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| PHOTO BY MARK MCLOONE |
The Trojans have relied heavily on their traditional power running attack since their two game skid early in the year and have progressively improved in this category. The Caps have hit teams from their spread attack through the air as well as on the ground, posting +250 yard efforts through the air and on the ground in different contests.
The Trojan defense has been a steading force throughout the year and aside from a few games where opposing offenses inflicted above average damage through the air they've held their own and stopped the majority of their competition cold! The Caps haven't had nearly the same success as the Trojan defense in stopping the opposition and have found themselves in a number of games where they've given up large chunks of yardage through both the air and on the ground.
Broughton played in a top heavy conference with powerhouses Leesville Road and Wake Forest-Rolesville as well as Wakefield that put together another strong effort behind the play of quarterback Connor Mitch and their spread passing attack. The Trojans found the going somewhat more manageable in a Greater Neuse Conference that suffered from mostly average play throughout their ranks, aside from the Bulldogs of Southeast Raleigh that ended up taking second place and lost to the Trojans in a relatively close affair back in October.
Garner enters the playoff season as the #3 overall seed and second highest seed in the East Pod of the 4AA bracket, while Broughton received a #15 overall seed and the second lowest seed in the East Pod. The winner of this game will move on to play the winner of the Middle Creek at Leesville Road contest. With that...let's get started.
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Broughton - (6 - 5 overall, 3 - 3 conference)
Wins - Garner (4A), Athens Drive (4A), Terry Sanford (4A), Millbrook (4A), Enloe (4A), Sanderson (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 29 - 37 (0.44 WP); PF - 235, PA - 120
Losses - Cary (4A), Jack Britt (4A), Leesville Road (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Wakefield (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 47 - 8 (0.85 WP); PF - 133, PA - 187
Strength of Schedule - 4 of 98 4A teams; (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Enloe. The Caps dominated on both sides of the ball in this contest notching top performances in almost every statistical category against the Eagles. The Caps put up 386 yards rushing from their spread look for an astonishing 9.7 YPC and complemented this with 293 yards through the air for over 10 YPA. The defense responded as well, halting the Eagle rushing attack to less than 3.5 YPC and allowing just 55 yards through the air for a paltry 3.2 YPA. The Caps tallied six scores through the air against the Eagles, while allowing just one score.
Best Loss - Leesville Road. Against one of the top teams in the area the Caps put together one of their better performances. Trailing by 18 at halftime, the Caps outscored the Pride 25 to 15 in the second half and put together a balanced offensive attack that netted just over 5 YPC and just under 6 YPA. Defensively the Caps held the Pride to just over 5 YPC, but were hurt in the end by big performances by the Pride aerial attack that averaged over 14 YPA.
Garner - (9 - 2 overall, 7 - 0 conference)
Wins - Middle Creek (4A), Riverside (4A), West Johnston (4A), Clayton (4A), Knightdale (4A), Smithfield-Selma (4A), Southeast Raleigh (4A), East Wake (4A), Harnett Central (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 40 - 59 (0.40 WP); PF - 372, PA - 50
Losses - Millbrook (4A), Broughton (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 13 - 9 (0.59 WP); PF - 20, PA - 24
Strength of Schedule - 69 of 98 4A teams; (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Southeast Raleigh. Against their toughest conference foe and one of the better teams in the area, the Trojans found themselves down by three at the intermission and battled back to shut-out the Bulldogs in the second half while marching to a 21 to 10 victory and positioning themselves to claim the GNR title. The Trojan offense rushed for 350 yards at a robust 7.3 YPC, while their defense limited the Bulldog rushing attack to less than 5 YPC on the ground.
Best Loss - Millbrook. Defense, defense, defense. Even though the Trojan offense struggled in this game, only managing 2.6 YPC on the ground, their defense came to play allowing the Wildcats just 2.4 YPC. Top that off with a great effort from their pass defense which allowed Millbrook just 2.2 YPA and it's hard to understand why the Trojans came out on the losing end of this game.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - First and foremost - they played each other in the second week of the year. Additionally, they both played Millbrook. First, Millbrook. It's tough to get a great bearing on the Trojans in this 3-0 loss because it was their first game and so much changed for them. On the flip side, the Caps played the Brook in conference play. The Cap offense put up over 7 YPC more in the running game compared to the Trojans, but just over 1.5 YPA more in the passing game. Defensively, the Trojans allowed roughly 5 YPC less than the Caps defense and almost 10 YPA less than the Caps. In this direct comparison the Caps had the advantage offensively, but play the game again at this point and I highly doubt the differential between the Trojans rushing numbers and the Caps would be as great. Defensively, the Trojans have continued to play lights out and there is no doubt a clear advantage exists on that side of the ball for Garner.
In their head-to-head contest, the Trojans continued to have trouble running the ball, but did well in the passing game tallying almost 9 YPA on the Cap defense. The Broughton offense had its own troubles, even in victory, managing only 1.5 YPC on the ground, while putting up a respectable 7 YPA through the air. Both teams scored twice offensively, while the Trojans added a defensive score and the Caps added a special teams score. They were tied at 14 at the intermission and the difference was one point. Pretty even in many respects scoring wise, but the numbers don't lie and the Trojan defense has been consistently good. Head-to-head or not, the Trojans have the advantage from these common opponents.
Statistically Speaking - Broughton has managed to do two things well this year - score points and have other teams score points on them. They are averaging just over 33 points a game and are allowing almost 28 points a game. In their six wins they've scored almost 40 points a game, but still given up almost three touchdowns a game. In their losses, they are still putting up roughly 27 a game, but are giving up almost 18 more a game than in their victories at over 37 a game. The Trojans are putting up almost 36 a game on the year and allowing an incredible minuscule 6.7 per game! They have had only 74 points scored on them all year and only 50 in their last nine games. During their nine game winning streak they've put up just over 41 a game and allowed just 5.6 per game. They've had four shut-outs in those wins and four additional games where they allowed 10 or less points. In fact, in their 11 games they've allowed 10 or fewer points in every game with the exception of the Brougton and Middle Creek games (21 and 16 respectively).
Broughton's spread offense is not a one dimensional pony and they've shown throughout the year that they can hurt opposing defenses on the ground and through the air. On the year they are averaging roughly 118 yards per game on the ground at a respectable 4.7 YPC. Through the air they've managed about 239 yards per game at just under 8 YPA. On the ground they've done much better on average in their victories where they've run for roughly 4 YPC more, but their passing numbers have been steady, with only a slightly better on average performance in their wins as compared to their losses. They have +250 yard performances on the ground against multiple opponents, while throwing for 200 or more yards in at least five of their contests including a remarkable 566 yards in their conference game against Wakefield.
Defensively, the Caps have taken it on the chin a bit. They are giving up 209 yards a game rushing at just over 5 yard per carry clip and have fared just a bit better through the air, giving up roughly 165 yards per game at right about 8.6 YPA. The Caps have been not quite as good defensively in their losses compared to their wins statistically, but the numbers are not drastically different when you look at the averages, 5 YPC to 5.2 YPC in the run department and 8 YPA to 9.4 YPA in the pass category. They've allowed roughly 60 more yards a game rushing in their losses, but just under 20 more a game through the air. In their losses, they've allowed every opponent to run for 158 yards or more, including 297 yards and 333 yards against Cary and Jack Britt, respectively. Through the air, they've allowed large numbers in both their wins and losses, as well as lows on both sides.
The Cap offense has scored most frequently through the air with 29 scores for roughly 2.6 a game. They've complemented that with 13 on the ground and three special teams scores. Their defense has also played big, picking up four additional scores. Defensively, teams are scoring roughly two touchdowns a game on the ground against the Caps and have 17 scores through the air on the Broughton defense. They've also given up one special teams score and their offense has given up two additional scores due to miscues.
The Trojans on offense have been two different teams - first two games and everything since. In their first two games, both losses, they averaged just 2.3 YPC on the ground and 84 yards per game rushing. Over the last nine they are averaging a stout 6.8 YPC and almost 264 yards per game. For the year they are rolling to almost 6 YPC and 231 yards per game. They've rushed for 2541 yards on the year. Since having sub-100 yard rushing games in both of their first two contests they've run for 157 or more yards in every game since. They have seven 200 or more yards games this year and four 300 or more yard games on the ground including their last three conference games against Southeast Raleigh (350), East Wake (322) and Harnett Central (333). Can we say - that's old school Garner football! The Trojans have added almost 1000 yards of offense this year through the passing game, averaging roughly 84 yards per game and 8.6 YPA. In their nine victories they are averaging 9.4 YPA.
If the offense for the Trojans looks to be on track, then the Trojan defense is an experienced well-oiled machine. On the year they are giving up just 93 yards per game on the ground for just 3.1 YPC. They've limited seven of their competitors to less that 100 yards rushing and no team has rushed for over 200 yards on the Trojans this year. The best rushing performance by average this year against the Trojan defense was Southeast Raleigh that managed 4.9 per carry and 162 total rushing yards. The pass defense hasn't been too bad either, limiting the opposition to 115 yards per game and 4.9 YPA. In the victories they are giving up 113 YPG and 4.8 YPA. Aside from the Middle Creek (371) and Broughton (214) games they've limited the opposition to under 200 yards passing.
The Trojan offense has used the highway to score, punching it in 31 times on the ground for 2.8 per game and they've complemented that attack with 12 scores through the air, four by special teams and four by their defense. Their defensive numbers are staggering - they've allowed just two rushing scores on the entire year for a 0.2 rushing touchdown per game average! Six additional scores have occurred through the air with one additional score via special teams. In total, Garner has allowed only nine total touchdowns on the year.
All Those Other Items
One of the biggest points to this game is that the first game when you look at the year as a whole only means so much. The biggest difference is the rush attack that Broughton will see this time around and it's not going to be good news for the Cap defense. The Caps appear in many ways to be fairly similar to the team that played so many weeks ago, which means an offense that has the potential to score against anyone, but a defense that also has the potential to let almost everyone else score as well. On the flip side, the Trojan defense looks to be the same as it was early in the year and that isn't good for any team as they have been suffocating in all regards. The one big difference is the resurgence of the Trojan rushing attack that should wreak havoc on a Broughton rush defense that is already giving up 5 YPC no matter how you slice it.
Familiarity is important and these teams know each other - the Trojan staff is filled with experience, while the Caps are a relatively speaking younger group that since taking over has always been filled with enthusiasm and high energy directed at having the Caps ready to play in every game they step on the field. Both teams will be ready to go for this one, with the Trojans respecting their competition and the Caps understanding that a win earlier in the year doesn't guarantee one in the first round of the playoffs.
The Caps have played tougher competition on the whole throughout the year and you have to put some stock in this element, although, this only matters if from the initial snap, on, the Caps play with a highly physical nature, something they saw both in a rugged non-conference schedule that saw them play physical teams in Cary, Terry Sanford and Jack Britt as well as in conference play. Concluding the year, the Caps schedule was ranked fourth in 4A ball in strength and the five teams they lost to has no more than two losses each. The Trojans have been riding high with arguably their toughest competition since their win over Middle Creek in week three of the season being a recent show down with Southeast Raleigh and you have to wonder if they get hit in the face early how they'll respond.
The Final Analysis
The Caps have shown throughout the year, as well as, over recent memory that they can be a quick-strike squad and no matter how the Trojan offense dictates the pace of the game - a quick-strike is exactly that - quick. A long Trojan drive capped off by a score followed shortly thereafter by a quick Broughton score equals the momentum, whether the Trojans are dominating time of possession or not and this will be important as the game wears on, if the Trojans aren't stopped - can the Caps respond consistently.
The Trojan defense is phenomenal and I expect to see nothing less tonight. On the flip side the Caps have struggled to stop teams and this Garner rushing squad is very different than the one they saw so many weeks ago.
This game will probably play out in one of two ways. If the Trojans move the ball as effectively as they have for so long and their defense plays like they have throughout the year then they will score and the question will be whether or not the Caps can pick up those quick-strikes that even the game back out. Too many non-scoring drives for the Caps could lead to a lopsided affair. The Caps have had some solid games this year, but tonight they face one of their tougher opponents and for them the 2010 season ends in Trojan Stadium.
DFBFan's Pick - Broughton (6-5) at Garner (9-2)
Garner - 30
Broughton - 17
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