Just two weeks remain before the NCHSAA releases the brackets for the 2010 football playoffs. Going into last week's games the possibility existed for a lot of movement within the PAC-6 from an overall conference standing perspective and potential automatic bids as well as in the at-large pool, but after Friday ran its course, its become clear that the playoff contenders have put themselves in prime position for a slot, while those that were just hanging on will most likely be on the outside looking in. A few week ago we went through a breakdown of how the selection process and nuts-and-bolts of the playoff system worked [T-Minus One Month = Playoff Time] and are following it up each week with where the PAC-6 stands from a playoff perspective [Selection Saturday (3 Weeks) - PAC-6 Playoff Picture & More].
Winners last week in the PAC-6 included Jordan, Hillside and Southern Durham (Northern Durham was idle). East Chapel Hill, Person and Riverside were on the losing sideline.
We like to look over Drew Pasteur's site, Fantastic50.net, to help get a gauge of how the at-large picture is going to work out as he has a great track record over the years of how the probabilities tend to work out in that area. The newly updated playoff bubble page for considering at-large berths indicates the following (note the win totals I'll discuss are reportable wins).
Six reportable wins should get you an at-large selection, regardless of conference win total.
Drew is continuing to report that four reportable wins along with one conference win or less will have teams on the outside looking in this playoff year. Teams that have two conference wins along with four reportable wins are now at just a 0.2% chance of snagging a berth, down from a 1% probability a week ago. Compared to last week, teams with four reportable wins and four conference wins have a 37% chance of making the playoffs, up from 30% a week earlier.
Teams with five reportable wins are showing about the same percentage as last week of making the playoffs. Those with one conference win have a 69% chance of making the playoffs, down 4% points from last week, while teams with two, three and four conference wins, have a 92%, 99% and 99.6% chance respectively of making the dance.
Hillside (9-0 overall, 8-0 reportable, 4-0 conference; 2 games remaining, ECH, @Northern Durham) - After last week's convincing win against Riverside, the Hornets continue to be in the driver's seat for the PAC-6 crown. Victories the next two weeks would put the Hornets as the PAC-6 champions with a 10-0 reportable mark. They would be seeded in the first place finishers group and have a solid chance of landing a top two seed. Worst case scenario would be losing out and finishing at 4-2 in conference play. If Northern were to defeat Southern this week, that would place Hillside and Southern in a tie at 4-2 for second in conference. Hillside, by virtue of the head-to-head victory over Southern would be awarded the second place finisher slot for seeding purposes in the playoffs. If Southern were to defeat Northern, then Hillside would be the third place finisher in conference, while Southern would be conference champions for seeding purposes and Northern would fall into the number two slot for seeding purposes. Other possibilities include a win this week and a loss the following week to Northern. Placing the Hornets at 5-1. In this situation, a Northern victory against Southern would place Hillside in a tie for first place with Northern as conference champions, but the number one seed would go to the Knights based on head-to-head and Hillside would pick up the second place slot. A Southern win against Northern, coupled with a Northern win over Hillside would create a three-way tie for first place in conference. Due to the fact that all three teams will have beaten one another, no head-to-head can be used for tie-breaking purposes. A random draw similar to 2006 and 2000 would take place meaning although all three teams would be officially called conference champions, Hillside could find itself at 5-1 in conference and with a 9-1 reportable record as the third place finisher and lumped in that grouping for seeding purposes, going into the playoffs. Based on the possible permutations, it's clear that the Hornets will be in the playoffs based on an automatic bid, without regard to their final two games.
Northern Durham (5-4 overall, 5-3 reportable, 4-0 conference; 2 games remaining, @Southern, Hillside) - The Knights were idle last week and are now officially into the meat of their schedule. The PAC-6 will be won or lost in the next two weeks making the final portion of the season one of the hottest races in the area with three teams vying for top honors. Best case scenario for the Knights is to be 6-0 in conference and 7-3 from a reportable mark. They would be placed in the number one seed group for seeding purposes and would most likely be one of the lower seeds in that grouping based on their 7-3 mark. Worst case scenario is to fall in the next two games and end the season at 4-2 in conference play. This would assure both Southern and Hillside top two finishes, regardless of Hillside's game against ECH and place Northern at third in conference with a 5-5 reportable mark. A victory over Southern this week would put Southern with two losses in conference and guarantee Northern at worst a second place finish in conference going into the Hillside game. A loss this week to Southern and a win the following week against Hillside, could create a three-way tie, as described in the Hillside breakdown depending on how Hillside fairs against the Wildcats this week. At this point, the worst case for Northern is still an automatic bid as a third place finisher.
Southern Durham (4-6 overall, 4-5 reportable, 4-1 conference; 1 game remaining, Northern Durham) - The Spartans are one of two teams in conference (Jordan) that have played 10 games at this point in the season. They'll conclude the regular season this Friday night with their game against Northern and then watch next Friday when the Hornets and Knights battle it out to see where they end up in the PAC-6 top three. Best case scenario for the Spartans is a win against the Knights this week that puts them at 5-1 in conference and drops the Knights to 4-1. A win the following week by the Knights over the Hornets would put all three teams tied for first (assuming Hillside knocks off East this week), while a Hornet victory would put Southern and Hillside atop the standings and provide the Spartans with a second place finish for seeding purposes due to their one point loss earlier in the season to the Hornets. An interesting situation for the Spartans, with a Hornet win next week, they can be named co-conference champs, but have no shot at the number one finish for seeding purposes, while a Knight win would also provide them with the co-conference champ label, and could provide them with a shot at the number one finish for seeding purposes, but just as easily could drop them to number three based on a random draw. A loss this week to Northern (assuming a Hornet victory this week against East) would assure the Spartans a third place finish. Similar to Northern and Hillside, the Spartans with just four reportable wins on the season and after an 0-6 start against a strong opening schedule are guaranteed an automatic bid at this point even with a loss this Friday to Northern.
Jordan (6-4 overall, 6-3 reportable, 2-3 conference; 1 game remaining, @Riverside) - With the Falcons come-from-behind victory over the Rockets last week they improved to six reportable wins and according to Drew's analysis will be in the 2010 playoffs as an at-large team. Based on the current standings in conference, a win against Riverside can bring the Falcons to even in conference but there is not a situation that exists that can get the Falcons into the top three in conference. At best they can finish fourth in conference at 3-3. A loss to the Pirates, neither hurts or helps their chances of a top three finish, but most likely will only affect overall seeding for the playoffs. As an at-large team, reaching the seven win reportable plateau will be important as it will move them into one group higher for seeding purposes.
Riverside (1-8 overall, 1-7 reportable, 1-3 conference; 2 games remaining, @Person, Jordan) - The loss last week to Hillside effectively ended Riverside's chance of making the playoffs. At best they can pull to three reportable wins and 3-3 in conference. Based on current standings, they will be unable to reach a top three finish and the three reportable wins does not reach the four win plateau required for at-large eligibility.
Person (2-7 overall, 2-6 reportable, 0-4 conference; 2 games remaining, Riverside, @ECH) - The Rockets will have a solid chance at pulling off two victories to close out the season, but unfortunately that will net them just a 2-4 mark in conference play, outside of any potential for snagging a top three finish. Two wins would place them at four reportable wins, making them eligible to be considered for post-season play as an at-large team, but they would only have two conference wins to go along with those four reportable wins. According to Drew Pasteur the probability of a four win/two conference win team making the playoffs as an at-large is currently less than 1% (0.2% to be exact). It appears that with Person's loss last week to Jordan, their hopes of making the post season were also lost.
East Chapel Hill (1-8 overall, 1-7 reportable, 0-4 conference; 2 games remaining, @Hillside, Person) - The Wildcats, along with the Pirates are the only two teams currently in conference that are officially out of the playoff picture. Two wins to close out the season would put East with a 2-4 conference mark, outside of the automatic qualifier region and only yield a 3-7 reportable mark, one win short of the eligibility plateau for an at-large bid.
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