The Knights were an unlikely conference champion possibility heading into the season and even when they began PAC-6 play many outside of the confines of BCFforS's projected them to be middle of the pack if not worse. But a resurgence of traditional Knight play, albeit from a spread look as opposed to the old school Pro-I, has fueled Northern Durham and even after taking their first loss in conference play last week to the Southern Durham Spartans still have an opportunity to snag a share of the conference crown with a victory over the Hornets this evening.
Hillside has been a dominating force throughout the year led by Georgia Tech recruit and recently named 2010 Shrine Bowl of the Carolinas invitee Vad Lee. The Hornet offense has been in many ways everything outsiders expected of a seasoned group; anchored by a strong offensive line they've rushed for almost 2500 yards on the year while punching it into the end zone roughly 38 times this year by way of the almighty rushing attack. Lee has spearheaded this effort with an impressive 16 rushing scores.
The Knights benefited from one of the tougher non-conference schedules in the area. Although their record was sub .500, based on what they had been able to do aside from the final scoreboard and a gutsy effort against then undefeated Wake Forest-Rolesville it seemed possible that the Knights were a team that could make some noise in a conference that had a lot of uncertainty aside from the Hornets. Northern grasped the opportunity and behind a consistent and productive rushing attack coupled with an outstanding rush defense and an opportunistic defense that scored four touchdowns in their five victories they've run to a 4-1 conference mark falling in a close battle last week to currently 5-1 Southern Durham.
One thing is clear, both the Hornets and Knights will be going to the post-season as automatic bids from the PAC-6. The only question is whether or not only one or both will be named conference champions. For the Hornets, a victory tonight would not only seize sole ownership of the PAC-6 crown, but they would have also swept all of the Durham area schools and be crowned the 2010 DFBFan Bull City Champion with a perfect 4-0 record against their city rivals. A victory for the Knights and they grab a share of the crown as well as allow Southern Durham to share the championship. Even more important to a Knight victory would be a bit of chaos to the playoff seeding as a random draw will be required to give Northern, Southern and Hillside their position within in conference from first to third [Selection Saturday (1 Week) - PAC-6 Playoff Picture & More].
This is the Game of the Week on the local radio [Hornets at Knights - Radio Game of the Week (11/5/2010)] and should be a great show for all to hear this evening. I know I can't wait...so let's get started.
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Hillside - (10 - 0 overall, 5 - 0 conference)
Wins - Grimsley (4A), George Washington Danville (Virginia, Division 5), South View (4A), E.E. Smith (4A), Dudley (4A), Southern Durham (4A), Person (4A), Jordan (4A), Riverside (4A), ECH (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 37 - 58 (0.39 WP); PF - 410, PA - 104
Losses - None
Strength of Schedule - 89 of 98 4A teams; (-12 from Week 6 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Dudley. The Panthers were ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll and considered by many to be a top contender for the state title. Ranked or not, they were dismantled in all aspects of the game. GT recruit Lee rushed for five touchdowns and added 141 yards through the air while the Hornet defense limited the Dudley offense to just over 100 yards of total offense. Sure, the Hornets have scored more, but there really wasn't any doubt from beginning to end and it was against the toughest opponent to date.
Honorable Mention - Southern Durham. The victory against the Spartans was not nearly as complete as their contest against Dudley, but they made numerous mistakes and survived to move forward and high-quality teams find ways to do that against high-quality competition.
Second Honorable Mention - East Chapel Hill. This may be one of the more complete games the Hornets have played this year and if they hadn't pulled their entire team going into the second half I have no doubt they would have shut out the Wildcats and quite possibly run and thrown for significant more yardage. They rambled for over 13 YPC on the ground and defensively complete shut-down East's rushing attack to minus five yards.
Best Loss - The one that hasn't occurred yet.
Northern Durham (5 - 5 overall, 4 - 1 conference)
Wins - Rocky Mount (3A), Person (4A), Jordan (4A), Riverside (4A), ECH (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 14 - 36 (0.28 WP); PF - 169, PA - 83
Losses - Middle Creek (4A), Greensboro Page (4A), Millbrook (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Southern Durham (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 35 - 16 (0.69 WP); PF - 71, PA - 128
Strength of Schedule - 66 of 98 4A teams; (+6 since Week 6 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Jordan. The Knights captured a victory against a five win Falcon squad that had previously only fallen to undefeated Panther Creek. The verdict is still out on how good the Falcons really are and thus how good the Knights are for taking them out, but regardless, for a team that won zero games in 2009, this is a big win that puts them in sole possession of first place in the conference after two weeks. The Knight rushing attack was clicking, galloping for 191 yards and a 5.2 YPC average. Defensively, the Knights did well, halting the Falcons for just 87 yards rushing at a paltry 3.1 YPC average.
Previously - Rocky Mount. Even with the victory against Person, the Rocky Mount win is still a better victory when you look at how the Knights played statistically. Rushing production was the only place where Northern did better than how they performed against Rocky Mount.
Best Loss - Wake Forest-Rolesville. The Cougars have dominated local area football for a few years now and there was little reason for folks outside of the Northern camp to expect a close affair between these two, but at home in newly renovated Durham County Stadium, the Knights played a spirited game eventually falling to currently 5-0 WFR, 26 to 29.
Also considered - Southern Durham. The Knights played strong defense until the Spartans took over in the fourth quarter with some timely runs and a strong late game passing effort led by quarterback Dorian Belcher. The Spartans are one of the tougher teams the Knights have faced this year and they carried a six point lead into the fourth quarter and were knocking on the door for a second score before things began to unravel. Depending on seeding and how the pod system works out the Spartans should make some noise in the playoffs and that is a good sign for the Knights even with the close loss.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - At this point in the season, both teams have played their entire PAC-6 slate and currently have five common opponents including their conference adversaries. Hillside is 5-0 in those games while the Knights are 4-1. The Hornets are averaging 37 PPG and yielding just over 11 per game. The Knights have managed just over 27 PPG and are giving up just over 16 per game. Both teams have rushed the ball well against the conference, but the Hornets have simply dominated at over 275 yards per game and a robust 7.1 YPC. The Knights have managed almost 200 YPG on the ground and are close to 5 YPC. Neither team has thrown the ball a ton in conference as both teams average less than 20 attempts a game, but the Hornets have put up almost 8 YPA to the Knights +4 YPA. Hillside is averaging 116 YPG to the Knights 79 through the air.
Defensively, both teams have been scary good - with the Knights allowing teams just 2.5 YPC and less than 75 yards per game rushing. Both teams have seen roughly the same number of attempts on the ground. The Hornets are right behind the Knights, giving up roughly 86 yards on the ground and 2.8 YPC. Advantage on the defensive side of the ball goes to the Hornets against the pass as they've given up just under 5 YPA to Northern's just over 6.5 YPA. The Knights are averaging roughly 179 yards to their opponents through the air while the Hornets have limited opposing passing attacks in conference to just under 130 per game.
The Hornets have scored 21 times on the ground in conference play to Northern's 10 scores. The Knight defense has helped the cause taking three scores back to the house to just one for the Hornets. Defensively, the Knights have given up nine total rushing and passing scores, while the Hornets have given up eight. Both teams have played even going into the half, the Hornets scoring roughly 22 heading into the intermission to Northern's 17 and defensively they've been outstanding (HHS - 8 and NHS - ~4).
Statistically Speaking - The Hornets have set the standard statistically in most categories this season and this is never more evident than when it comes to scoring and stopping the opposition from scoring. The Hornets rank first in both categories putting up 41 per game and allowing the opposition just over 10 per game. The Hornets have had two shut outs this year and another three games where they've allowed less than 10 a game. They've allowed just one team to go over 20 points. Offensively they've scored 33 points or more in every game but one, against Southern where they were held to just 13. The Knights are near the top as well, although the gap is rather large in raw numbers. They rank second in the conference in scoring at 24 per game, 17 behind league leading Hillside. Through their five victories they've put up close to 34 per game. The Knights defense is middle of the pack and allowing right about 21 per game.
The Hornet offense in many regards is a textbook on smash-mouth football accompanied by the strategically placed play-action assault. They rank first in the key offensive categories of average yards per carry and average yards per attempt. On the ground the Hornets are first in the league at roughly 247 YPG and a outstanding 6.6 YPC. They've tallied 161 yards or more in all 10 games so far this year and have gone over 200 yards rushing eight of the 10. They've gone over 300 yards in two of their games, just as incredible, they've averaged five yards per carry or more in every game this year. With defenses concentrating to stop the brutal rushing attack, the Hornets have systematically picked opposing teams a part through the air when the time was right. They are first in the league at 9.2 YPA while being dead last in the league in the number of attempts through the air at just under 18 per game. Yet they are still putting up a second best 164 YPG through the air, trailing only East Chapel Hill that arguably lives off the pass. We've previously discussed Hillside's effective usage of the pass and how their statistics support this discussion.
The Hillside defense has also been a thorn in teams side this year. They have rallied around their rush defense that is ranked first in the league and is allowing just over 100 yards a game and a strong 3.4 YPC. There have been few areas where one can say the Hornets have struggled, but through the air, teams have found the most success against their defense, they are middle of the conference, allowing over 140 yards per game and rank third at allowing 5.7 YPA. The Hornets have limited four teams to 100 yards or less rushing this year and allowed just one team to go over 200 yards rushing.
The Hornet scoring machine has preferred to punch it in on the ground putting up 38 rushing scores to 11 passing scores. They rank first in the rushing category and are middle of the pack in the passing category. But a closer look reveals that they are averaging 4.2 rushing touchdowns per game and the closest league foe is Jordan at 1.6 per game. In the pass department, they are putting up 1.2 per game with the conference leader, East Chapel Hill putting up just 1.9 per game. The Hornets have also scored once through special teams and their defense leads the conference with 0.44 scores per game. Defensively the Hornets have been lights-out good, number one in every category. They are allowing less than one touchdown per game on the ground and through the air and have yet to allow a special teams score or a score due to an offensive miscue.
The Knights have not been nearly has dominant offensively as the Hornets on the year, but there is definitely a divide between their games they've won and lost. For the season they are third in the league in yards rushing per game at roughly 146 and they are also third at yards per carry at 4.4. But in their victories they've faired much better averaging 187 YPG and close to 5 YPC. They've rushed for 161 yards or more in four of their five victories and gone over 100 yards rushing in all of their victories. When it comes to simply moving the ball through the air, the Knights have not fared well, they are last in the league at 112 YPG and just 5.3 YPA. They've been consistent in both their wins and losses, roughly throwing the ball about 20 times a game and their averages per attempt are roughly the same, they've seen a few more yards through the air in their losses.
Along with a strong rushing game, especially in their victories, their rushing defense has been one of the best in the league as they rank right behind the Hornets and are giving up just 3.8 YPC and roughly 127 YPG. In their five victories they have limited the opposition to only 68 YPG and an unbelievable 2.4 YPC. They've kept three of the five teams they've defeated under 100 yards rushing and have allowed 120 yards or less in all five games. Similar to the Hornets, the Knights pass defense has been more of a weakness. They rank near the bottom of the conference allowing over 140 yards a game and are sub-average at 6.4 YPA.
The Knights have been balanced in their end zone assault putting the ball in 15 times via the rush and 17 via the pass, that's good enough for third in league at 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game and second in the league at 1.7 passing scores a game. Although they have yet to score a special teams touchdown, their defense has risen to the occasion with four scores at 0.4 per game, good enough for second in the league, just behind the Hornets. Defensively, the Knights rush defense is third in the league giving up just 1.3 rushing scores per game and 1.1 passing scores. They've yielded two special teams scores and they have given the ball to the opposition's defense four times resulting in scores.
All Those Other Items
You could say this is one of those games where you throw everything out the window and just play, but history means something and when you look at these two teams over the course of the season what they have and have not accomplished is important to the DNA of what these teams should be tonight when they play. The Hornets came into the season believing not only that they would win the conference crown but that they would go further than any other team has gone in recent Hornet history in the post-season. In many respects they've shown that they are the team that fits the mold for doing just that and last week's crushing victory against East should have galvanized this squad to believe in what they can accomplish even more. For the Knights, although their coaching staff may have believed they could be where they are tonight, it's hard to imagine that the majority of the roster truthfully believed that fact. In the end, these are young men and experience and being there is so important to the equation, something that many of these young men have not experienced until the games of this year. You have to believe that for some of the Knights, although they believe they are one of the better teams in the conference, their loss last week to Southern has probably made them question whether or not they are conference championship good or simply a top three good type of team. One of those avenues is easy to get to the other will take a great effort tonight and only time will tell which one is chosen.
Both head coaches have been in critical conference championship type games at one point in their careers or another and you can bet they will both be ready to put forward their best effort. Coach Sullivan's biggest challenge will be to have his team begin and end the game in strong fashion. Hillside has struggled in most of their conference games in the first half and keeping the game close or being ahead will strengthen his squad through the middle part of the game. With the game close, finishing in a strong fashion and keeping his squad focused on the basics of tackling and blocking will be a key ingredient for a Knight victory. On the flip side, Coach King is all about statement games and so many can be made this evening. The Hornets are fueled by their head coaches confidence and whatever the game plan is for the Hornets - if they can meet their early game goals you can expect them to gain strength has the quarters push forward. This is a radio game where more than simply the Durham locals will hear the broadcast and you can bet that against their toughest competition since playing Southern to begin conference play the Hornets have every intention of not simply winning the game, but winning in convincing fashion.
Both defensive units have been especially helpful in making opposing teams' miscues deadly with multiple scores off of turnovers. Look for both to try to seize on any opportunities and change the momentum of the game. The Hornets may have the advantage in the fact that the Northern offense has been more susceptible to coughing the ball up for opposing defenses to make a play.
Both rush defenses have been outstanding and for the Knights if they can play with seven in the box and limit the Hornet rushing attack that will help against the play-action. But if the Knights are forced to cheat one safety and possibly two to limit the rush, the Hornets will be in prime position to capitalize with one-on-one coverage off of play-action, where a slight hesitation on the edges could be disaster for the Knights.
The Final Analysis
The Hornets look so strong in so many areas and after last week's convincing and dominating victory over East Chapel Hill I think the numbers speak even more strongly about who the Hornets are at this point in the season. Northern, lost a tough game last week, one that in many respects could have gone their way - point being that I don't think Southern is necessarily better than Northern, but I don't necessarily think the Knights are better than Southern, play 100 games and they may go 50-50. This is important because in many respects I thought earlier this year the Hornets dominated in their game against Southern, but because of penalties, red zone ineffectiveness and costly turnovers they kept a game that should not have been close - exactly that - close and almost a loss. That was a long time ago and I think Southern has improved as has Northern. For Hillside, they continued to struggle to some extent in the early portions of games but at least with last week's performance they look to have worked a few of those kinks out.
My gut tells me that this game may be decided early, not necessarily by the score, but by the attitudes of the players involved. If the Knights can play strong early and create the same atmosphere that the Hornets experienced against the Spartans earlier this year than I think we'll have a great game come the second half, but if the Hornets do what they like in the first few drives on both sides of the ball, then it could be a long night and that coronation will be solidly underway.
DFBFan's Pick - Hillside (5-0) at Northern Durham (4-1)
Hillside - 20
Northern Durham - 10
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