There were two things I brought up over the past week or two about the PAC-6 conference that are pertinent to tonight's contest. First, Southern was going to be 0-6 going into this game and the real litmus test for what if anything that killer schedule meant was going to start to show itself in the W and L column beginning with this week's game. Second, that the East/Jordan and Person/Northern games were probably going to tell us more about the conference than Hornet and Spartan affair. From what I can tell, I'm spot on at the moment.
Southern played Hillside tough and as a result had the potential at the end of the game to steal a win, but don't let that fool you that Hillside isn't as good as we thought and Southern is a lot better than most folks thought an 0-6 team should be. Hillside hurt itself continually with penalties and had three huge turnovers, including an opening drive interception in the redzone to Mr. Spartan - Ragland - and a fumble by GT recruit Lee late in the game when the Hornets were attempting to seal the deal. Add to that a fourth and goal where a pass from Lee fell incomplete and the result was a lot of missed opportunities. Defensively, the Hornets allowed an 80 yard run to speedster Judd and otherwise shut-down the Spartan offense in both phases of the game - Period. You have to be asking, where are we going with this - That the Spartans once again played a very good team and found a way to stay close/respectable in the game, but in the end still didn't get a W. Honestly, it was expected. But, not this week, for the first time this year, the Spartans will take on a team that I think everyone legitimately feels is inferior to the Spartan squad. If the Spartans want to make the playoffs, the W's must begin to accumulate tonight!
On the other side, the Person and Northern game showed us about that other segment of the PAC-6. Yes, the other segment, the segment that isn't Hillside. The segment that will be fighting for second through caboose status. I've said, Northern is rebounding under Coach Sullivan and if you are rebounding, then based on what we've seen from Person so far this year, you win that game and that is exactly what the Knights did, while the Rockets haven't shown much to-date as they work with a new head coach. If one game along with what we had been seeing in the non-conference can tell us anything, it's that Person will most likely struggle while the Knights might be able to steal a few more in conference.
It's getting close to game time...with that said, let's get started!
Southern played Hillside tough and as a result had the potential at the end of the game to steal a win, but don't let that fool you that Hillside isn't as good as we thought and Southern is a lot better than most folks thought an 0-6 team should be. Hillside hurt itself continually with penalties and had three huge turnovers, including an opening drive interception in the redzone to Mr. Spartan - Ragland - and a fumble by GT recruit Lee late in the game when the Hornets were attempting to seal the deal. Add to that a fourth and goal where a pass from Lee fell incomplete and the result was a lot of missed opportunities. Defensively, the Hornets allowed an 80 yard run to speedster Judd and otherwise shut-down the Spartan offense in both phases of the game - Period. You have to be asking, where are we going with this - That the Spartans once again played a very good team and found a way to stay close/respectable in the game, but in the end still didn't get a W. Honestly, it was expected. But, not this week, for the first time this year, the Spartans will take on a team that I think everyone legitimately feels is inferior to the Spartan squad. If the Spartans want to make the playoffs, the W's must begin to accumulate tonight!
On the other side, the Person and Northern game showed us about that other segment of the PAC-6. Yes, the other segment, the segment that isn't Hillside. The segment that will be fighting for second through caboose status. I've said, Northern is rebounding under Coach Sullivan and if you are rebounding, then based on what we've seen from Person so far this year, you win that game and that is exactly what the Knights did, while the Rockets haven't shown much to-date as they work with a new head coach. If one game along with what we had been seeing in the non-conference can tell us anything, it's that Person will most likely struggle while the Knights might be able to steal a few more in conference.
It's getting close to game time...with that said, let's get started!
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Person (Roxboro) (1 - 4 overall, 0 - 1 conference)
Wins - Oxford Webb (3A); Record of Teams Combined - 3-2; PF - 21, PA - 0
Losses - George Washington Danville (Virginia Division 5), Halifax (Virginia Division 5), Ragsdale (4A), Northern Durham (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 14 - 13; PF - 41, PA - 134
Strength of Schedule - 49 of 98 teams; (+5 from Week 1 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Oxford Webb. I don't know if you can necessarily call this a best win, but since only one exists, I'll be kind. What you can take from this is that Person under the new leadership of Coach Geary, (Cedar Ridge's head coach for many years prior), can win and have experienced winning under the new captain. But from that point forward things have been tough going.
Best Loss - Halifax County, VA. First, the Rockets fell short by less than a touchdown. Second, the Rockets started somewhat strong in this game leading at halftime, 9-7, before giving up a 3rd quarter score. But, Halifax has gone on to a 1-3 record with their closest loss being 20 points to North Stafford (VA).
Southern Durham - (0 - 6 overall, 0 - 1 conference)
Wins - None
Losses - JH Rose (4A), Middle Creek (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Douglas Byrd (4A), Millbrook (4A), Hillside (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 29 - 5; PF - 82, PA - 120
Strength of Schedule - 1 of 98 4A teams; (+4 from Week 1 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Whenever their first one occurs.
Best Loss - Hillside. We know Southern has played an incredible schedule, now considered by computer-guru Pasteur the #1 toughest schedule in 4A ball and oh by the way, #1 overall for every school in the state of NC, all classifications. On Friday night, they did what they've done all year long, play tough, competitive football against quality teams and then find themselves in the position late to get their first victory of the 2010 season against arguably one of the top 10 4A teams in the state. Statistically, it wasn't a great night for the Spartans as they were only better than their season averages in the rush per attempt category, picking up 5.2 YPC versus a season average of 3.0 YPC. Some could argue taking Judd's 80 yard run out of the mix would show that statistically they really struggled (it was a bit of an outlier) and those folks would have a valid gripe. Still, the Spartans did what they needed as the game progressed based on where the game was in that moment and almost took the victory.
Previously - Byrd. Almost all of Southern's defeats have been competitive, but the contest against Byrd had the Spartans leading 7-6 at halftime and it wasn't until late that Byrd made the plays to take home the victory. The Spartan offense picked up a season high of 224 yards through the air and had their second best rushing total of the year although in both cases they had a high number of attempts. Defensively the Spartans limited Byrd to just over 200 yards of offense. As with most of their losses they appear to be close, but not close enough to pulling out the W.
Previously - Byrd. Almost all of Southern's defeats have been competitive, but the contest against Byrd had the Spartans leading 7-6 at halftime and it wasn't until late that Byrd made the plays to take home the victory. The Spartan offense picked up a season high of 224 yards through the air and had their second best rushing total of the year although in both cases they had a high number of attempts. Defensively the Spartans limited Byrd to just over 200 yards of offense. As with most of their losses they appear to be close, but not close enough to pulling out the W.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - Neither Person or Southern have a common opponent. The only connections are that GW Danville (Person opponent) played Hillside (Southern opponent). Hillside defeated Danville 49-18, while Danville took it to Person, 41-12. Additionally, Person played Northern Durham, while Southern has played Millbrook, WFR and Middle Creek, all teams that Northern played. Northern lost all three contests and Southern also lost all three. In general, Southern played all of those teams more competitively than Northern and Northern walked away with the victory against Person.
Statistically Speaking - Neither team has been dominant in any part of the game to this point, other than Southern's schedule. Person is scoring just over 12 points a game to Southern's almost 14 per game. Defensively, the Rockets are giving up 27 to Southern's 20. Take the Webb win out of the mix and Person is giving up almost 34 a game.
Offensively, it's tough to say that Southern can call either the running or passing game something to be proud of at this point in time. They've fared better in the passing game with 6.2 YPA to the 3.0 YPC in the rushing game, but other than against WFR and Rose where they averaged close to 8 YPA and greater through the air, they really haven't had any stellar performances to-date.
The Spartan defense showed against Hillside that they can be stretched up and down the field, but against some of the best can make plays when necessary to keep games close, statistics aside. Against the run and pass they are about middle of pack in the conference. Turnovers are the great equalizer and against Hillside they were huge, with the two interceptions and fumble late in the game that helped put the Spartans back in the game in the fourth quarter.
The Spartans below-average offensive output has translated to the scoreboard where they've only managed 11 touchdowns this year (4 on the ground & 7 through the air). Most of the damage has come on the ground where opponents have reached the endzone 12 times versus 5 additional scores through the air.
You look through the statistics and it would be easy to confuse the Rocket offense with the Spartan offense. Both teams have struggled, with the Rockets picking up 3.3 YPC and 6.5 YPA. The Rockets have run the ball a bit more than they've thrown and this has been consistent in both their losses and win against Webb.
Defensively, the similarities continue between these two teams as Person is about middle of the conference statistically. Compared to the Spartans defense, the Rockets give a bit more up per run, while allowing just a small amount less through the air.
The Rockets have struggled to find the endzone as well, managing just nine total touchdowns and only eight by the offensive unit (4 rushing & 4 passing). They've given up 18 touchdowns and similar to the Spartans have seen the majority come on the ground (13 rushing).
All Those Other Items
So much of what we know about these teams speaks to them being similar on both sides of the ball. How effective they are rushing, how well they stop the pass, how opposing teams score against them, how little they both score. But the one big difference is who they have played. There is no denying the fact that Southern has played much tougher competition to-date and at worst was able to muster statistically the same results that Person did against weaker competition. You would think that this should mean something.
Both teams have been on average outscored going into halftime, although Person held two leads and came away with a close loss to Halifax and an eventual victory over Webb. Southern has had two leads at the half, to-date, against Middle Creek, whom they eventually lost to 9 to 14 and Byrd who they fell to in the fourth quarter.
Both teams have been on average outscored going into halftime, although Person held two leads and came away with a close loss to Halifax and an eventual victory over Webb. Southern has had two leads at the half, to-date, against Middle Creek, whom they eventually lost to 9 to 14 and Byrd who they fell to in the fourth quarter.
The Final Analysis
Looking forward to how this game plays out for so many reasons as it is yet another game that continues to unwrap the mystery of the PAC-6. Is Southern better than that 0-6 mark? Is the Southern offense better than what we've seen to-date against tough competition; tonight they'll see average competition, which is what they haven't seen all year? Are the athletes and overall team speed that is outstanding for Southern going to finally shine? On the other side, is the new regime at the Rock connecting more and will we see those results translate into wins on the field? Or, was the loss against Northern a telling tale, that this is a team that is rebuilding and we'll need to wait a year or two to see them push for a top conference finish?
There are a lot of reasons to think that Southern comes in to tonight's game and overwhelms the Rockets with their speed and athleticism and the lessons learned from playing the tough competition they've seen. Similarly, there is a lot of reasons to think that the Rockets make a long-long trip down Roxboro Road to Durham, believing they have a chance against an 0-6 team but learn very quickly that this team is better than any team they've faced this year, no wins or not.
Look for the Spartans to put up four to five scores tonight coming from all phases of the game. I can't say enough how impressive their team speed is and the Rockets will experience that all night long. On the flip side, I don't see Person reaching the endzone more than two times tonight and I think it more likely they only hit pay dirt once.
DFBFan's Pick - Person (0 - 1) vs. Southern Durham (0 - 1)
Southern Durham - 30
Person - 10
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