 |
| PHOTO BY RAY BLACK III |
The New Bern Bears aren't simply another 13-0 team, they are the 2007 4AA State Champions and have a number of championship game appearances prior to go along with the resume. Coach Curlings has successfully continued what Coach Chip Williams had going along the Neuse River and has amplified it to the next level with the 2007 crown.
The time is approaching so there is no time to waste...so let's get started!
Where They Stand Entering the Game
New Bern (13 - 0 overall, 5 - 0 conference)
Wins - Havelock (3A), West Craven (3A), Bertie (2A), Northside Jacksonville (2A), Sanderson (4A), New Hanover (4A), Hoggard (4A), Ashley (4A), Laney (4A), J.H. Rose (4A) [regular season], J.H. Rose (4A) [Playoffs], Clayton (4A), Southeast Raleigh (4A); PF - 513, PA - 159
Losses - None
Strength of Schedule - 86 of 98 4A teams (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - J.H. Rose, the second time around. We've talked about this before, it's always tough to be the team that has to play another team twice in the same year if you beat them the first time around, especially if it was close. The team that lost has a lot of the perceived momentum and the reality is that perhaps they were better than you the first go around and you got lucky. The other issue potentially is that you think you are better than you are and go in unprepared the second time around. New Bern had the unenviable task of ending the regular season against arch-rival Rose and then having to turn around in the first round and play them again. They did it and they ended up getting the win and even though the score was closer on paper in almost every statistical category the Bears played a better game than the week prior.
Best Loss - no losses equal no best loss.
Hillside - (14 - 0 overall, 6 - 0 conference)
Wins - Grimsley (4A), George Washington Danville (Virginia, Division 5), South View (4A), E.E. Smith (4A), Dudley (4A), Southern Durham (4A), Person (4A), Jordan (4A), Riverside (4A), ECH (4A), Northern Durham (4A), Southeast Guilford (4A), Purnell Swett (4A), Lee County (4A); PF - 589, PA - 145
Losses - None
Strength of Schedule - 90 of 98 4A teams (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Dudley. The Panthers were ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll and considered by many to be a top contender for the state title. Ranked or not, they were dismantled in all aspects of the game. GT recruit Lee rushed for five touchdowns and added 141 yards through the air while the Hornet defense limited the Dudley offense to just over 100 yards of total offense. Sure, the Hornets have scored more, but there really wasn't any doubt from beginning to end and it was against the toughest opponent to date.
Honorable Mention - Southern Durham. The victory against the Spartans was not nearly as complete as their contest against Dudley, but they made numerous mistakes and survived to move forward and high-quality teams find ways to do that against high-quality competition.
Second Honorable Mention - East Chapel Hill. This may be one of the more complete games the Hornets have played this year and if they hadn't pulled their entire team going into the second half I have no doubt they would have shut out the Wildcats and quite possibly run and thrown for significant more yardage. They rambled for over 13 YPC on the ground and defensively complete shut-down East's rushing attack to minus five yards.
Best Loss - The one that hasn't occurred yet.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - I suppose it's no surprise that two teams that are roughly three hours apart by highway have no common opponents on the year, but that's still a bit of a shame when you begin to look at the high quality of both teams. Having a team to benchmark them against would be nice. The closest situation that exists is that Hillside played Southern Durham and won a close game, while New Bern played New Hanover and Southeast Raleigh, both teams that Southern Durham played in the playoffs. New Bern knocked off both teams handily, while Southern Durham took care of business against New Hanover in a close one, while getting stomped by Southeast Raleigh two weeks ago. On the surface and with significant hand-waving, the edge in this somewhat convoluted approach goes to the Bears, although I would suggest not putting too much stock into that statement - as I'm not.
Statistically Speaking - New Bern is no slouch! They are averaging 39.5 points per game and allowing just over 12 points a game. They have racked up 513 points this year, which includes 22 or more points in every game this year. They've put up 30 or more points in 11 of their 13 games and 40 or more points in seven of their 13 games. Let me say that one more time, they've scored 40 or more points in over half of their games! Defensively, they have shut out two teams and limited three other teams to seven or fewer points. Only two teams have scored 20 or more points on them and the most that anyone as scored on them was 22 (New Hanover and J.H. Rose). The Hornets aren't undefeated simply because the opposition decided to take the night off - they are putting up over 42 points per game and limiting the opposition to just over 10 points a game. That is a total of 589 points on the year with double digits in all 14 contests. They've scored 33 points or more in all but one game (13 against Southern Durham). They've scored 40 or more points in 10 of their 14 games and notched 50 or more in two games. Impressive...ya, I would say that would be accurate. On the defensive side of the ball the Hornets have shut out three teams and limited an additional four to eight points or less. They've had two teams score 20 or more on them (Lee County - 22 and Person - 23).
In our RDU-EXP Breakdown of the Panther Creek and Wake Forest-Rolesville game we talked about the Catamounts as one of the more balanced teams in the area, well, enter New Bern. If Panther Creek is balanced, then the Bears are uber-balanced! They have rushed for 2320 yards on the ground this year and 2282 through the air. That puts them at roughly 193 YPG on the ground and 190 YPG through the air. They are rushing on average for 5.6 YPC and have been very efficient through the air at 9.7 YPA. They have rushed for 100 yards or more in every game this year and over 200 yards per game in six of their 13 games. Through the air, they've managed to break 100 yards in 12 of 13 games and gone over 200 yards in six of 13. This is an offense that can move the ball without question.
Defensively, the Bears in the past under Coach Chip Williams (currently the head coach at Scotland County) were known for the type of hard-nosed defensive play indicative of the Pittsburgh Steelers. They would knock you in your face, pick you up in whatever shape you were in and come back the next down to brutalize you again with the same methodical determination and severity. Things haven't changed much under Coach Curlings and his Bears are still knocking folks in the face! They are allowing under 100 yards per game rushing and passing (97 YPG rushing and 92 YPG passing). The front eight of the Bears present a strong front against the rush, allowing the opposition just around 3.4 YPC and just over 5 YPA through the air. Six of their opponents have managed to rush for 100 or more yards on the year, but no one has gone for over 200. Through the air, five teams have managed at least 100 yards, while two have thrown for over 200 against the Bears.
New Bern is balanced when it comes to punching it into the end zone, but maybe even more telling is they are also prolific. They have managed over 36 rushing scores this year and over 29 passing scores. That amounts to roughly three rushing touchdowns per game and almost 2.5 passing scores per game. Not to be out-done, they have grabbed three additional scores through special teams and the defense has added two more scores. Defensively the Bears have allowed just 20 scores this year. They are allowing just over one rushing score per game and a paltry 0.38 passing scores per game. Their special teams have allowed two scores and the offense has given up one additional score.
After reading that, you may be getting the impression that tonight's game might not be what we would call a positive for the Hornets, but that would only be because you've only seen the Bears in action and haven't read about the Hornets yet. Word up - the Hornets are studs as well! Offensively, if the Bears were balanced, the Hornets are dominating. They have rushed for a staggering 3402 yards this year and passed for 2555 yards. On average they are rolling teams for 243 YPG on the ground and 183 YPG through the air. That amounts to a robust 6.5 YPC and 9.8 YPA - I'll let you think about that for a while. I'm still thinking about it and what I'm thinking is that makes you very good. They have rushed for 100 yards in every game this year (that was a given) and 200 yards or more in 10 of their 14 games. They've gone over 300 yards in three of their games. Through the air they've gone over 100 yards in every game but two, against Jordan and Riverside, but when you consider that they rushed for over 300 yards in both games, you kinda have to wonder why you would want to throw it anyways. They've passed for 200 or more yards in four of their games and over 300 in two.
The Bears defense is good, actually very good, but the Hornets might be even better. They are giving up just 96 YPG on the ground at a paltry 3.1 YPC and exactly 117 YPG through the air for an average of 5.5 YPA. They've held six of their opponents to 100 or fewer yards on the ground and had just one team, George Washington Danville out of Virginia go for over 200 on them. Through the air, they've held five of their opponents to 100 or fewer yards, while allowing only East Chapel Hill and Lee County to go for 200 or more.
When it comes to hitting the end zone the numbers for the Hornets are for lack of a better word, impressive. They have posted at least 55 rushing scores on the year, that amounts to roughly 4.2 rushing scores per game and they have augmented that effort with 19 additional passing scores or close to 1.5 passing scores a game. They've picked up at least one special teams score and the defense has gotten into the act as well, posting four additional scores. Defensively the Hornets may give up some yards, but they put up the walls when you get close as they have given up just 18 scores and are allowing roughly 0.6 rushing scores per game and 0.8 passing scores per game. They have also given up one special team score on the year.
All Those Other Items
One of the first things that comes to mind when I think about this game is the long trip that New Bern has to make for this game and Hillside doesn't. Routines matter, even to very good teams, and for the Bears they will have to play a high caliber type of play tonight in spite of all of the inconveniences of what goes into a trip that is not the norm. For the Hornets, it's business as usual, go to school, go to the team meal, have meetings, get dressed, go play ball. At this stage in the playoffs you might say that this shouldn't matter, but remember these aren't professionals, so it will matter, how much you ask - well not a ton, but it's simply something that the Bears will have to deal with and the Hornets are exempt from for tonight.
Athletes Here, Get Your Athletes! That should be the title of tonight's game, I can see someone outside the gate exclaiming this and part of the reason both of these teams are scoring so much and knocking folks down defensively is that both are loaded with college level talent. Both coaching staffs will be looking for the mismatches tonight and trying to exploit one athlete against another and certain fundamental elements like angle of pursuit will be critically important with so much speed on the field. This game should be everything you wished for in terms of physicality, speed, agility and toughness. If you don't come to play from the initial snap with all of those elements you're in trouble.
In a game with so much talent, the little things are going to matter even that much more. If you stop a talented athlete once, you don't want to give them a second chance, which means that penalties are going to be huge tonight. Giving one of these teams a second chance is like spinning the bottle a second time when the bottle can only land on you or one other person and believe me you don't want to get kissed!
In my opinion, Hillside quarterback Vad Lee is the top quarterback in this area from a high school perspective and high level college potential perspective (although Kam Bryant over at Panther Creek is right there as a high school QB). In many ways, how Vad goes, so goes the Hornets. If he is rocking it on the ground and through the air, then the Bears are making a long bus ride back to the Neuse River. If he is doing one or the other, then the Hornets are still in a solid position, but if he struggles to find a groove then others will have to step up and that could make advancing to the state finals difficult. Lucky for the Hornets they have one of the most dominating offensive lines in the state. Sure, they have quality running backs and a super-stud in Lee that can run the Pistol spread and zone package better than most, but never forget those big-ole hogs that make the one way street into a super slab-way of five lanes! If they can impose their will on the New Bern front seven or eight, it will be a long night for the Bears.
Experience in many ways is a part of both of these teams. Hillside played in this same game in 2008 and New Bern took home the state championship in 2007 in Coach Curlings first year as head coach after taking over for legendary Chip Williams. Both of these teams know how to win and how to win big and you can expect them to play with that confidence tonight.
The Final Analysis
In many ways I think that this game is a tougher pick than the other big game going on in the area between Panther Creek and Wake Forest-Rolesville - a game that I have the Catamounts winning by nine. Both of these teams play a high caliber offense that's similar to Panther Creek and can therefore play within any situation a game may bring forth. Similarly, both teams have been dominating offensively, leaving few times where they have been tested in crunch time. They've had their way in almost every game from the get-go and although some of the competition has tried to mount a comeback, in the end the strongest prevailed and prevailed in lopsided fashion. Defensively, both teams bring it and they have speed and intensity within the ranks that makes both squads especially dangerous. From an experience perspective, they both have a strong history, although the edge in this area may go to the Hornets, if only because many of the current seniors played in that oh-so controversial Byrd contest a few years back, something that still resonates with this contingent. Where do you go when so much seems to be even...
Sure, the drive and travel are there and that is something that New Bern will have to overcome, but penalties and costly turnovers have hampered the Hornets on occasion this year and that could be a stumbling block tonight.
Honestly, I think the script for tonight is actually pretty simple. The answer is inherent in what each of these teams have learned throughout the season about being a team and understanding that their success is based on many small, but important factors put together in unison to create two juggernauts. If either of these two teams missed that part of the message and got caught up in the trivial; we're undefeated, we score a ton of points, we don't give up any, blah, blah and more blah as opposed to we are undefeated because we block well, we tackle well, we play smart and oh by the way we are also athletic and that simply is showcased even more because of all those little things we do so well, then that team may have issues tonight. If they missed that memo and the other team didn't, then in that you have your winner for the evening. Understanding why you are good is even more important than being good, because it gives you a logical, repeatable and methodical template of how to keep doing it - even when you play another team that is also very good and might put you in the hole early. If you understand who you are, then being in a tough situation becomes easier to get out of because of that understanding. There is no reason to believe that this game will be anything but a monumental high-paced battle and momentum will swing back and forth throughout the night. The team that continues to remember what has made them great to this point will be able when the momentum is not on their side to rebound and take it back and that will be your winner.
DFBFan's Pick - New Bern (13-0) visits Hillside (14-0)
Hillside - 27
New Bern - 24
No comments:
Post a Comment