Log Jam Officially in Play in Tri-9

PHOTO BY RAY BLACK III - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

It certainly feels like we are rounding that final corner and with just three games and in some cases two games remaining for most of the area teams, conference automatic bids are at stake and reaching the four win playoff qualification plateau is in the forefront for a number of teams.  Every Friday night during the fall is a great one to get out and watch a football game, but with the weather appearing to move even more into those 40's and 50's and with teams angling for a top three conference finish - tonight is guaranteed to be a great night for Football Friday.

In the following capsules (this post and others to follow and already submitted), we'll briefly hit on the 4A conferences around the area and talk playoff implications for this evening's games.

TRI-9

Fuquay, Panther Creek, Middle Creek, Cary or Athens Drive; who do you have winning the Tri-Nine?  Good question, perhaps, but I have to admit it's an easy one to ask as it seems that every year the conference is typically the one that has the most riding on the final few games of the year and the potential for a three way tie that results in the dreaded random draw is always lurking near-by.  This year appears to be no different.  Fuquay-Varina and Panther Creek both sit at 5-1 in conference play, although FV holds the head-to-head tie breaker over the Catamounts.  Close behind are Middle Creek at 4-1 and Cary and Athens Drive both at 3-2.  And oh by the way - don't count out a Holly Springs squad at 2-3 and still three conference games to go!

Fuquay is definitely in the drivers seat as they have Holly Springs this evening and then will finish the season against a 1-5 Apex squad next week.  If the Bengals can close out with two wins, they'll be conference champs assuming that both PC and Middle Creek don't also finish with only one loss (read random draw) or if only Panther Creek equals them as the head-to-head is securely in the Bengals' den. Worst case scenario for the Bengals would be to have PC lose once more in conference and have Middle Creek win out.  In that situation the Mustangs would snag the title. Holly Springs could create some turmoil if the battle of the double-wing/ wing-t oriented offenses concludes with the upset this evening.  The Hawks need two more wins to get to four on the season, but if they can pull that off, it's possible that they could find themselves in a tie for third place in the conference.  Either way, every game in these three is uber-important for the Hawks as they close out 2011.

Talking Playoffs and Conference Winning Percentages

PHOTO BY ROBERT WILLETT - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

There are a number places that one can find themselves mired down and completely and utterly confused when thinking about whether a particular team will make the playoffs or where they might be seeded if in fact they do make the field of 64.  But, of late I've seen a recurring discussion about where conference winning percentage plays into the mix and from the discussion I've seen it appears that the confusion simply continues.

About a year ago I posted an extensive outline on how the selection process and seeding would occur for the 2010 playoffs.  Rather than go through this process all over again, I'll simply point you to the following story, [T-Minus One Month = Playoff Time], and caution you to take note of the following.  First, this was done a year ago, so disregard all talk about specific teams, as it deals completely with the 2010 season.  Second, there is discussion about dropping a non-conference game for those that played an endowment.  Obviously that has changed since a year ago and I would direct you to one of the following two posts [When Does 4 Wins Not Equal 4 Wins?] and [Multiple Endowments, Oh My!] to get up-to-date on that angle.  Once you've gotten through those items, the rest should be good to go for this year.  But before you delve deep into that post (the T-Minus One Month post), if you scan down all the way to the end (of that post), you'll see a footnote of sorts.  Essentially, it's a footnote about conference winning percentage and how it plays into the process and the fact that the wording and set-up in the NCHSAA handbook [NCHSAA Handbook Football] is a bit ambiguous on this area.  I would add that as you read this year's handbook, you'll leave essentially in the same state, a bit confused and not so sure.  But, I took the time to look through last year's playoffs and I think I may have this down now, based on the data from last year's bracket.

The reasonably debatable question is about how conference winning percentage plays into the selection process IF more than 64 teams qualify based on the following two criteria.  First, the number of automatic qualifiers are selected (1-3 place finishers in a single classification conference and 1-2 place finisher in split classification conference).   Second, all teams not in that first group that reach the four win plateau.  At this point, if between the two of those situations we have more than 64 teams the handbooks says that they will move to conference winning percentage to select who makes the playoffs.  What is unclear in the wording is how exactly that is done.

To be more specific, it would be easy for someone to read what is written in the handbook and say that if you have more than 64 teams selected then they move to conference winning percentage to select everyone.  It's simply ambiguous.  So I looked back over last year's playoff bracket to get a definitive answer and here is what I determined.