Momentum is just as pertinent for the visiting Falcons. It appears without question that no matter the outcome of tonight's game that the Falcons will be going to playoffs and similarly it appears that if folks across the state play out the games in the majority as are expected a win or loss will probably have little effect on where the Falcons end up and who they play, but that doesn't take away from the fact that a complete and solid performance this evening could be that small element of concentrated and focused momentum that the Falcons need to get past the first round of the playoffs. Something they haven't accomplished since 2006 when they won the PAC-6 and went on to the second round of the playoffs before being ousted by eventual 4AA state runner-up Riverside.
The Falcons are coming off a late season bye week after taking down Person in a thriller for their senior night. Riverside put up a rugged effort against the Rockets last week and fell by eight and according to published reports the aftermath was anything but rosy between teams. Clearly a lot of frustration has set in for the Pirates and it will be important during their senior night this evening that they stay focused and unified. The Falcons were predicted by some to have the potential to be playing for a top three finish when the season began, but were also deemed to be a part of a mass of teams in the middle that could go just about anywhere by others. As it turns out they are right now looking at being the team directly in the middle at 3-3 with a win against the Pirates.
Who desires to grab the momentum for the next chapter in each of these teams seasons will be a key ingredient in who takes home the victory tonight and maybe just as important the extra push critical for moving forward down the road. Game time is approaching...so let's get started.
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Charles E. Jordan (6 - 4 overall, 2 - 3 conference)
Wins - Orange (3A), Green Hope (4A), Greensboro Grimsley (4A), Enloe (4A), ECH (4A), Person (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 7 - 54 (0.11 WP); PF - 174, PA - 60
Losses - Panther Creek (4A), Northern Durham (4A), Southern Durham (4A), Hillside (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 29 - 12 (0.71 WP); PF - 56, PA - 113
Strength of Schedule - 96 of 98 4A teams; (-12 from Week 5 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Person. Sometimes statistics really can be thrown out the window. I've talked often about games teams win and lose and what that means to their make-up - their DNA. Well, the win against Person, although not anywhere near as dominant a performance as what they put forward against the Wildcats showed something different; against a team that had been improving and in many ways was about even with the Falcons, they could get the win. Moreover, they were down late and in many regards were being beaten in most areas of the game, but found something deep down to make it happen late. Teams that are working to be better than average win these games, even when it seems as though nothing is going right and on that particular night the Falcons made all of the plays necessary late to get the W.
Previously - East Chapel Hill. This victory is close to that of the Orange victory in dominance, but a few items push this to the Best Win category. First, the Falcons dismantled the East rush defense to the tune of 8.3 YPC and 323 yards. Impressive, whether or not the competition is good or not against the run. This is something you expect from a good or dominant team, if the opposition can't stop the run, you run it and you run it at a blistering pace and 8.3 YPC is blistering. Also impressive was how the Falcon pass defense stepped up and short-circuited Air-Renner. Prior to the contest the Wildcats were averaging over 300 yards a game through the air and were limited to just 174 yards. Yards are important, but even more impressive, the Falcons' allowing just 3.7 YPA through the air. The Falcon pass defense continues to impress.
Previously - Orange. The most dominating game they've played was their first game. The Falcons averaged over six and half yards per carry rushing the ball while picking up close to 15 yards per attempt through the air. Four of their scores were on the ground and complimented by two more through the air. Add in two additional defensive scores, a fumble recovery by Thorpe and an interception return by safety Phil Williamson and the 50-6 tsunami is about as complete as you could be, no less in your first showing out the gate.
Best Loss - Panther Creek. The Catamounts are one of the better teams in the RDU area and with their balanced offensive attack and attacking defense have a solid chance of capturing the competitive Tri-9 crown while also being a legitimate play-off contender. The Falcons turned the ball over in key stretches against PC and in general the Catamounts responded. Add to that, Thorpe exiting the game for the entire fourth quarter of play and the outcome could have been different.
Riverside - (1 - 9 overall; 1 - 4 conference)
Wins - East Chapel Hill (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 1 - 9 (0.10 WP); PF - 40, PA - 23
Losses - Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Apex (4A), Chapel Hill (3A), Garner (4A), Wakefield (4A), Northern Durham (4A), Southern Durham (4A), Hillside (4A), Person (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 56 - 36 (0.61 WP); PF - 122, PA - 341
Strength of Schedule - 55 of 98 4A teams; (-21 since Week 6 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Even if the Wildcats are 1-6, a win is a win and when you haven't captured one the record doesn't matter. The Pirates placed two rushers over the century mark and piled up 246 rushing yards at a blistering 7.7 YPC average. Riverside was efficient through the air as well, passing for a respectable 121 yards for almost 9 YPA. The defense also stepped up, posting its best overall performance, limiting the Wildcats to only 3.2 YPC and 5 YPA, much improved from their statistics in their five previous losses.
Best Loss - Chapel Hill. The Pirates put up their best rushing performance of the 2010 year against the Tigers, rushing for 242 yards and averaging a stellar seven plus yards a carry. Through the air, Riverside had their second best passing performance of the season with 130 yards. Defensively, the Pirates were about average, although they were outstanding in the second half, limiting the Tigers to only nine points. Down 7 to 22 at the half, the Pirates showed their tenacity and credit to the Pirate coaching staff and leadership within to battle back in the second half and only fall by three, 28-31.
Honorable mention - Person. Although the Pirates were unable to run the ball on the Rockets they played some of the strongest defense on the year against the rush and in the end made plays on the offensive side of the ball to stay close up until the very end.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - With the season closing out, both teams have played the full complement of PAC-6 opponents providing five common opponents. Jordan is 2-3 against this competition while the Pirates are 1-4. In many ways these two teams can throw out their overall records and simply look at their conference marks and what they've done in those games to get a good idea of where they stand relative to one another. Jordan is scoring just under 20 points per game while the Pirates are scoring just over 20 per game. The differential is just 0.6 points. A much larger differential exists in points yielded. The Falcons are giving up just over 21 a game while the Pirates have been hit for almost 38 per game.
Offensively, the teams have been about the same on the ground with neither rushing for more than 4 YPC and only 13 yards per game separating them, with Jordan reaching roughly 123 per game. Through the air, the Pirates have the advantage in both yards per game at 168 and yards per attempt at 7.3 compared to Jordan's 5.2. Defensively, the Falcons take the edge, although both have been hit hard on the ground allowing 187 (Jordan) to 202 (Riverside) per game and 5.43 YPC (Jordan) to 6.44 YPC (Riverside). The Falcons' strong pass defense is allowing just 5.4 YPA to the Pirates 6.2 YPA, but both teams are allowing right around 130 yards through the air.
The similarities continue in scoring offense where the Falcons have combined for 14 total scores to Riverside's 15. Defensively, the Falcons have given up 15 scores while the Pirates have yielded 27 scores.
It's tough to get a strong bearing on these numbers other than to say they look even in most cases although when it comes to holding teams out of the end zone, the Falcons have done a better job against common opponents.
Statistically Speaking - The Falcons rank fourth in the conference in scoring at 23 per game while their defense is a bit better at third in the conference giving up just over 17 per game. In their six victories the Falcons are adding roughly a touchdown more per game, while they are limiting teams to roughly one less jaunt into the end zone. In their losses they are picking up two fewer scores while giving up close to 18 points more per game. They have yet to shut any teams out this year, but have managed to hold four teams to under 10 points. The Pirates are last in the league in scoring at just about 16 per game and are sixth in points given up at just over 36 per game. They've been shut out four times this year and held under 10 in one additional game. In their other games the lowest point total they've put forward was 27 points, most recently against Person.
The Falcon offense has slowed down a bit as conference has picked up and most of that slow down has been seen in their rushing attack which is fourth in the league at just over 133 YPG and 4.3 YPC. In their four losses they've been held to under 100 yards rushing in each game with a high of 87 against Northern Durham. Moreover they've had a tough go in general at picking up even three yards and a good ol' cloud of dust in those losses as they are managing just under 2 YPC. On the season their top rushing performance was against East Chapel Hill where they put up over 300 yards on the ground to the tune of over 8 YPC. Through the air, the Falcons are managing just over 136 yards per game and are ranked near the bottom of the conference at sixth. They are picking up 6 YPA placing them fifth in the conference. In their wins they've passed for 100 or more yards in four of six and their max for the season was against ECH with 195 yards.
Defensively the Falcons are middle of the conference against the rush allowing just over 155 yards per game. They are sixth in the league at 4.92 YPC allowed. They've given up roughly 70 more yards per game rushing in their losses, but on the average have given up the same number of yards per attempt. In their four losses they've yielded 139 yards or more in each of the games, whereas in their six wins they have limited four of the six teams to under 121 yards per game. The strength of the Falcon defense throughout the season has been against the pass and that continues to be the case where they rank first in yards allowed per attempt at just under five per game. They are third in the league in yards passing allowed per game at 109 and in their six wins have limited the opposition to 122 yards or less four of the six games. Interestingly, the Falcons continue to be a team that has been passed on the most in the league while posting the best numbers - someone once told me if you keep doing something that isn't working - that's the definition of insanity, I'll let you go figure that one out.
The Falcons have been balanced when its come to scoring, putting the ball into the end zone 16 times on the ground to 14 through the air. That places them second and third in the league respectively. Their defense is no slouch as well manufacturing four scores of their own, also good for second in the league. Interestingly, the Falcons have still been held to no special teams scores on the year and you have to believe with the explosive capabilities of Thorpe returning punts and kick-offs that this just might be a break-out game for that unit. Defensively the Falcons are second in the league in allowing just 1.2 rushing touchdowns a game and less than one passing score per game. They've yielded one special team score on the year, back against Southern Durham, and due to offensive miscues have given up three additional scores.
The Pirates' offense and specifically the rushing attack has struggled as they currently rank last in the league in yards per carry at just 3.5 YPC. They are seventh in the conference at total rushing yards per game at just over 100 per game. They've had at least five games where they've been held to under 100 yards rushing and their top effort of the year was against 3A Chapel Hill early in the year where they put up 242 yards. Surprisingly, even with the injuries to multiple quarterbacks this year, through the air is where the Pirates have picked up the majority of their yards and they rank fourth in the league at almost 150 yards per game. They've thrown the second highest number of attempts in the league and are sixth in the league when it comes to what they are picking up per attempt at just 5.9.
Defensively, similar to the East Chapel Hill Wildcats, is where things break down for the Pirates. They rank either sixth or seventh in the league in every category that matters. They are giving up roughly 193 yards per game rushing at 5.9 per carry and through the air teams have picked up over 156 at a blistering 8.9 per attempt. They've had only one game where they've limited the opposition to less than 100 yards rushing and have given up 196 or more yards in six of nine losses. Through the air they've given up 100 or more yards in seven of their nine games and the only two teams to not go over 100 were Hillside that ran for close to 8 YPC on the ground against them (you have the feeling there was no need) and against a Wake Forest-Rolesville team that typically likes to keep it on the ground if at all possible.
The Pirates are sixth in the league in rushing scores at roughly 1.3 per game and last in the league through the air at 0.9 per game. They have yet to score on special teams and have picked up two scores via their defense. Defensively they are giving up over three rushing scores a game second to last in the league and over one passing touchdown per game. They have been hit hard on special teams ranking last in the league, yielding five scores on the year. Their offense has also given up two scores.
All Those Other Items
These teams know each other well and no matter how one team is or is not doing each year they always seem to have a close game. Statistically against similar competition there is a lot of similarity between the two and other than the Jordan defense appearing to be a clear leader it's tough to go one way or the other if you throw the overall records out the window.
Two big picture items will make this game go one way or the other. First is attitude. The Falcons could easily overlook this game and find themselves in a position they don't want be in and if the Pirates can capitalize early then a game may be had during their senior night. On the flip side, after last week's potential blow-up at the end of the Person game, it's unclear how focused this Pirate team will be tonight. Is the season over to them or does this game still mean something. If their attitude is the former then they have a long night ahead of them.
The second element is how both teams start. The Pirates have been notorious this year for slow starts averaging a league worst seven points a game going into the half. If that is all they can manage again tonight, things will probably be tough. On the flip side, if the Pirates struggle to score and the Falcons don't make them pay by mounting a lead, the fourth quarter will be more important than thinking about Char-Grill after the game.
The Final Analysis
Momentum in many ways should already be on the side of the Falcons after a thrilling come from behind victory over Person and the knowledge that their ticket should already be punched for the post-season. All that remains is securing another win and keeping a good thing going. For the Pirates, a hard fought game against Person that culminated in a crushing and emotionally draining loss seems to be the type of game that a 1-9 team uses to begin thinking about basketball season and how the team chooses to respond to that idea and represent Riverside on their senior night will be an important element in win or lose how this game plays out.
My vote - both teams play to gain that momentum for their next part of the season, period!
DFBFan's Pick - Jordan (2-3) at Riverside (1-4)
Jordan - 28
Riverside - 20
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