Playoff Update - 84 Remain

PHOTO BY DEAN STRICKLAND - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

This is one of those things about the football season at every level, but especially in college and high school where it seems to fly by before it even started, that makes you sometimes wish you had a 'bloated' major league baseball type season - or...perhaps not.  

Another week is gone and we sit with just two remaining regular season weeks to go and teams are working hard to position for not only playoff qualification, but also for top seeding as we close out the 2011 regular season.

As we did a week ago, we'll run through some brief playoff elements, specifically with regard to the classification AAAA teams in the state.  As always, we'd like to point out the assistance we received from one of the top resource sites in North Carolina when it comes to overall team statistics.  If you haven't checked them out, then please take a moment and do that before the season is out.  References, citations, footnotes - whatever your modus operandi is with regards to giving credit - are a good thing, so I wanted to give a shout out to the Asheville Reynolds contingent that have for so many years done an awesome job with their website [www.gobiggreen.net].  Almost all of the information that I used to put together this post was compiled based on their site.

Playoffs Out of Reach?

Heading into last weeks' games, Garinger HS and Southwest Guilford (due to a post-season ban) were the only two teams that looked certain to not be in a position to make the playoffs.  A total of four additional teams; Sanderson, Smithfield Selma, Ben L. Smith and East Mecklenburg were in positions where we reported it looked as though they would need to win out to have the opportunity to at the very least qualify for the playoffs.  All four ended up losing last week and with that, it appears that all four are officially eliminated from post-season consideration as they each have two games remaining on their schedules and are not in position to reach the four win plateau or compete for a top three finish in their respective conferences.  Joining these six squads as we enter this week of play are an additional 10 teams that currently have one overall win on the season, with either one conference win or less and only two games or less remaining on their schedules.  It appears, that even if they were to win out, they would certainly be below the four win qualifying plateau and will be unable to reach a top three finish in their respective conferences.  They include: Person, North Mecklenburg, Enloe, McDowell, Providence, Apex, Riverside, Pine Forest, Terry Sanford and Southern Alamance.  Even though the playoffs may be out of reach for each of these teams, with two weeks to go, many of them will be playing squads jockeying for playoff position and a few wins here or there by these squads could make things interesting for the remaining AAAA teams.

And Down the Stretch They Come!

PHOTO BY CHRIS SEWARD - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

It certainly feels like we are rounding that final corner and with just three games and in some cases two games remaining for most of the area teams, conference automatic bids are at stake and reaching the four win playoff qualification plateau is in the forefront for a number of teams.  Every Friday night during the fall is a great one to get out and watch a football game, but with the weather appearing to move even more into those 40's and 50's and with teams angling for a top three conference finish - tonight is guaranteed to be a great night for Football Friday.

In the following capsules (this post and others to follow), we'll briefly hit on the 4A conferences around the area and talk playoff implications for this evening's games.

PAC-6

Check out our post from earlier concerning Person and Jordan [Tonight is a Playoff Night in the PAC-6].

Hillside with a win will secure a top three finish as they'll move to four wins in conference (assuming everyone else holds serve...).  A Riverside loss will drop them out of playoff contention as they'll have only two games remaining on the schedule and not be able to reach the 3-3 mark in conference that could be open for a third place automatic berth.

Southern Durham, needs a win in their final two against either East or Northern, assuming other teams in conference hold serve in order to secure a top three finish (important we say hold serve, because if others don't, then four wins in conference may not be enough!).  If both Southern and Hillside win this evening, they'll be three teams in the PAC-6 with four conference wins, with Northern slated to close out the season against the other two.

Playoff Update - Only 94 Remain

PHOTO BY JOHNNY JOHNSON - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

Conference races are heating up throughout the state and before we know it that first week of the playoffs will be upon us.  I know that personally one thing I'm definitely missing is the exceptional work that Drew Pasteur put forth each fall with regards to his Fantastic 50 predictions that ultimately culminated in the incredible work that projected out all of the brackets.  It was amazing work and in case you happen to be reading Drew - thanks for all that you did to support high school athletics in North Carolina over the years and I hope you and the family are doing well up North!

I won't try to match what Drew did, but I did take a few moments and go through and get a bit of information about all of the classification AAAA teams in the state and at least have an idea of where teams stand as we head into the final three weeks of the regular season.  References, citations, footnotes - whatever your modus operandi is with regards to giving credit - are a good thing, so I wanted to give a shout out to the Asheville Reynolds contingent that have for so many years done an awesome job with their website [www.gobiggreen.net].  Almost all of the information that I used to put together some of the information I'm going to present came from their site.  If you haven't checked out this site and you follow high school ball in the state, then you are definitely missing out.  For those that value a bit of perspective when you are talking around the water cooler (as opposed to the hype machines that base the hype on zero substance) you have to check out the site, you won't be disappointed.

Playoffs Out of Reach?

Well, you knew it was coming sooner or later and with last week we had four additional teams inch closer to the edge and get very close to joining Garinger High School and Southwest Guilford as teams that as best as I can determine will not be able to make the playoffs this year, unless some incredible things happen over the final three weeks.  Southwest Guilford will be ineligible for postseason play because of players being ejected earlier this season.  Garinger was eliminated a week prior as they currently have zero reportable wins with only two games remaining on their schedule.  Sanderson, Smithfield Selma, Ben L. Smith and East Mecklenburg look to be at best half-way out of consideration at this point.  All have zero reportable wins and only three games remaining meaning that winning all of them will not get them to the four win plateau for at-large consideration.  It also does not appear that winning their three remaining games would get them into the top three of their conferences for an automatic bid unless there are numerous upsets that create a log-jam in the three win region.  That said, if any of those four can pull off a three game winning streak to close the season and if crazy things happen ahead of them - who knows, it just might be their lucky day!

the Work Week Quarterback (WWQB) - Thoughts and Notes

PHOTO BY ROBERT WILLETT - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

the Work Week QB is Here!

The PAC-6 appears to be solidifying their top three berths for the playoffs based on the results from this past Friday.  We knew going into the games that either the race for those three spots would either become incredibly undecided or else the favorites would exert their might and put some quality distance between the top half of the conference and the bottom  half.  The only game that appeared to be completely up in the air was the Northern Durham at East Chapel Hill game [Knights and Wildcats for First Place?], where the Knights showed dominance on the ground, while the Wildcats struggled to hold onto the ball, leading to Northern equaling their conference win total from a year ago and positioning themselves strongly to at worst end up as the third place finisher, unless some crazy upsets occur over the next three weeks, and with it an automatic bid to the 2011 playoffs.

Bull City Alum

The Bull City has been fortunate to see a number of their student-athletes move on to the collegiate level in a number of sports.  The opening picture is of Jordan alum T.J. Thorpe, currently in his first year at North Carolina.  T.J. has been the primary kick-off return specialist for the Tarheels so far this season and the photo by News & Observer photographer Robert Willett is from the game against Virginia earlier this year.

Playoff Odds and Ends

We've hit the blog hard with a lot of playoff talk, so be sure to check out our recent posts to get up to speed on how it may or may not affect your favorite team.  [When Does 4 Wins Not Equal 4 Wins?], [Multiple Endowments, Oh My!], [Talking Playoffs and Conference Winning Percentages], [NCHSAA Handbook Football], and from last year, our description of how the playoff process will work - [T-Minus One Month = Playoff Time] - aside from a few changes over the past year.


Thinking Bull City Pigskin and the Playoffs

Hillside continued its dominance within the Bull City and PAC-6 in general with a convincing 36-7 victory over cross-town rival Jordan.  The Hornets still have three conference games to go with their regular season finale against Northern Durham potentially shaping up to be for the conference crown.  The Hornets sit at 6-1 overall and 3-0 in the conference and would appear to be in a strong position to nab one of the top three slots, unless what most would consider a huge upset here or there were to occur.  Assuming a complete collapse were to occur, the Hornets would finish at 6-4 and 3-3 (0.500) in conference.  With only ten games on the schedule, they'll retain their full record from the reporting perspective and if they had to go in as an at-large would be in a solid position with six reportable wins and the 0.500 conference winning percentage.  These final three games will be about playoff positioning and Bull City Pride.

Hillside Takes Six Slots in HSOT Pre-season All-OT

Courtesy Don Callahan

The Hillside Hornets may have lost a number of players off of the 2010 4A State Championship squad, but judging from HighSchoolOT.com's pre-season All-OT team [Link to HSOT article] it's safe to say that the reigning PAC-6 champs are simply reloading as opposed to rebuilding.  The Hornets snagged four first-team selections, the most of any area team.  The PAC-6 picked up two additional selections for a total of six out of thirty-two first team selections.  Six additional PAC-6 athletes made the second-team, with an additional six making honorable mention.

Highlighting the All-OT team from Hillside is the Defensive Player of the Year in defensive end and linebacker Jamal Marcus.  Marcus was a dominate force last season on one of the more formidable defenses in the state and has excelled throughout the off-season at a number of college camps and combine events.  Joining Marcus on the first-team are returning starter Casey Perry (offensive line) and dynamic running back Khris Francis (athlete) and one of the top returning corners in the area in Aaron Krah (defensive back).  Only Person and Jordan nabbed first-team selections in addition to the Hornets, in the form of returning starter and highly touted offensive lineman Casey Lawson (Person) and safety/wide receiver Phil Williamson from Jordan.

Southern Durham, a potential favorite this season to knock the Hornets off of the top spot, picked up three second-team selections.  All three returners are expected to lead the Spartans in their 2011 march, including two that played big roles offensively for Southern a year ago.  Wide receiver Darren Bullock and running back Akeem Judd (athlete selection) as well as defensive lineman Micah Martin secured selections on the second team.  Both Jordan and Person picked up two additional selections on the second team.  Jeff Clark, wide receiver from Jordan, will be one of the many offensive weapons the Falcons will put forth this season, while offensive lineman Spencer Carroll from Person will team up with first team selection Casey Lawson to help Coach Lou Geary in his second year as head coach in Roxboro.  Lee Williams, linebacker from Hillside, rounds out the second-team selections from the PAC-6.

Courtesy Don Callahan

Six players were selected for honorable mention from the conference.  Returning dual-threat quarterback Dorian Belcher from Southern Durham and Drew Davis, quarterback from East Chapel Hill were two of three quarterbacks selected for honorable mention.  Joining Davis from East Chapel Hill were two additional Wildcats, offensive lineman William Heine and wide receiver Alex Moore.  Another defensive back from Hillside, Keenan Stalls was selected as well as Riverside wide receiver Khourtne Whitted.  The only school in the conference to not receive any selections on the pre-season team was Northern Durham.

Breakdown of HSOT Pre-Season All-OT PAC-6 selections by school:

Hillside - 6 overall selections (4 - 1st; 1 - 2nd; 1 - HM)
Southern - 4 overall selections (3 - 2nd; 1 - HM)
East Chapel Hill - 3 overall selections (3 - HM)
Jordan - 2 overall selections (1 - 1st; 1 - 2nd)
Person - 2 overall selections (1 - 1st; 1 - 2nd)
Riverside - 1 overall selection (1 - HM)

Are You Ready 4 Some Football? 2011 Style

Courtesy Don Callahan

We are less than 24 hours away from the official start of the 2011 high school football season in North Carolina and local schools are gearing up for the push towards that first day of full-contact, quickly followed by scrimmages and before we all know it - the first Football Friday on August 19th.

Schools in the area have been hard at work throughout the summer in non-mandatory summer workouts and competing in a number of passing leagues [Hillside, Jordan, Southern Durham, Northern Durham, Person, East Chapel Hill, Wakefield, Leesville Road] in an effort to be ahead of the curve when midnight strikes this evening and the NCHSAA officially allows schools to begin the process of official practice.

Some schools, including Northern Durham and Riverside will take to the field literally at midnight.  The Knights have coined their start to 2011 under returning head coach Gary Merrill - MidKnight Madness.  According to their school athletic website for football, they'll get underway at Northern at 12:00 AM on Saturday (7/30/2011).  As for the Pirates, another PAC-6 school under new leadership, they'll have a cook-out on Friday evening and then hit the turf in earnest at midnight. Riverside will be looking to rebound in 2011 under new head coach David Hackney, a Jordan graduate that led the Falcons, years ago, as the starting quarterback [Pirates Suit-Up for Midnight Practice].

Southern Durham and Hillside are slated to start the season on Saturday, July 30th, with the Spartans beating the heat with an early morning practice according to their football-centric site.  Person will also begin the season on Saturday morning with an 8-11 AM practice [Person Athletic Site].  The Jordan Falcons will also try to beat the heat with a morning practice on Saturday beginning at 8 AM [Jordan Practice Announcement].

HighSchoolOT.com will be holding their pre-season get-together [Link to article on this event] with area head coaches and players from local schools later today to discuss what the site, WRAL and 99.9 The Fan and 620 The Buzz will be doing this upcoming 2011 season to support the Football Friday scene.  Representatives from each of these entities will be in attendance to give a break-down of what to look forward to this season.  Of course you can find all of the information about this event and any news that breaks at the event at HighSchoolOT.com.

PAC-6 Order: Summer Style

Courtesy Marques Burnett/iHigh.com

There is no doubt that football fever is taking hold here in the Carolina's and I don't know about y'all, but I'm ready for things to get rolling!  So many story lines are present as we head into the 2011 campaign after the huge success of the 2010 Hornets and a strong conference and playoff push by the Spartans.  The biggest question being asked here in Durham is who will take the PAC-6 crown this season and which team may be the unexpected bunch to put in a strong push to be the 'Northern Durham' of 2011.

I'm not going to go into great detail in this posting, but I thought I'd put out a list of how I think this upcoming season may go from a conference perspective.  This list is based on taking a number of factors and pretty much throwing them into a big pot and giving you my gut feeling as we head into the summer.  Some things I felt pertinent to consider as I thought about this list included:  what I learned from last season, how teams were playing as the season progressed, who will be returning and what I know about the teams in a general sense, and what I know about the coaching staffs.

With that, I'll give you the list - but before I do that, feel free to post your comments after the story as I look forward to hearing what folks think about this upcoming 2011 season in the Bull City!

PAC-6 Conference Order:  Summer Style

1. Hillside Hornets - This is close between the Hornets and Spartans, but at the moment, I'll have to go with the team that downright dominated Durham a year ago - and yes, in many ways, that Hornet/Spartan affair wasn't nearly as close as the score indicated a year ago!  Check out a recent article on the 2011 Hornets

2. Southern Durham Spartans - This is the team that should make the move this year and if the Hornets play sloppy ball as they did a year ago against the Spartans - look for Southern to take the game and take it handily.  Check out a recent article on the 2011 Spartans

3. Person Rockets - What - Person?  Ya, you betcha!  The Rockets were a team on the move as the season progressed and I'll be honest I think Coach Geary has a solid chance to move that program to the next level.

4. Northern Durham Knights - I have to admit, I wasn't thrilled by the whole coaching change thing on Milton Road, but you can't deny the fact that they brought in one incredible 'replacement'!  Coach Merrill knows how to win football games and there is no doubt that when it comes to the in-game chess match he'll compete and compete at a high level.  There are a lot of questions in how the players will respond to the brand of football Coach Merrill has been successful with in the past - if you aren't familiar, it's a lot different then the finesse and spread you out ball you saw the last few years.  With those questions in hand, I see the Knights dropping a spot from a season ago, but to be honest, there isn't a thing wrong with that when you look at the high level of football being fielded in Durham of late.

5. Jordan Falcons - Honestly, with the loss of one of the best football players to ever step foot in Durham, in T.J. Thorpe (UNC), I find it difficult to see the Falcons do much better than a year ago.  They picked up three conference wins a year ago and with Person moving up and with Coach Merrill having Coach Briggs number (he hasn't lost to Coach Briggs) as well as a number of other items - I see the Falcons finding themselves middle of the pack yet again.

6. East Chapel Hill Wildcats - I see a lot of similarities between this Wildcat team and the Rockets.  They have a coach that understands offensive football and have a system that can put up points.  They also have a quarterback that has a year under his belt in a system that relies heavily on that individual making solid decisions.  Add to that the fact that through my 'aka grapevine' I've heard about some more athletes from other sports believing that playing in this type of system can be fun and thus - coming out.  Put those elements together and I think you have a team that can get a win in conference and quite possibly might be able to get one or two more.

7.  Riverside Pirates - There is no doubt that Coach Hackney will bring a solid level of excitement to the Pirate Nation, but the reality is that after years of being beaten down I find it tough to believe that they'll make a huge rebound in year one.  I personally think that as time progresses, there will be more wins on the gridiron for the Pirates and much of that will be as a result of battles won in the off-season.

There you have it - if you like what you see or not - make sure to comment and give it a +1 - As always, thanks for stopping by BCF4S - Greatly Appreciated!!

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Riverside Set to Announce after Spell's Resignation

Spell Resigns

On Wednesday (1/19/2011), according to local reports, third year Riverside head football coach Todd Spell decided to resign his position after posting a combined 6-27 [2010 - 1-10; 2009 - 4-7; 2008 - 1-10] overall mark from 2008 to last season.  During his tenure the Pirates missed the playoffs for three straight seasons and were 4-15 in conference play [2010 - 1-5; 2009 - 2-4; 2008 - 1-6] (http://www.highschoolot.com/content/story/8965689/). Prior to Spell taking over the  helm of the Pirate program he had served as an assistant to head coach Tommy Blalock and was a member of the 2006 coaching staff that helped the Pirates reach the 4AA State Championship game against the Tommy Knotts coached Independence Patriots.  No additional details were provided on the reasons behind Spell's resignation, but it should be noted that since he took over the program, the administration at Riverside changed at the top with Florida native Jackie Tobias taking over as principal.

The last time the Pirates reached the playoffs and had a winning season was during the 2006 State Championship march. Any discussion of the 2006 campaign has to include mention of all-everything and subsequent South Carolina Gamecock Weslye Saunders.  He dominated on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball and in many ways was the deciding factor in the outcome of a number of games during the season.  For those that have followed the game and were privy to some of the behind the scenes of that year the fact that the Pirates were able to reach the championship is an even more amazing story than their opening 3-4 start of the season can even begin to express.

Since 2006, the Pirates have faltered on the field, posting just one season with more than one win (2009), including Blalock's final year guiding the ship in 2007 when the Pirates went 1-10 and 1-6 in PAC-6 play.  Since 1999 the  Pirates have been a roughly below-average program when it comes to wins and losses, posting an overall 63-79 mark.  During those 12 years the Pirates have managed one PAC-6 crown and a total of five winning seasons, while managing six seasons with four or fewer victories.  Within the current PAC-6 that includes, East Chapel Hill, Person, Jordan, Northern, Southern and Hillside, only one team, East Chapel Hill has posted less wins over the same time period (21).  Person has managed 65 over that same time period, with Northern and Hillside (80), Jordan (85) and Southern (119) rounding out the conference.

The Numbers and How They Compare

Statistically, the Pirates have struggled primarily on the defensive side of the ball the past three seasons.  On average the Pirates since 2008 have given up just over 36 PPG against their non-conference opponents while yielding just over 37 PPG against conference foes.  The raw numbers are 505 points in non-conference play and 704 in conference play.  Offensively, in 2009 and 2010 the Pirates did better on the offensive side during their conference schedule as opposed to non-conference, posting roughly 19 PPG in 2010 and just over 16 PPG in 2009 against the PAC-6.  They struggled against their non-conference competition during those years, managing just 12 PPG last year and just over 14 PPG in 2009.  In Spell's first year as head coach, the Pirates faired much better in non-conference play with 22 PPG and just under 14 PPG in conference play.  Overall during Spell's three year tenure, the Pirates put up just under 16 PPG in non-conference tilts while managing just over 16 PPG in PAC-6 play.  Offensive numbers aside, it's clear that the immense amount of points allowed defensively made it difficult and would have made it difficult for any offense to keep the Pirates in games (it should be noted that the defensive numbers include scores by special teams as well as offensive turnovers that may have directly ended in a score.  To what extent those numbers serve as an overall percentage of the defensive statistics I am unable to comment on).  Taking non-conference and conference as individual categories over the past three seasons (six categories), the Pirates allowed 35 or more points in four of six categories, with the best overall performance occurring in 2009 during non-conference play when the Pirates allowed just under 27 PPG.