Knights and Wildcats for First Place?

PHOTO BY MARK DOLEJS - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

Conference races are heating up all over the triangle and tonight should be one of those nights where the races either get just a bit closer or a few schools begin to put some real estate between them and the conference champ imposters.  In the PAC-6, conference championship positioning aside, a number of schools will be looking to simply get a win in an attempt to reach a 'qualifying berth/status' for the playoffs.  We are now reaching that tipping point where a loss this week may mean no playoffs in 2011 for a few teams.

Recent articles on playoffs:  Multiple Endowments, Oh My! and When Does 4 Wins Not Equal 4 Wins?

PAC-6 Match-up, Friday, 10/7/2011

Northern Durham (3-3 overall, 3-0 conference) at East Chapel Hill (2-5 overall, 2-0 conference)

Big question going into 2011 would be how many out there thought that with four weeks remaining in the season, you'd find these two programs with a combined 5-0 conference mark?  I'm sure the answer is a small group, but both teams have legitimate reasons for being where they are at currently.  Northern Durham has one of the best coaches in the state (history proves this out) running the Knights' Castle and when you add a defense that is looking to be more and more Northern-esque (think back to the 90's) then you have a team that in a somewhat down year in the PAC-6 can make noise.  On the opposing sideline the Wildcats have been explosive offensively, something that we knew was bound to eventually get rolling with Davis returning at quarterback as well as a number of skill athletes dotting the field.  Add spread guru Coach Renner to the mix and anytime you can put up the points they have, there is a solid chance of getting the win.

A win is important for both teams as they work to grab one of the automatic berths associated with a first through third place finish, but just as important is picking up as many wins as possible to be competitive when it comes to at-large bids.  At the moment, Northern has the advantage.  With ECH, Hillside and Southern on the schedule, you would think that a win against ECH puts them in a solid position to grab the third place finish assuming the remainder of the season doesn't play out with any major upsets in conference.  And that finish could be better as they technically control their own finish with all of the conference contenders ahead.  They also play Apex, a non-conference game that will be important on a number of levels.  The Knights' only have a 10 game schedule, which means they will retain all W's and L's from a reportable viewpoint.  Sitting at 3-3 currently they need at least one more win to get to the four wins required to be considered if they don't finish in the top three of the conference.  Looking over the current state of the state, it looks as though getting to five wins may be necessary to be considered as it was a year ago.  Assuming they can't reach five wins and perhaps only pick up a win against Apex, they'll still have a strong conference winning percentage at 0.500 if it comes down to that element of the equation.

East Chapel Hill is definitely in the must-win situation this evening and the reality is that they have a team that can win this game!  With only two wins on the season and games remaining against all conference foes, it is imperative that they pick up the win tonight as they have Southern, Hillside and Person to close out the season. A win tonight puts them in a strong position to angle for the third place finish at worst and similar to Northern a first or second place finish as they control they own destiny.  The only way to get to four wins for the Wildcats is for them to get four wins in conference and if that occurs unless some crazy upsets occur, it's hard to imagine them not getting the third place automatic qualifier bid and ending up in an at-large position.  Important point is that tonight's game is big for the Wildcats, not only for the 2011 squad, but for a program in general that has struggled to get to the post-season for some time.

Photographs courtesy of newsobserver.com (The News & Observer)