bump that has been flattened out to just above the road-way. Yup, not much resistance and unless that can change come Friday night, the Wildcats will most likely be playing catch-up as they've done in their past four games.
Keys to victory for the Falcons will be a consistent and steady rushing attack that allows for the passing game to flourish here and there. If the Falcon defense can limit any big pick-ups in the rushing game while continuing to play quality pass defense, limiting the potent Wildcat air attack and getting a pick or two, then the Falcons should dictate the overall play of the game. On the other side, the Wildcats will need to make plays through the air and sprinkle in the running game to help keep drives alive. The more that their ground game flourishes the less productive the Falcons' pass defense may be throughout the later stages of the game. A fast start by the Wildcats could create problems for the Falcons, while the inverse will most likely not be as much of an issue for the Wildcats. If the Wildcat defense isn't improved from what we've seen this year, then it will either be a very long game for East fans or else very exciting - one where Davis and company are blowing it up through the air, more so than we've seen before. I expect to see the Falcons score twice on the ground and twice through the air while picking up a fifth score either on special teams or defense. The Wildcats will counter with three scores through the air and a rushing score from either Tate or Davis.
Aside from Panther Creek, the Falcons have played teams with a combined 1 and 18 mark, not the greatest of competition. The Wildcats on the other hand have played a tougher group with an overall 15 and 4 mark. But, the Falcons have taken on primarily 4A competition whereas Jordan will be the first 4A team East has faced. East's passing attack makes them scary and potentially better than 1-4, but there defense, puts them right back at 1-4. Offensively, Jordan hasn't been phenomenal, but they've gotten the job done with above average numbers, while their defense, especially against the pass has made plays. You can only play who they put in front of you and good competition or not, they are 4-1.
DFBFan's Pick - East Chapel Hill at Jordan
Jordan -33
East Chapel Hill -28
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