The Hornets are coming off a bye week where one can only assume that all those little things that Coach King and staff had noticed throughout the beginning of the year that held the Hornets back just a bit were focused on with a fine tooth comb. Undefeated and with a win against a tough Southern Durham team to their resume, they have five games remaining in conference to show the state they are one of the top teams not only in Durham and the RDU, but North Carolina. On the other sideline, the Rockets are struggling, they opened the season with a win against 3A Oxford Webb and since have hit one pothole and roadblock after another to falter to a 1-5 start and 0-2 in conference play. The transition to a new head coach and system have slowed the Rockets in 2010, but anyone that has been associated with PAC-6 play knows that Person is more often than not big with a few athletes peppered across the field. Add in the fact that they always play tough up at The Rock where nightly temperatures usually dip 5 to 10 degrees below what those in Durham see on the same night and you have the makings of home field advantage.
A number of questions exist as these teams enter Friday night's contest. Is Hillside the dominant team most have thought, even after a tough go against a winless Spartan squad? Can the Hornet offense rebound to move the ball and put up points in the red zone? Can the Rockets right a ship that has steadily been taking on water since week one of their season? Will The Rock be the home field advantage the Rockets need to steal a victory on Friday night and get themselves back into the conference race?
It's another week of PAC-6 play...so let's get started!
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Hillside - (6 - 0 overall, 1 - 0 conference)
Wins - Grimsley (4A), George Washington Danville (Virginia, Division 5), South View (4A), E.E. Smith (4A), Dudley (4A), Southern Durham (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 19 - 24; PF - 238, PA - 59
Losses - None
Strength of Schedule - 35 of 98 4A teams; (+3 from Week 1 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Dudley. The Panthers were ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll and considered by many to be a top contender for the state title. Ranked or not, they were dismantled in all aspects of the game. GT recruit Lee rushed for five touchdowns and added 141 yards through the air while the Hornet defense limited the Dudley offense to just over 100 yards of total offense. Sure, the Hornets have scored more, but there really wasn't any doubt from beginning to end and it was against the toughest opponent to date.
Southern Durham. The victory against the Spartans was not nearly as complete as their contest against Dudley, but they made numerous mistakes and survived to move forward and high-quality teams find ways to do that against high-quality competition.
Best Loss - The one that hasn't occurred yet.
Person (Roxboro) (1 - 5 overall, 0 - 2 conference)
Wins - Oxford Webb (3A); Record of Teams Combined - 3 - 3; PF - 21, PA - 0
Losses - George Washington Danville (Virginia Division 5), Halifax (Virginia Division 5), Ragsdale (4A), Northern Durham (4A), Southern Durham (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 14 - 19; PF - 41, PA - 173
Strength of Schedule - 44 of 98 teams; (+5 from Week 2 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Oxford Webb. I don't know if you can necessarily call this a best win, but since only one exists, I'll be kind. What you can take from this is that Person under the new leadership of Coach Geary, (Cedar Ridge's head coach for many years prior), can win and have experienced winning under the new captain. But from that point forward things have been tough going.
Best Loss - Halifax County, VA. First, the Rockets fell short by less than a touchdown. Second, the Rockets started somewhat strong in this game leading at halftime, 9-7, before giving up a 3rd quarter score. But, Halifax has gone on to a 1-3 record with their closest loss being 20 points to North Stafford (VA).
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - The Hornets and Rockets have two common opponents this season in Southern Durham and George Washington Danville out of Virginia. The Hornets notched two victories in those contests, while the Rockets lost both games and were outscored, 12 to 80. Against Danville, the Hornets accumulated over 150 yards in both the rushing and passing categories, while Person was held below the 100 yard mark in rushing but compensated with over 200 yards through the air. In both categories, the Hornets put up a higher number of yards per attempt, including in the passing category where Hillside tallied over 11 YPA compared to Person's 8 YPA. Defensively, the Hornets had one of their worst games statistically giving up close to 6 YPC and over 7 YPA. Person faltered as well against the Eagle rushing attack giving up a hefty 9 YPC. Reviewing the game it was clear the Eagles had no need to throw the ball against the Rockets and as such their numbers look like a positive for the Person pass defense, but in fact are simply a by-product of a game that got away from the Rockets early.
Against the Spartans, the Rockets were only able to muster a total of 165 yards combined rushing and passing, while the Hornets put up over 350 combined yards. Defensively for the Rockets, the Spartan attack struck fast and often against the Rockets as they tallied 264 yards on the ground to go with 160 through the air. The Hornet defense proved to be more stingy against the athletic Spartans giving up 157 yards rushing and 60 yards passing. When you look at the Hornet's defense against the Spartans the numbers are even more impressive when you note that 80 of the 157 yards rushing came on a single long run by Judd and close to half of the passing yards came on a double-pass late in the game.
Statistically Speaking - The statistics don't lie, this is a game of two very different ball clubs. The Hornets have scored 238 points over six games for close to a 40 points per game average, while yielding only 59 total points for just under 10 points per game. Person has found the end zone to be a zip code not easily found as they have scored just 41 total points over six games while giving up 173.
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FIGURE 1 (COURTESY OF THE DFBFan) |
The Hornets continue to be one of the more balanced offensive teams in the PAC-6 accumulating 1286 yards on the ground to 1213 through the air this season. The Hornets are running the ball approximately 63% of the time and averaging just under 36 rushes per game. They continue to pick up healthy chunks of yards in both categories with a gaudy 6 YPC and 9.6 YPA. On the ground the Hornets have been consistent, averaging roughly 214 yards a game with a low against GW Danville for 161 yards and a high against Greensboro Grimsley for roughly 260 yards. Their worst YPC game came against Danville where they still put forth 4.9 YPC. Through the air they are averaging just over 202 YPG. They threw for a season high of 308 yards against Grimsley and were slowed against Dudley for only 141 yards where they also experienced a low of 6.7 YPA. Figure 1 provides a comparison of offensive yardage production for the Hornets in comparison to the Rockets.
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FIGURE 2 (COURTESY OF THE DFBFan) |
Defensively the Hornets have allowed approximately 227 yards of total offense per game (126 rushing/101 passing). The rush defense has been strong allowing 4 YPC; with three games of sub-4 YPC ball including a stellar 1.5 YPC effort against the Dudley Panthers. The Hornet secondary and pass defense has not been as strong so far this season allowing almost 7 YPA, but put together their best effort of the year in their opening conference tilt with Southern where they allowed the Spartans just 4.3 YPA. This average would have been more impressive if not for a late bit of trickeration by the Southern offense via a double pass that resulted in the potentially tying/go-ahead score. Figure 2 provides a comparison of yards allowed by the Hornet defense to the Rocket defense.
The Hornets have scored 29 total touchdowns this year. The majority of those scores have come from a strong rushing attack led by running back China and quarterback Lee. Figure 3 provides a breakdown of how the Hornets have placed the ball in the end zone. The Hornets have scored 66% of their touchdowns on the ground to 21% through the air. The Hornet defense has been exceptional allowing less than a touchdown through the air or on the ground each game. Moreover, Hillside has yet to allow a score off of special teams and their offense hasn't yielded a score over six games. Figure 4 provides a breakdown of how the opposition has scored their touchdowns against the Hornets over the 2010 season.
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FIGURE 3 (COURTESY OF THE DFBFan) |
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FIGURE 4 (COURTESY OF THE DFBFan) |
The Person offense has struggled throughout the year to gain traction in either the running or passing game. Aside from two above average performances early in the year against GW Danville and Halifax County where the Rockets were able to put up over 200 yards through the air with roughly 8+ YPA; yardage in any form has been tough to come by. In the rushing department, the Rockets have rushed for less than 100 yards in four of their six games and had a high against Oxford Webb with 127 yards on 28 carries. Person has been able to muster just over 3 YPC and roughly 6.5 YPA through the air. In total the Rockets have put together 1362 total yards of offense, compared to Hillside's 2499 total yards.
Figure 1 provides a comparison of offensive yardage production for the Rockets in comparison to the Hornets.
Defensively, things haven't gone that much better for the Rockets. Their rush defense is giving up roughly 208 yards a game and if you take the Oxford Webb game out of the equation for pass defense (Webb attempted only 2 passes), they are giving up roughly 85 yards through the air. A caveat to their pass defense numbers is the fact that opponents have rushed for 200 yards or more in 4 of the 6 games they've played and for 150 or more in all six games. In a number of those games the opponent had 10 or less attempts throwing the ball, indicating quite possibly that the opponent's strategy due to their own strengths were to run as opposed to pass. Figure 2 provides a comparison of yards allowed by the Rocket defense to the Hornet defense.
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FIGURE 5 (COURTESY OF THE DFBFan) |
Reaching the end zone has been tough for the Rockets as they have accumulated in six games just nine total touchdowns, including one defensive score. Person has been balanced with four rushing and four passing scores. Figure 5 provides a breakdown of Person's scoring by touchdown this season. Defensively the opposition has primarily exploited the rush defense of the Rockets scoring 13 times on the ground to three times through the air. Person has also given up one score through special teams and one by offensive turnover. Figure 6 provides a breakdown of how the opposition has scored touchdowns against the Rockets in 2010.
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FIGURE 6 (COURTESY OF THE DFBFan) |
All Those Other Items
It seems that no matter how well coaches prepare their teams for the bye-week, it isn't until that first whistle blows and the first play is over that you have a firm feeling that the guys will either be on their mark or off a step and for Hillside that will be one of the big questions going into Friday night's game. The Hornets have to make the not-so short drive up Roxboro Road to play this game and how that adds into the mix will also play some part in the game's outcome. Yes, the temperature, I haven't forgotten. Spectators, bundle thy-selves up as fall weather has hit the piedmont over the past week and the forecast is looking to be a bit chilly come Friday evening. And if you are checking the Durham forecast, subtract 10 degrees (Fahrenheit for those that wants specifics) and you'll be about right for a crisp Roxboro night at The Rock. Rust, non-trivial travel and cool temps maybe the only things the Rockets have on their side come Friday night.
The Hornets are allowing just four points heading into the half, while the Rocket have given up on average 17 points prior to halftime. Just over half of Hillside's points have been put on the board prior to the half at just under 25 per game, while the Rockets have struggled and walked into the locker room with just 7 points on average. All these numbers speak to the outcome and overall make-up of the game being decided early.
The Hornets struggled against Southern with penalties and red zone production and Georgia Tech recruit Lee had three turnovers in the game, including a costly fumble late that set the Spartans up to make their comeback before eventually falling on a failed two-point conversion.
The Final Analysis
Person is struggling and Hillside believe it or not has something to prove to the rest of the PAC-6. Put those two things together and rust, travel and weather can't stop the swarm that is coming to town. The Hillside offense has simply been spectacular this year in both their balance and big play capabilities. Overall their prime-time players have shined when the pressure has been on them and you would expect nothing less coming off a bye week where Coach King and staff worked on fine tuning all the little things. Defensively, the Hornets have been solid, facing an above average group of opponents they've pitched a shutout, had two additional games giving up less than 10 and had five of six games where they gave up 13 or fewer points.
The question for the Rockets is can they bounce back from a crushing defeat against an athletic Spartan squad and compete against a squad just as athletic and bigger than the squad they faced a week ago. Person will have to play mistake free ball and find either a running or passing game that has mostly eluded them throughout the year. They'll need the Hornets to duplicate what they did against Southern with costly penalties, turnovers and poor red zone production, all things that seem less likely than hitting the Pick Six.
The Hornets will look to dominate in the rushing game while hitting the Rockets aggressively through the air to highlight Lee's abilities. Look for the running back by committee led by China and Lee to post four scores on the ground while the Hornet Air Attack picks up their first score since four weeks ago when China scored against E.E. Smith. The Hornets will exploit their superior athletic ability coupled with exceptional defensive play to pick up another score on either special teams or on defense.
DFBFan's Pick - Hillside (1 - 0) vs. Person (0 - 2)
Hillside - 48
Person - 6
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