Northern appears to be surging as the effects of the new regime under Coach Sullivan appear to be finally coming together in a cohesive squad. On the other sideline, tonight will tell a lot about a Riverside program that has simply been average or below the past few years. The Knights are attempting to make a mark on the conference and for Riverside this is a chance to say 'Wait one second!' Both teams still have the opportunity to go to the playoffs, but for Riverside, a win tonight seems to be a must if they hope to have a shot at playing in November.
So much to play for - most importantly, have fun! And for me...let's get this started!
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Northern Durham (3 - 4 overall, 2 - 0 conference)
Wins - Rocky Mount (3A), Person (4A), Jordan (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 8 - 11; PF - 87, PA - 41
Losses - Middle Creek (4A), Greensboro Page (4A), Millbrook (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 21 - 4; PF - 65, PA - 115
Strength of Schedule - 23 of 98 4A teams; (-5 since Week 2 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Jordan. The Knights captured a victory against a five win Falcon squad that had previously only fallen to undefeated Panther Creek. The verdict is still out on how good the Falcons really are and thus how good the Knights are for taking them out, but regardless, for a team that won zero games in 2009, this is a big win that puts them in sole possession of first place in the conference after two weeks. The Knight rushing attack was clicking, galloping for 191 yards and a 5.2 YPC average. Defensively, the Knights did well, halting the Falcons for just 87 yards rushing at a paltry 3.1 YPC average.
Previously - Rocky Mount. Even with the victory against Person, the Rocky Mount win is still a better victory when you look at how the Knights played statistically. Rushing production was the only place where Northern did better than how they performed against Rocky Mount.
Best Loss - Wake Forest-Rolesville. The Cougars have dominated local area football for a few years now and there was little reason for folks outside of the Northern camp to expect a close affair between these two, but at home in newly renovated Durham County Stadium, the Knights played a spirited game eventually falling to currently 5-0 WFR, 26 to 29.
Riverside - (1 - 5 overall; 1 - 1 conference)
Wins - East Chapel Hill (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 1 - 6; PF - 40, PA - 23
Losses - Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Apex (4A), Chapel Hill (3A), Garner (4A), Wakefield (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 21 - 12; PF - 60, PA - 175
Strength of Schedule - 62 of 98 4A teams; (-17 since Week 2 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Even if the Wildcats are 1-6, a win is a win and when you haven't captured one the record doesn't matter. The Pirates placed two rushers over the century mark and piled up 246 rushing yards at a blistering 7.7 YPC average. Riverside was efficient through the air as well, passing for a respectable 121 yards for almost 9 YPA. The defense also stepped up, posting its best overall performance, limiting the Wildcats to only 3.2 YPC and 5 YPA, much improved from their statistics in their five previous losses.
Best Loss - Chapel Hill. The Pirates put up their best rushing performance of the 2010 year against the Tigers, rushing for 242 yards and averaging a stellar seven plus yards a carry. Through the air, Riverside had their second best passing performance of the season with 130 yards. Defensively, the Pirates were about average, although they were outstanding in the second half, limiting the Tigers to only nine points. Down 7 to 22 at the half, the Pirates showed their tenacity and credit to the Pirate coaching staff and leadership within to battle back in the second half and only fall by three, 28-31.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - Northern and Riverside have yet to play any common opponents. But there remains a few secondary connections. Wakefield-Millbrook, Garner-Millbrook, Garner-Middle Creek, Jordan-ECH. Northern lost to Millbrook and Middle Creek by over two touchdowns. They defeated Jordan last week by a touchdown. Riverside lost to Wakefield and Garner by a combined 0 to 69. They defeated ECH by 17. Going to the next level, Wakefield defeated Millbrook by two scores, Millbrook beat Garner by three and Garner ran past Middle Creek earlier in the year. At the moment, I would call Garner and Wakefield stronger teams than Millbrook and Middle Creek, but Riverside was completely out of their two contests while Northern was in closer battles with their two opponents. The slight edge appears to go to Northern, although just slightly.
Statistically Speaking - The Knights have put together a two game winning streak fueled by improved offensive numbers and a solid rush defense. In their four losses they are being outscored by almost two touchdowns, while in their three wins they are outscoring their opponents by close to two scores. The net result sees the Knights posting roughly 22 points a game and yielding just over 22 a game. Riverside, seems to be either feast or famine when it comes to scoring. In their six games, they've been shut-out three times and scored 28, 32 and 40 in their other three, including their win against East Chapel Hill. Defensively, their best performance was against the Wildcats where they yielded 23. Overall the Pirates are giving up 33 points while scoring roughly 17 a game.
The Knight offense appears to be heading in the right direction after posting two 160+ yard rushing performances in their first two conference games. More importantly, the Knights have seen their average per rush improve to over 5 YPC in their last two games, something they had not accomplished going into their contest with Person two weeks ago. On average, the Knights have been balanced, rushing for 121 YPG and passing for 125 YPG. They've run the ball roughly 56% of the time, averaging 4.2 YPC.
Northern's defense has faced some tough competition this year in the likes of Greensboro Page, Middle Creek, Millbrook and Wake Forest-Rolesville and find themselves yielding just 4.4 YPC, second only to Hillside in the conference who is giving up 4.1 YPC. The Knights are middle of the pack in the pass defense department yielding 5.9 YPA and 110 YPG. Teams have rushed for over 1100 yards on the Knights and average 158 YPG, good enough for third in the conference behind Jordan and Hillside.
Scoring via the run and ultimately rushing well has been a formula for success for the Knights as they average two rushing scores a game in their wins versus less than one rushing score in their four losses. Northern has posted eight rushing scores on the year to 13 through the air and augmented that total off of two defensive scores. Similar to the offensive side, when the defense limits rushing scores, they typically win the game. In their four losses they are giving up over two rushing touchdowns a game, while in their three victories they have allowed one rushing score a game. Overall, the Knights are giving up just under two rushing scores a game and just under one passing score a game. The Knights have given up one special team score and have been hit for three scores off of offensive miscues.
The Pirates that showed up to play East Chapel Hill were completely different than the team that has stepped onto the field the previous five weeks. In every statistical category, the Pirates improved and in many ways obliterated the averages from their five losses. On the year the Pirates are averaging 119 YPG rushing at 3.9 YPC and put together a stellar performance against the Wildcats for 264 yards rushing at 7.7 YPC. Similarly, in the passing game, after averaging 133 YPG at 5.4 YPA, Riverside focused more on the run and selectively connected in the passing game for 121 yards at a strong 8.6 YPA.
The Pirates defense has struggled, most notably in the passing game, but on Friday night against Air-Renner, the Pirates put together their top showing of the year allowing just 169 yards on 34 attempts for a strong 5 YPA average. Compared to the 9.8 YPA and 175 yards they are giving up on the year, it's a step in the right direction. On the ground, the Pirates are near the bottom of the conference, yielding 5 YPC, only Person and East Chapel Hill are yielding more. Against, ECH, the Pirates halted their rush attack to a unimpressive 3.2 YPC.
The Pirates have been shut-out three times this year and that has hurt their overall scoring numbers, where they have reached the end zone just 12 times on offense and twice through opposing teams miscues on offense. Five of their 12 offensive scores were tallied against ECH in the form of four rushing touchdowns and one passing score. Defensively, they've been hurt by yielding 16 total rushing scores, six scores through the air, four special teams scores and one offensive miscue leading to a score. The Pirates have been hit the worst on special teams with their four scores. Only Southern, Northern and East Chapel Hill have yielded a score on special teams and that was only one a piece.
All Those Other Items
Both teams come in on a winning streak, although the Knights is more substantive with wins over Jordan and Person. Both are putting up their best offensive numbers of the year over those wins and are both playing better defense than earlier in the year. Even though both teams line up in traditional spread type sets, Northern typically in a 3 by 1 or 2 by 2 set and Riverside in their traditional 2 by 1 and 2 back set, success comes in running the ball for both teams. For well-schooled teams, especially spread teams, it's alway about how you constrain the opposition. Spread teams attempt to create a choice for the defense, reduce your numbers in the box to defend the spread or keep a numbers advantage on the interior and rely on more folks to play well in space on the edges. Over the last two games for Northern and Riverside's contest against ECH, both offenses were highly productive in spreading the opposition and subsequently gashing their rush defenses for 5+ YPC in all instances. Ultimately, how well each team does this against each other on Friday will be the biggest clue to who takes home the victory.
Another interesting element to this game will be on special teams. The Pirates have struggled in this area of the game giving up four scores. On the other side, Northern has given up one score. Neither team has scored on special teams, but Northern has the athletes to exploit a breakdown in punt or kick-off coverage and it will be important for the Pirates to limit any additional damage that might occur in this area. At the very least, limiting returns in both areas will be a huge bonus for the Pirates.
The Final Analysis
Entering week three of the conference season, two programs that have struggled of late are theoretically still in the driver's seat for the conference crown. Although they both have Southern and Hillside remaining on their schedules (Riverside also has Jordan), for Friday night, they only have to worry about the here and now and whomever can get the W will be sitting atop the conference and still at the controls.
It's tough to take too much from Riverside's victory over East Chapel Hill as they have struggled to stop anyone that even attempts to run the ball. But, the Pirates did perform well against East's passing attack, something we believe to be better than average. The reality is that going into tonight's contest, the Pirates are going to need to stop Northern's rush attack and put up yardage on their end through their two back attack. The formula is no different for the Knights, halt the Pirate rushing attack and pave road with Taylor and company. Everything tells me that the Knights are going to be able to run the ball more effectively this evening, but I don't see them completely shutting down the Riverside attack. Look for a close game throughout that might only become lopsided near the end if one team gains the emotional momentum.
As one final aside, so far in two weeks, I've picked Northern's point total exactly correct and in the Person game picked the overall score correct - go figure - I certainly wouldn't put much into it - other than a bit of science and analysis (just kidding). Enjoy the games this evening!
DFBFan's Pick - Northern Durham (2-0) at Riverside (1-0)
Northern Durham - 27
Riverside - 14
Losses - Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Apex (4A), Chapel Hill (3A), Garner (4A), Wakefield (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 21 - 12; PF - 60, PA - 175
Strength of Schedule - 62 of 98 4A teams; (-17 since Week 2 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Even if the Wildcats are 1-6, a win is a win and when you haven't captured one the record doesn't matter. The Pirates placed two rushers over the century mark and piled up 246 rushing yards at a blistering 7.7 YPC average. Riverside was efficient through the air as well, passing for a respectable 121 yards for almost 9 YPA. The defense also stepped up, posting its best overall performance, limiting the Wildcats to only 3.2 YPC and 5 YPA, much improved from their statistics in their five previous losses.
Best Loss - Chapel Hill. The Pirates put up their best rushing performance of the 2010 year against the Tigers, rushing for 242 yards and averaging a stellar seven plus yards a carry. Through the air, Riverside had their second best passing performance of the season with 130 yards. Defensively, the Pirates were about average, although they were outstanding in the second half, limiting the Tigers to only nine points. Down 7 to 22 at the half, the Pirates showed their tenacity and credit to the Pirate coaching staff and leadership within to battle back in the second half and only fall by three, 28-31.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - Northern and Riverside have yet to play any common opponents. But there remains a few secondary connections. Wakefield-Millbrook, Garner-Millbrook, Garner-Middle Creek, Jordan-ECH. Northern lost to Millbrook and Middle Creek by over two touchdowns. They defeated Jordan last week by a touchdown. Riverside lost to Wakefield and Garner by a combined 0 to 69. They defeated ECH by 17. Going to the next level, Wakefield defeated Millbrook by two scores, Millbrook beat Garner by three and Garner ran past Middle Creek earlier in the year. At the moment, I would call Garner and Wakefield stronger teams than Millbrook and Middle Creek, but Riverside was completely out of their two contests while Northern was in closer battles with their two opponents. The slight edge appears to go to Northern, although just slightly.
Statistically Speaking - The Knights have put together a two game winning streak fueled by improved offensive numbers and a solid rush defense. In their four losses they are being outscored by almost two touchdowns, while in their three wins they are outscoring their opponents by close to two scores. The net result sees the Knights posting roughly 22 points a game and yielding just over 22 a game. Riverside, seems to be either feast or famine when it comes to scoring. In their six games, they've been shut-out three times and scored 28, 32 and 40 in their other three, including their win against East Chapel Hill. Defensively, their best performance was against the Wildcats where they yielded 23. Overall the Pirates are giving up 33 points while scoring roughly 17 a game.
The Knight offense appears to be heading in the right direction after posting two 160+ yard rushing performances in their first two conference games. More importantly, the Knights have seen their average per rush improve to over 5 YPC in their last two games, something they had not accomplished going into their contest with Person two weeks ago. On average, the Knights have been balanced, rushing for 121 YPG and passing for 125 YPG. They've run the ball roughly 56% of the time, averaging 4.2 YPC.
Northern's defense has faced some tough competition this year in the likes of Greensboro Page, Middle Creek, Millbrook and Wake Forest-Rolesville and find themselves yielding just 4.4 YPC, second only to Hillside in the conference who is giving up 4.1 YPC. The Knights are middle of the pack in the pass defense department yielding 5.9 YPA and 110 YPG. Teams have rushed for over 1100 yards on the Knights and average 158 YPG, good enough for third in the conference behind Jordan and Hillside.
Scoring via the run and ultimately rushing well has been a formula for success for the Knights as they average two rushing scores a game in their wins versus less than one rushing score in their four losses. Northern has posted eight rushing scores on the year to 13 through the air and augmented that total off of two defensive scores. Similar to the offensive side, when the defense limits rushing scores, they typically win the game. In their four losses they are giving up over two rushing touchdowns a game, while in their three victories they have allowed one rushing score a game. Overall, the Knights are giving up just under two rushing scores a game and just under one passing score a game. The Knights have given up one special team score and have been hit for three scores off of offensive miscues.
The Pirates that showed up to play East Chapel Hill were completely different than the team that has stepped onto the field the previous five weeks. In every statistical category, the Pirates improved and in many ways obliterated the averages from their five losses. On the year the Pirates are averaging 119 YPG rushing at 3.9 YPC and put together a stellar performance against the Wildcats for 264 yards rushing at 7.7 YPC. Similarly, in the passing game, after averaging 133 YPG at 5.4 YPA, Riverside focused more on the run and selectively connected in the passing game for 121 yards at a strong 8.6 YPA.
The Pirates defense has struggled, most notably in the passing game, but on Friday night against Air-Renner, the Pirates put together their top showing of the year allowing just 169 yards on 34 attempts for a strong 5 YPA average. Compared to the 9.8 YPA and 175 yards they are giving up on the year, it's a step in the right direction. On the ground, the Pirates are near the bottom of the conference, yielding 5 YPC, only Person and East Chapel Hill are yielding more. Against, ECH, the Pirates halted their rush attack to a unimpressive 3.2 YPC.
The Pirates have been shut-out three times this year and that has hurt their overall scoring numbers, where they have reached the end zone just 12 times on offense and twice through opposing teams miscues on offense. Five of their 12 offensive scores were tallied against ECH in the form of four rushing touchdowns and one passing score. Defensively, they've been hurt by yielding 16 total rushing scores, six scores through the air, four special teams scores and one offensive miscue leading to a score. The Pirates have been hit the worst on special teams with their four scores. Only Southern, Northern and East Chapel Hill have yielded a score on special teams and that was only one a piece.
All Those Other Items
Both teams come in on a winning streak, although the Knights is more substantive with wins over Jordan and Person. Both are putting up their best offensive numbers of the year over those wins and are both playing better defense than earlier in the year. Even though both teams line up in traditional spread type sets, Northern typically in a 3 by 1 or 2 by 2 set and Riverside in their traditional 2 by 1 and 2 back set, success comes in running the ball for both teams. For well-schooled teams, especially spread teams, it's alway about how you constrain the opposition. Spread teams attempt to create a choice for the defense, reduce your numbers in the box to defend the spread or keep a numbers advantage on the interior and rely on more folks to play well in space on the edges. Over the last two games for Northern and Riverside's contest against ECH, both offenses were highly productive in spreading the opposition and subsequently gashing their rush defenses for 5+ YPC in all instances. Ultimately, how well each team does this against each other on Friday will be the biggest clue to who takes home the victory.
Another interesting element to this game will be on special teams. The Pirates have struggled in this area of the game giving up four scores. On the other side, Northern has given up one score. Neither team has scored on special teams, but Northern has the athletes to exploit a breakdown in punt or kick-off coverage and it will be important for the Pirates to limit any additional damage that might occur in this area. At the very least, limiting returns in both areas will be a huge bonus for the Pirates.
The Final Analysis
Entering week three of the conference season, two programs that have struggled of late are theoretically still in the driver's seat for the conference crown. Although they both have Southern and Hillside remaining on their schedules (Riverside also has Jordan), for Friday night, they only have to worry about the here and now and whomever can get the W will be sitting atop the conference and still at the controls.
It's tough to take too much from Riverside's victory over East Chapel Hill as they have struggled to stop anyone that even attempts to run the ball. But, the Pirates did perform well against East's passing attack, something we believe to be better than average. The reality is that going into tonight's contest, the Pirates are going to need to stop Northern's rush attack and put up yardage on their end through their two back attack. The formula is no different for the Knights, halt the Pirate rushing attack and pave road with Taylor and company. Everything tells me that the Knights are going to be able to run the ball more effectively this evening, but I don't see them completely shutting down the Riverside attack. Look for a close game throughout that might only become lopsided near the end if one team gains the emotional momentum.
As one final aside, so far in two weeks, I've picked Northern's point total exactly correct and in the Person game picked the overall score correct - go figure - I certainly wouldn't put much into it - other than a bit of science and analysis (just kidding). Enjoy the games this evening!
DFBFan's Pick - Northern Durham (2-0) at Riverside (1-0)
Northern Durham - 27
Riverside - 14
No comments:
Post a Comment