With the Hornets relaxing a bit this week with their bye, the other two first week winners come together to battle it out for conference supremacy at least for a week. The Falcons took care of business against Air-Renner and company, piling up the rushing yardage and moving the ball through the air for good measure. The Wildcats presented little resistance, as might have been expected with their sub-par defensive numbers, but provided a bit of a let-down on the offensive side of the ball where the passing attack never got in gear against one of the better pass defenses in the conference. The Knights battled the folks from up north and showed that with time, they are steadily showing progress as they attempt to rebuild to the standard set by the Browning and Merrill regimes of past.
Durham County Memorial Stadium has been under renovation for some time now and this will be the first time that the Falcons will play a varsity game in the newly finished complex. It will also be the first conference game that Northern plays at home in their new digs. Should be a lot of energy coming from both sidelines as well as in the stands as everyone soaks in the energy of the new environs!
Although the Falcons come into the game with a 5-1 mark, only loss coming to an undefeated Panther Creek squad, the verdict seems to still be out as to whether or not this team is as good as the record indicates. To clarify in my book, good would mean you win all the games you should win and against comparable competition you split or win more than you lose, while against clearly superior squads to steal a few here and there. So far, they've played a Panther Creek team that was better than them and I would place in the superior squad category. Otherwise, they've played sub-par competition and other than a solid performance against Orange County and East Chapel Hill have played the remainder of their opponents well enough to win, but not to dominate as you would expect.
Northern has played a tougher group and the record shows with a 2-4 mark. They played both Greensboro Page and Wake Forest-Rolesville close before eventually falling, while being taken out early against both Millbrook and Middle Creek. Compared to the previous two seasons, the Knights have shown that the new system in place is beginning to work and folks are buying in to Knight football that has multiple wide-outs and a shot-gun QB as opposed to the power I.
We are fortunate that this week we have three great games on the slate and their isn't a doubt in my mind that this game might just be the most competitive of the group...with that said, let's get started!
Where they Stand Entering the Game
Charles E. Jordan (5 - 1 overall, 1 - 0 conference)
Wins - Orange (3A), Green Hope (4A), Greensboro Grimsley (4A), Enloe (4A), ECH (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 4 - 25; PF - 153, PA - 43
Losses - Panther Creek (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 5 - 0; PF - 14, PA -30
Strength of Schedule - 90 of 98 4A teams (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - East Chapel Hill. This victory is close to that of the Orange victory in dominance, but a few items push this to the Best Win category. First, the Falcons dismantled the East rush defense to the tune of 8.3 YPC and 323 yards. Impressive, whether or not the competition is good or not against the run. This is something you expect from a good or dominant team, if the opposition can't stop the run, you run it and you run it at a blistering pace and 8.3 YPC is blistering. Also impressive was how the Falcon pass defense stepped up and short-circuited Air-Renner. Prior to the contest the Wildcats were averaging over 300 yards a game through the air and were limited to just 174 yards. Yards are important, but even more impressive, the Falcons' allowing just 3.7 YPA through the air. The Falcon pass defense continues to impress.
Previously - Orange. The most dominating game they've played was their first game. The Falcons averaged over six and half yards per carry rushing the ball while picking up close to 15 yards per attempt through the air. Four of their scores were on the ground and complimented by two more through the air. Add in two additional defensive scores, a fumble recovery by Thorpe and an interception return by safety Phil Williamson and the 50-6 tsunami is about as complete as you could be, no less in your first showing out the gate.
Best Loss - Panther Creek. The Catamounts are one of the better teams in the RDU area and with their balanced offensive attack and attacking defense have a solid chance of capturing the competitive Tri-9 crown while also being a legitimate play-off contender. The Falcons turned the ball over in key stretches against PC and in general the Catamounts responded. Add to that, Thorpe exiting the game for the entire fourth quarter of play and the outcome could have been different.
Northern Durham (2 - 4 overall, 1 - 0 conference)
Wins - Rocky Mount (3A), Person (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 3 - 7; PF - 66, PA - 27
Losses - Middle Creek (4A), Greensboro Page (4A), Millbrook (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 20 - 3; PF - 65, PA - 115
Strength of Schedule - 17 of 98 4A teams; (-1 since Week 1 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Rocky Mount. Even with the victory against Person, the Rocky Mount win is still a better victory when you look at how the Knights played statistically. Rushing production was the only place where Northern did better than how they performed against Rocky Mount.
Best Loss - Wake Forest-Rolesville. The Cougars have dominated local area football for a few years now and there was little reason for folks outside of the Northern camp to expect a close affair between these two, but at home in newly renovated Durham County Stadium, the Knights played a spirited game eventually falling to currently 5-0 WFR, 26 to 29.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - Northern and Jordan have not faced any common opponents going into their contest. But there are few outside connections. Jordan played Green Hope and Northern played Middle Creek. Middle Creek dismantled the Eagles, while winning in convincing fashion against the Knights (albeit the first game for both and the Knights had turnover troubles throughout). Jordan struggled without Thorpe in the line-up and pulled a 21 to 9 victory after trailing at halftime 7 to 9.
Statistically Speaking - Over a tough schedule, the Knights have put up close to 22 points a game, while yielding close to 24 per game. The Falcons with one of the weakest schedules in 4A ball has put up approximately 28 per game to just over 12 a game. In Northern's two victories, they've averaged 33 a game and the defense has stiffened for roughly 14 a game. In Jordan's five victories, they've managed roughly 31 a game and the defense has played outstanding giving up only 9 per game.
The Falcon offense played lights out against the Wildcats last week improving both their rush and passing averages with solid performances. Jordan has rushed for 184 yards or more in all but two of their games, their loss to Panther Creek and their narrow victory over Grimsley 18 to 13. They've rushed for over 1000 yards so far with their running back by committee approach and are averaging close to 175 yards a game and a solid 5.5 YPC. In the passing game they are knocking on the 1000 yard barrier with roughly 150 yards per game with roughly 21 attempts.
Defensively, the Falcons continue to improve and that isn't a good sign for the remainder of the PAC-6 as their pass defense has been especially good so far this year. The Falcons shut down the Wildcat passing attack and improved their yards passing per attempt to 3.9 over their five victories (4.1 YPA for season). Against the run, the Falcons haven't been as dominate and are giving up 4.5 YPC. The Falcons have given up over 100 yards rushing in four of their six games and over 100 yards passing in three of their six games.
The Falcons continue to be balanced in how they put the ball into the end zone with 25 overall scores, including 10 via the rush and 11 by air. They've added four defensive scores, including two interception returns for touchdowns by strong safety Phil Williamson. The defense has been stingy giving up a total of eight scores and three of them came against Panther Creek. They are allowing a total of one score combined against teams they defeated.
The Knights have not had as much success offensively as the Falcons have experienced to-date, but it's been enough to net them two wins and a few close games against top competition. The Knights are averaging 110 yards on the ground and 129 through the air (4.0 YPC and 5.8 YPA). Northern has rushed for over 100 yards in four of their six games, but have yet to rush for 200 or more yards in a game, compared to Jordan that has rushed for 200 or more yards in three of their six contests. Through the air, the Knights have notched 100 or more yards in four of the six games with a high of 188 yards against Rocky Mount. The Falcons have passed for 150 yards or more in five of six contests so far.
Defensively the Knights have put up similar numbers to the Falcons against the rush yielding just about 4.6 YPC while seeing over 60 more attempts on the ground compared to the Falcons. Through the air, the Knights have given up 5.8 YPA and 619 yards on the year. They've held only one of their opponents to less than 100 yards rushing on the year, Middle Creek (95 yards) and have given up 100 yards or more passing in three of their six games.
The Knights have put the ball in the end zone 21 times this year, including two defensive touchdowns. They've scored 11 times through the air and complemented that with seven rushing scores. Fairly balanced, these number changes drastically when you look at the four games they've lost, where they only mustered two rushing scores and eight through the air. Defensively they've been more porous than their competition on Friday as they've given up 16 scores (11 rushing and 5 passing). They've been hit especially hard in other areas, giving up three defensive scores and one special teams score.
The Falcon offense played lights out against the Wildcats last week improving both their rush and passing averages with solid performances. Jordan has rushed for 184 yards or more in all but two of their games, their loss to Panther Creek and their narrow victory over Grimsley 18 to 13. They've rushed for over 1000 yards so far with their running back by committee approach and are averaging close to 175 yards a game and a solid 5.5 YPC. In the passing game they are knocking on the 1000 yard barrier with roughly 150 yards per game with roughly 21 attempts.
Defensively, the Falcons continue to improve and that isn't a good sign for the remainder of the PAC-6 as their pass defense has been especially good so far this year. The Falcons shut down the Wildcat passing attack and improved their yards passing per attempt to 3.9 over their five victories (4.1 YPA for season). Against the run, the Falcons haven't been as dominate and are giving up 4.5 YPC. The Falcons have given up over 100 yards rushing in four of their six games and over 100 yards passing in three of their six games.
The Falcons continue to be balanced in how they put the ball into the end zone with 25 overall scores, including 10 via the rush and 11 by air. They've added four defensive scores, including two interception returns for touchdowns by strong safety Phil Williamson. The defense has been stingy giving up a total of eight scores and three of them came against Panther Creek. They are allowing a total of one score combined against teams they defeated.
The Knights have not had as much success offensively as the Falcons have experienced to-date, but it's been enough to net them two wins and a few close games against top competition. The Knights are averaging 110 yards on the ground and 129 through the air (4.0 YPC and 5.8 YPA). Northern has rushed for over 100 yards in four of their six games, but have yet to rush for 200 or more yards in a game, compared to Jordan that has rushed for 200 or more yards in three of their six contests. Through the air, the Knights have notched 100 or more yards in four of the six games with a high of 188 yards against Rocky Mount. The Falcons have passed for 150 yards or more in five of six contests so far.
Defensively the Knights have put up similar numbers to the Falcons against the rush yielding just about 4.6 YPC while seeing over 60 more attempts on the ground compared to the Falcons. Through the air, the Knights have given up 5.8 YPA and 619 yards on the year. They've held only one of their opponents to less than 100 yards rushing on the year, Middle Creek (95 yards) and have given up 100 yards or more passing in three of their six games.
The Knights have put the ball in the end zone 21 times this year, including two defensive touchdowns. They've scored 11 times through the air and complemented that with seven rushing scores. Fairly balanced, these number changes drastically when you look at the four games they've lost, where they only mustered two rushing scores and eight through the air. Defensively they've been more porous than their competition on Friday as they've given up 16 scores (11 rushing and 5 passing). They've been hit especially hard in other areas, giving up three defensive scores and one special teams score.
All Those Other Items
The Falcons are showing they are a balanced offensive unit yardage wise that is predicated on a steady and majority driven rush attack. Running the ball sets up the pass and having folks like T.J. Thorpe on your side helps make those numbers jump out a bit more. Defensively they've crippled teams that wanted to throw or needed to throw to get back in games and that has helped to strengthen a good but not great rush defense.
Northern has run the ball well in their victories, but most importantly has played some of their best defense in their two victories giving up just 3.0 YPC and 3.88 YPA.
Schedules matter to a certain extent and there is no doubt that Northern has played the tougher one to-date. You have to ask yourself if the schedules were flipped would the records also be flipped?
Northern has run the ball well in their victories, but most importantly has played some of their best defense in their two victories giving up just 3.0 YPC and 3.88 YPA.
Schedules matter to a certain extent and there is no doubt that Northern has played the tougher one to-date. You have to ask yourself if the schedules were flipped would the records also be flipped?
The Final Analysis
Everything is pointing to a close and competitive game on Friday evening at Durham County Memorial Stadium. For Jordan, this is the opportunity to play the second best team they've seen so far and win a game that 5-1 teams are expected to win. For Northern, this is the opportunity to tell the rest of the conference that things are changing off of Milton Road and that change is directed towards the reputation of a winner.
Clearly the best player on the field will be T.J. Thorpe and his impact can't be underestimated. Last year against Northern he dominated catching both short and long balls and taking them to the house. The recipe for Jordan is simple - run the ball, dictate clock and sporadically pepper you with throws to guys like Thorpe that can turn a one yard pass into an 80 yard run after catch. Defensively, the Falcons will have a solid night if they shut down the Knight rush attack and force them to throw, something that the Falcons of 2010 look forward to as opposed to pass teams.
Success for Northern will come from continued improvement in their rushing attack out of their spread look and quality defensive play that has them ahead at the half or close to even. They'll also have to minimize offensive miscues that could result in easy scores for the Jordan defense. Something the Falcons have done well, while the Knight offense has obliged. Similarly the Knights will have to contain Thorpe in the special teams game. My advice - sky kick combined with guys filling their lanes (don't believe in the whole kick out of bounds and they'll take it, word to the wise, they won't, they'll continue to have you kick it until you are in trouble! - that's what I would do with a guy like Thorpe back there.)
This is a tough one to call - point blank. Thorpe is a huge factor, but I don't think he negates the fact that Jordan has played a weak schedule so far compared to Northern when it comes to outcome. Jordan has put up 28 or less against their better competition and against Panther Creek, their best opponent they had 14, with 7 coming late in the game against back-ups. If Thorpe wasn't in the game I'd go lower on how much I see Jordan putting up, but with him on the field I see the Falcons getting three trips to the end zone and I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two on offense and a third through special teams or defense. Northern, will be facing a tough defense, but against tough competition they've averaged close to 17 points a game. I'll go out on a limb and say that they pick up one more score. This game could go either way, but for this Friday, Jordan will notch another win and move on, while Northern has a respectable showing that still has them in position to contend for one of the upper slots in the conference.
Clearly the best player on the field will be T.J. Thorpe and his impact can't be underestimated. Last year against Northern he dominated catching both short and long balls and taking them to the house. The recipe for Jordan is simple - run the ball, dictate clock and sporadically pepper you with throws to guys like Thorpe that can turn a one yard pass into an 80 yard run after catch. Defensively, the Falcons will have a solid night if they shut down the Knight rush attack and force them to throw, something that the Falcons of 2010 look forward to as opposed to pass teams.
Success for Northern will come from continued improvement in their rushing attack out of their spread look and quality defensive play that has them ahead at the half or close to even. They'll also have to minimize offensive miscues that could result in easy scores for the Jordan defense. Something the Falcons have done well, while the Knight offense has obliged. Similarly the Knights will have to contain Thorpe in the special teams game. My advice - sky kick combined with guys filling their lanes (don't believe in the whole kick out of bounds and they'll take it, word to the wise, they won't, they'll continue to have you kick it until you are in trouble! - that's what I would do with a guy like Thorpe back there.)
This is a tough one to call - point blank. Thorpe is a huge factor, but I don't think he negates the fact that Jordan has played a weak schedule so far compared to Northern when it comes to outcome. Jordan has put up 28 or less against their better competition and against Panther Creek, their best opponent they had 14, with 7 coming late in the game against back-ups. If Thorpe wasn't in the game I'd go lower on how much I see Jordan putting up, but with him on the field I see the Falcons getting three trips to the end zone and I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two on offense and a third through special teams or defense. Northern, will be facing a tough defense, but against tough competition they've averaged close to 17 points a game. I'll go out on a limb and say that they pick up one more score. This game could go either way, but for this Friday, Jordan will notch another win and move on, while Northern has a respectable showing that still has them in position to contend for one of the upper slots in the conference.
DFBFan's Pick - Jordan (1 - 0) at Northern Durham (1 - 0)
Jordan - 24
Northern Durham - 21
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