Jordan will enter Friday's contest with a lot of question marks that can only be answered with what occurs on the field. After starting off to a hot 5-1 mark they faltered in their second conference game against a rebuilding and perhaps surging Northern Durham squad. It's clear that Jordan's non-conference schedule was in many ways the exact opposite to Southern's, almost last out of 98 4A schools in strength, but maybe more telling was the fact that against teams like Green Hope, Grimsley and Enloe, which have all struggled this year (a total of just two wins with 18 games played), they managed to outscore them on average by just over two touchdowns. That by itself might not seem important, until you look at the fact that in the sixteen other contests where they lost, they were outscored on average by close to 30 points. Although most of the schedule has been without teeth, they played one of the strongest teams in the area earlier this year when the Catamounts came to Durham. The result in retrospect to many is what was expected as Panther Creek walked away with a 30 to 14 victory and limited the Falcon rushing attack to negative yardage heading into the fourth quarter.
Southern will be one of the most athletic teams the Falcons have faced so far this season, but will not be as finely tuned as Panther Creek. For Southern, they face a team that knows they need to get back on track after stumbling to Northern in order to stay in the conference hunt, with Hillside still around the corner. Southern, knows that wins are at a premium now, with only one at the moment, if they expect to be playing in November they best get that second one sooner as opposed to later. Don't know about you, but this game has the fixin's to be a good one...with that said, let's get started!
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Southern Durham - (1 - 6 overall, 1 - 1 conference)
Wins - Person (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 1 - 6; PF - 39, PA - 0
Losses - JH Rose (4A), Middle Creek (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Douglas Byrd (4A), Millbrook (4A), Hillside (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 32 - 12; PF - 82, PA - 120
Strength of Schedule - 13 of 98 4A teams; (-12 from Week 2 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Person. It was clear after seeing the Spartans in person that what we had expected was at least in part true. They had played top-notch competition and simply were unable to get that last first down or negate a late penalty or turnover to get a win. That all changed when they stepped onto the field against a Rocket team that simply didn't have the fire-power or athletic ability to compete. The Spartans exploded on the offensive side of the ball, looking like a completely different team, with 264 yards rushing and over 7 YPC, while adding 160 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Defensively, a fast an athletic group, shined, limiting the Rocket rush attack to under 3 YPC and under 100 yards passing. The win doesn't change the fact that the Spartans are still 1-6, but it does indicate that they can move the ball and definitely can stop folks, but who they play matters to this young team.
Best Loss - Hillside. We know Southern has played an incredible schedule, now considered by computer-guru Pasteur the #1 toughest schedule in 4A ball and oh by the way, #1 overall for every school in the state of NC, all classifications (prior to Hillside game). On Friday night, they did what they've done all year long, play tough, competitive football against quality teams and then find themselves in the position late to get their first victory of the 2010 season against arguably one of the top 10 4A teams in the state. Statistically, it wasn't a great night for the Spartans as they were only better than their season averages in the rush per attempt category, picking up 5.2 YPC versus a season average of 3.0 YPC. Some could argue taking Judd's 80 yard run out of the mix would show that statistically they really struggled (it was a bit of an outlier) and those folks would have a valid gripe. Still, the Spartans did what they needed as the game progressed based on where the game was in that moment and almost took the victory.
Previously - Byrd. Almost all of Southern's defeats have been competitive, but the contest against Byrd had the Spartans leading 7-6 at halftime and it wasn't until late that Byrd made the plays to take home the victory. The Spartan offense picked up a season high of 224 yards through the air and had their second best rushing total of the year although in both cases they had a high number of attempts. Defensively the Spartans limited Byrd to just over 200 yards of offense. As with most of their losses they appear to be close, but not close enough to pulling out the W.
Charles E. Jordan (5 - 2 overall, 1 - 1 conference)
Wins - Orange (3A), Green Hope (4A), Greensboro Grimsley (4A), Enloe (4A), ECH (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 4 - 29; PF - 153, PA - 43
Losses - Panther Creek (4A), Northern Durham (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 9 - 4; PF - 28, PA - 51
Strength of Schedule - 92 of 98 4A teams; (-2 from Week 2 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - East Chapel Hill. This victory is close to that of the Orange victory in dominance, but a few items push this to the Best Win category. First, the Falcons dismantled the East rush defense to the tune of 8.3 YPC and 323 yards. Impressive, whether or not the competition is good or not against the run. This is something you expect from a good or dominant team, if the opposition can't stop the run, you run it and you run it at a blistering pace and 8.3 YPC is blistering. Also impressive was how the Falcon pass defense stepped up and short-circuited Air-Renner. Prior to the contest the Wildcats were averaging over 300 yards a game through the air and were limited to just 174 yards. Yards are important, but even more impressive, the Falcons' allowing just 3.7 YPA through the air. The Falcon pass defense continues to impress.
Previously - Orange. The most dominating game they've played was their first game. The Falcons averaged over six and half yards per carry rushing the ball while picking up close to 15 yards per attempt through the air. Four of their scores were on the ground and complimented by two more through the air. Add in two additional defensive scores, a fumble recovery by Thorpe and an interception return by safety Phil Williamson and the 50-6 tsunami is about as complete as you could be, no less in your first showing out the gate.
Best Loss - Panther Creek. The Catamounts are one of the better teams in the RDU area and with their balanced offensive attack and attacking defense have a solid chance of capturing the competitive Tri-9 crown while also being a legitimate play-off contender. The Falcons turned the ball over in key stretches against PC and in general the Catamounts responded. Add to that, Thorpe exiting the game for the entire fourth quarter of play and the outcome could have been different.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - Southern and Jordan have not faced any common opponents going into their contest. There are a number of secondary connections including Northern, Person, Grimsley, Hillside, Middle Creek, Green Hope, WFR and Enloe. Jordan defeated Grimsley and Green Hope in modest fashion, while Southern lost to both Hillside and Middle Creek in close games. Jordan got a slightly more convincing victory against Enloe 21-9, while Southern lost by seven to WFR. The connection comes in Hillside demolishing Grimsley (42-8) and Middle Creek flying past Green Hope 37-0. Additionally, WFR shut-out Enloe a week ago 42-0. The final comparison is Southern easily winning over Person, while a week earlier Northern soundly defeated Person. All of these instances, as a back of the envelope approximation point to the edge being with the Spartans.
Statistically Speaking - Heading into the Person game, the Spartans had scored just 82 total points for just under two touchdowns a game, but exploded against the Rockets for 39 points raising their average to just over 17 points a game, 17.29 to be exact. Why two decimal places, to show an interesting fact, although 1-6 on the year, the Spartans have given up just 120 total points or just 17.14 points a game. Incredible that they are 1-6 and scoring just slightly more than they are giving up. Jordan tied their lowest output of the year last week against Northern at 14 points, same as against Panther Creek and overall are putting up just under 26 points a game. Defensively, they've been solid in their five wins allowing just under nine a game, but life hasn't been as good against tougher competition and as result they are giving up roughly 14 points a game.
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FIGURE 1 (COURTESY THE DFBFan) |
The Southern offense struggled early in the year trying to run the ball gaining just 3 YPC as a high in their first four games. But since a sub 3 YPC performance against Byrd, the Spartans have gotten progressively better posting a +5 YPC average against a quality Hornet defense and then putting up over 7 YPC against Person to go along with 264 yards. On the year they have improved their numbers to just under 4 YPC but are only averaging 105 YPG rushing. In the passing game, they've had five of seven games where they've put up 150 yards or more and two where they've passed the 200 yard mark. They've been consistent in both their six losses and win against Person averaging just over 6 YPA for a season average of 6.2 YPA. The Spartans have been balanced in their attack, rushing the ball 190 times while passing 173. Figure 1 provides a breakdown of the Southern and Jordan offensive yardage statistics.
The Spartan defense had one of their best overall performances against the Rockets, allowing just 165 total yards and under 3 YPC and just at 5 YPA. Both of these averages were will below their season averages of 4.5 YPC and 6 YPA. The Southern defense showed against a strong and explosive Hillside unit that they could bend and give up yardage, over 350 yards and still stay in a ball game, while the Person game showed they could simply dominate given the right opponent.
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FIGURE 2 (COURTESY THE DFBFan) |
Southern has found it tough getting to the end zone this year, until Person came to town. They had scored just four times on the ground prior to Person and then ran off three scores. Similarly, in the passing game they had seven scores and then added close to 50% of what they had accomplished to-date in one game with three more scores against the Rockets. Defensively, the Spartans have been hurt on the ground yielding 12 scores, while teams have added another five scores through the air and one additional score due to a turnover by the offense. A breakdown of how Southern is scoring can be viewed in Figure 2. Figure 3 provides a breakdown of how the opposition has scored on Southern.
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FIGURE 3 (COURTESY THE DFBFan) |
Yardage wise the Hornet offense has been dominant in the conference, but the Falcons are no slouch as they have notched 1000+ yards in both the rushing and passing categories as well. Where the Hornets have excelled in comparison to the Falcons have been in the averages. Jordan is rushing just over 5 YPC while the Hornets are putting up close to 6 YPC against tougher competition. Similarly the Falcons have averaged roughly 7.3 YPA, while the Hornets have 9.6 YPA. Overall, the Falcons are averaging 161 YPG rushing and 154 YPG passing. Important to note in these statistics is that win or lose the Falcons have gotten their passing yards, no doubt Thorpe has been a big part of that as their only sub 150 yard passing game came against Green Hope where he sat out with an injury. On the flip side, they've rushed for their season average in every game but three this season, their two losses to Panther Creek and Northern Durham and a slim five point win against a one win Grimsley squad where they managed just 50 yards.
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FIGURE 4 (COURTESY THE DFBFan) |
Defensively, the Falcons stumbled against the Knight rush attack, yielding a season high 191 yards at just over 5 YPC. Similar to the Spartans, the Falcon rush defense is giving up 4.6 YPC on the year and 126 YPG. In the air, the Falcons have been strong, yielding just 4.2 YPA for the season and only 3.9 YPA in their five victories. Opponents have posted roughly 100 YPG passing with just 10 more yards per game in their two losses. How Southern is able to rush the ball against the Falcon defense will be a huge clue in the outcome of Friday night's contest. Figure 4 provides a breakdown of how both the Southern and Jordan defenses have played against their competition this season.
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FIGURE 5 (COURTESY THE DFBFan) |
The Falcon offense continues to be balanced going into their third conference game as they have scored 11 touchdowns on the ground to 12 through the air. They've added an additional four scores through help from the defense. Similarly, the defense has been balanced yielding five scores on the ground and six through the air, while the Falcon offense has coughed the ball up twice for scores. Figures 5 and 6 provide a breakdown of how Jordan has scored and been scored on during the 2010 season.
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FIGURE 6 (COURTESY THE DFBFan) |
All Those Other Items
The Falcons have faced two quality opponents in the 2010 season and come up short on both occasions, while they've gotten by their other five opponents in somewhat modest fashion. The Spartans have played a tougher schedule and ended up in about the same boat. Losing six games against six quality opponents, while taking care of business in convincing fashion against a team they were clearly better than from start to finish. In many ways there are still a number of unknowns for both teams. For Jordan, we know against inferior competition they can get the W, although they haven't been as convincing in those victories as one might expect. Against better competition they've fallen and when that competition is a team like Panther Creek, which may be one of the top teams in the state, you learn and move on and get better. But a key game for Jordan was the Northern loss. The verdict is still out on Northern as well. They have played a tough schedule and come away with victories against an average Rocky Mount squad and struggling Person team. So to say that Northern is a good team maybe premature. Moreover, to say they are good because they beat a five win Jordan team where their five victories were against a combined 4 and 29 record is a bit of stretch as well. The reality, as I put forth last week, is that a strong 5-1 Jordan team beats a 2-4 Northern team, unless that Northern squad is going to end the season at 7-4. Or, perhaps the wins aren't going to come quite as swiftly during the remainder of the year for the Falcons. Jordan could lose the next two weeks and pick up wins against Riverside and ECH and finish 7-4 with quite possibly their seven wins against teams when you combine their wins haven't exceeded the 10 win mark. This is a game that the Falcons need to win, not simply to get back into the conference race, but to state their claim to a quality win, the type of win that shows they can compete come playoff time.
Southern's identity is still a bit of a mystery as well. They've played very good competition close, but lost all six of those contests. Against, a weaker opponent, they played well, their best game of the year. Against Jordan they will face a team somewhere in between. It would be a signature win for Southern, if only because their only other win was against Person. But more importantly, it's a game that matters if only psychologically due to Jordan's 5 and 2 mark. There will be more folks than not that say Jordan is the favorite, correct or not, and for that reason, this win more than Person is important in Southern's resume.
The Final Analysis
To say there is a lot riding on this game would be a huge understatement. In many ways both teams need this win. For Jordan this is a game that tells the area that they can play ball against quality competition and win, while for Southern, it's for the playoffs, every game is crucial at this point and without this victory the Spartans will be in a situation where they must run the table in their final three. Add to those two story lines the fact that for either team to get back in the conference race a win at this juncture seems to be a must.
Last week, Thorpe took over from an offensive perspective for the Falcons, accounting for 134 yards receiving out of the 154 passing yards the Falcons tallied. He also ran for 22 of the 87 rushing yards and accounted for their only two scores, one by ground the other through the air. To break it down another level, Thorpe accounted for 65% of the Falcon offense. It is no surprise that Thorpe can pile up those numbers, but against quality competition, others are going to have to step up to burden some of the load. The more that others on the Falcon offense excel, the tougher it becomes to concentrate on one of the most dominant players to step foot in Durham in the past 10 years.
Southern will face a tougher challenge than what they saw last week against Person, but could find themselves in trouble if they let the memories of a week ago cloud the fact that they are facing a team that has taken two of four from them recently. The Southern defense will have to attempt to contain Thorpe while shutting down the Falcon rushing attack, while their offense must have a solid rushing performance of their own to get the W on Friday.
A tough game to call, but after seeing both of these teams in action and looking over the information about how they have performed, I see the Spartans squeaking out a close one in Claude Currie Stadium
DFBFan's Pick - Southern Durham (1 - 1) at Jordan (1 - 1)
Southern Durham - 21
Jordan - 20
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