Playoff Update - 84 Remain

PHOTO BY DEAN STRICKLAND - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

This is one of those things about the football season at every level, but especially in college and high school where it seems to fly by before it even started, that makes you sometimes wish you had a 'bloated' major league baseball type season - or...perhaps not.  

Another week is gone and we sit with just two remaining regular season weeks to go and teams are working hard to position for not only playoff qualification, but also for top seeding as we close out the 2011 regular season.

As we did a week ago, we'll run through some brief playoff elements, specifically with regard to the classification AAAA teams in the state.  As always, we'd like to point out the assistance we received from one of the top resource sites in North Carolina when it comes to overall team statistics.  If you haven't checked them out, then please take a moment and do that before the season is out.  References, citations, footnotes - whatever your modus operandi is with regards to giving credit - are a good thing, so I wanted to give a shout out to the Asheville Reynolds contingent that have for so many years done an awesome job with their website [www.gobiggreen.net].  Almost all of the information that I used to put together this post was compiled based on their site.

Playoffs Out of Reach?

Heading into last weeks' games, Garinger HS and Southwest Guilford (due to a post-season ban) were the only two teams that looked certain to not be in a position to make the playoffs.  A total of four additional teams; Sanderson, Smithfield Selma, Ben L. Smith and East Mecklenburg were in positions where we reported it looked as though they would need to win out to have the opportunity to at the very least qualify for the playoffs.  All four ended up losing last week and with that, it appears that all four are officially eliminated from post-season consideration as they each have two games remaining on their schedules and are not in position to reach the four win plateau or compete for a top three finish in their respective conferences.  Joining these six squads as we enter this week of play are an additional 10 teams that currently have one overall win on the season, with either one conference win or less and only two games or less remaining on their schedules.  It appears, that even if they were to win out, they would certainly be below the four win qualifying plateau and will be unable to reach a top three finish in their respective conferences.  They include: Person, North Mecklenburg, Enloe, McDowell, Providence, Apex, Riverside, Pine Forest, Terry Sanford and Southern Alamance.  Even though the playoffs may be out of reach for each of these teams, with two weeks to go, many of them will be playing squads jockeying for playoff position and a few wins here or there by these squads could make things interesting for the remaining AAAA teams.

Yes As a Matter of Fact, Ties Do Exist for the Record

PHOTO BY CHRIS ADAMCZYK - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

Northern Durham was the lone PAC-6 squad in action last evening in non-conference play as they took on the Apex Cougars from the Tri-9.  The game went back and forth with the Knights taking an early lead, only to fall behind and have to mount a comeback late.  After both teams missed PATs on their final scores of the game, the scoreboard read 20-20 at the newly refurbished Durham County Memorial Stadium and it looked like the fans were in for a treat on a brisk October evening, with overtime and more football.  But that wasn't to be the case as this was truly a trick-or-treat night and no treats were to be found, instead of deciding the game on the field in overtime, the game was declared final at 20-20.

So what happened you ask?  According to the rules of the NCHSAA, prior to any non-conference game, both head coaches are asked whether they would like to play overtime if the game is tied at the end of regulation.  If one of the two coaches decides not to play overtime, then the game officially ends as a tie.  The key is that both coaches have to agree to play the overtime session.

Tie Equivalent to Loss in Playoff Speak

Fast forward or perhaps rewind to last evening and with the game tied at the end of regulation, the decision was made to not proceed to overtime.  According to an article in the Durham Herald Sun by Joe Johnson [Blocked PAT leaves Northern with a tie], the decision not to play overtime appears to have been made by the Apex coaching staff.  A quote from the article stated the following: "The game ended in a tie because both coaches have to agree to play overtime before the start of the game and Apex coach Bob Wolfe declined."  From this information it appears that at the very least Apex decided not to play overtime.  The inference is that if that had not been the case, overtime would have been played, which would indicate that the Northern staff had agreed to play overtime.  From the story, it's unclear with 100% certainty that this was the case, but suffice it to say that at the very least one of the two staffs definitely elected not to play overtime.

Log Jam Officially in Play in Tri-9

PHOTO BY RAY BLACK III - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

It certainly feels like we are rounding that final corner and with just three games and in some cases two games remaining for most of the area teams, conference automatic bids are at stake and reaching the four win playoff qualification plateau is in the forefront for a number of teams.  Every Friday night during the fall is a great one to get out and watch a football game, but with the weather appearing to move even more into those 40's and 50's and with teams angling for a top three conference finish - tonight is guaranteed to be a great night for Football Friday.

In the following capsules (this post and others to follow and already submitted), we'll briefly hit on the 4A conferences around the area and talk playoff implications for this evening's games.

TRI-9

Fuquay, Panther Creek, Middle Creek, Cary or Athens Drive; who do you have winning the Tri-Nine?  Good question, perhaps, but I have to admit it's an easy one to ask as it seems that every year the conference is typically the one that has the most riding on the final few games of the year and the potential for a three way tie that results in the dreaded random draw is always lurking near-by.  This year appears to be no different.  Fuquay-Varina and Panther Creek both sit at 5-1 in conference play, although FV holds the head-to-head tie breaker over the Catamounts.  Close behind are Middle Creek at 4-1 and Cary and Athens Drive both at 3-2.  And oh by the way - don't count out a Holly Springs squad at 2-3 and still three conference games to go!

Fuquay is definitely in the drivers seat as they have Holly Springs this evening and then will finish the season against a 1-5 Apex squad next week.  If the Bengals can close out with two wins, they'll be conference champs assuming that both PC and Middle Creek don't also finish with only one loss (read random draw) or if only Panther Creek equals them as the head-to-head is securely in the Bengals' den. Worst case scenario for the Bengals would be to have PC lose once more in conference and have Middle Creek win out.  In that situation the Mustangs would snag the title. Holly Springs could create some turmoil if the battle of the double-wing/ wing-t oriented offenses concludes with the upset this evening.  The Hawks need two more wins to get to four on the season, but if they can pull that off, it's possible that they could find themselves in a tie for third place in the conference.  Either way, every game in these three is uber-important for the Hawks as they close out 2011.

Playoff Update - Only 94 Remain

PHOTO BY JOHNNY JOHNSON - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

Conference races are heating up throughout the state and before we know it that first week of the playoffs will be upon us.  I know that personally one thing I'm definitely missing is the exceptional work that Drew Pasteur put forth each fall with regards to his Fantastic 50 predictions that ultimately culminated in the incredible work that projected out all of the brackets.  It was amazing work and in case you happen to be reading Drew - thanks for all that you did to support high school athletics in North Carolina over the years and I hope you and the family are doing well up North!

I won't try to match what Drew did, but I did take a few moments and go through and get a bit of information about all of the classification AAAA teams in the state and at least have an idea of where teams stand as we head into the final three weeks of the regular season.  References, citations, footnotes - whatever your modus operandi is with regards to giving credit - are a good thing, so I wanted to give a shout out to the Asheville Reynolds contingent that have for so many years done an awesome job with their website [www.gobiggreen.net].  Almost all of the information that I used to put together some of the information I'm going to present came from their site.  If you haven't checked out this site and you follow high school ball in the state, then you are definitely missing out.  For those that value a bit of perspective when you are talking around the water cooler (as opposed to the hype machines that base the hype on zero substance) you have to check out the site, you won't be disappointed.

Playoffs Out of Reach?

Well, you knew it was coming sooner or later and with last week we had four additional teams inch closer to the edge and get very close to joining Garinger High School and Southwest Guilford as teams that as best as I can determine will not be able to make the playoffs this year, unless some incredible things happen over the final three weeks.  Southwest Guilford will be ineligible for postseason play because of players being ejected earlier this season.  Garinger was eliminated a week prior as they currently have zero reportable wins with only two games remaining on their schedule.  Sanderson, Smithfield Selma, Ben L. Smith and East Mecklenburg look to be at best half-way out of consideration at this point.  All have zero reportable wins and only three games remaining meaning that winning all of them will not get them to the four win plateau for at-large consideration.  It also does not appear that winning their three remaining games would get them into the top three of their conferences for an automatic bid unless there are numerous upsets that create a log-jam in the three win region.  That said, if any of those four can pull off a three game winning streak to close the season and if crazy things happen ahead of them - who knows, it just might be their lucky day!