Feels Like Old Times in the PAC-6

PHOTO BY ROBERT WILLETT - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

It's tough to tell if the Northern Durham Knights are finally back based on what we've seen over the past two seasons, but I think it's safe to say that at the very least they aren't afraid to knock on the door.  

After tonight, we might find out if they are ready to start knocking down some doors and calling the Bull City their playground once again.  Last year, under Coach Anthony Sullivan the Knights rebounded after struggling for the bulk of the previous decade.  Heading into the final two weeks of the regular season, the Knights were exactly where they are this evening, with four wins in conference to no defeats.  But as with last year, they had their toughest competition ahead, in the Southern Durham Spartans, followed up by a regular season finale against Hillside.  A year ago the Knights were unable to capitalize on the early conference momentum and fell to both the Spartans and Hornets, but still managed to claim a third place finish and automatic bid to the playoffs.  For the Spartans, they enter tonight's game with just one conference loss, against the Hornets, as they did a year ago, but the vibe is that this Spartan squad is perhaps further along than the one from a year ago.  Much of their team has an extra year of varsity experience and they managed their non-conference schedule, tough as it is and typically always has been under Coach Jones, with a respectable 2-2 mark including a thrilling overtime loss to visiting Dunbar from the Washington, D.C. area.

Tonight's game is just as big as a year ago for both squads.  A win keeps conference championship hopes alive, while a loss will mean that a second or third place finish is in the cards.  There are a number of top-notch games throughout the area, but if you happen to be in North Durham, then Durham County Memorial Stadium is where you need to be this evening!

Articles on the playoffs:

Playoff Update - 84 Remain   [Link to Article]
the Work Week Quarterback (WWQB) - Thoughts and Notes   [Link to Article]

Talking Playoffs and Conference Winning Percentages   [Link to Article]
When Does 4 Wins Not Equal 4 Wins?   [Link to Article]
Multiple Endowments, Oh My!   [Link to Article]


PAC-6 Match-up, Friday, 10/21/2011

S. Durham (6-3 overall, 4-1 conference) at N. Durham (4-3-1 overall, 4-0 conference)

Reality is that win or lose this evening, the most probable outcome for the conference is to see both of these squads end-up either first through third in conference and thus receive automatic bids to the playoffs. The wildcard in this equation are the Wildcats of East Chapel Hill that are taking on Hillside this evening.  If the Hornets do what they do best - run the ball with Francis and that huge offensive line - and their defense plays the type of attacking and physical defense we've become accustomed to, it is tough to imagine the Wildcats pulling the upset.  In that scenario, the Hornets, Knights and Spartans will end up as the top three finishers, no matter the outcome of tonight's game at County Stadium.

Yes As a Matter of Fact, Ties Do Exist for the Record

PHOTO BY CHRIS ADAMCZYK - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

Northern Durham was the lone PAC-6 squad in action last evening in non-conference play as they took on the Apex Cougars from the Tri-9.  The game went back and forth with the Knights taking an early lead, only to fall behind and have to mount a comeback late.  After both teams missed PATs on their final scores of the game, the scoreboard read 20-20 at the newly refurbished Durham County Memorial Stadium and it looked like the fans were in for a treat on a brisk October evening, with overtime and more football.  But that wasn't to be the case as this was truly a trick-or-treat night and no treats were to be found, instead of deciding the game on the field in overtime, the game was declared final at 20-20.

So what happened you ask?  According to the rules of the NCHSAA, prior to any non-conference game, both head coaches are asked whether they would like to play overtime if the game is tied at the end of regulation.  If one of the two coaches decides not to play overtime, then the game officially ends as a tie.  The key is that both coaches have to agree to play the overtime session.

Tie Equivalent to Loss in Playoff Speak

Fast forward or perhaps rewind to last evening and with the game tied at the end of regulation, the decision was made to not proceed to overtime.  According to an article in the Durham Herald Sun by Joe Johnson [Blocked PAT leaves Northern with a tie], the decision not to play overtime appears to have been made by the Apex coaching staff.  A quote from the article stated the following: "The game ended in a tie because both coaches have to agree to play overtime before the start of the game and Apex coach Bob Wolfe declined."  From this information it appears that at the very least Apex decided not to play overtime.  The inference is that if that had not been the case, overtime would have been played, which would indicate that the Northern staff had agreed to play overtime.  From the story, it's unclear with 100% certainty that this was the case, but suffice it to say that at the very least one of the two staffs definitely elected not to play overtime.

And Down the Stretch They Come!

PHOTO BY CHRIS SEWARD - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

It certainly feels like we are rounding that final corner and with just three games and in some cases two games remaining for most of the area teams, conference automatic bids are at stake and reaching the four win playoff qualification plateau is in the forefront for a number of teams.  Every Friday night during the fall is a great one to get out and watch a football game, but with the weather appearing to move even more into those 40's and 50's and with teams angling for a top three conference finish - tonight is guaranteed to be a great night for Football Friday.

In the following capsules (this post and others to follow), we'll briefly hit on the 4A conferences around the area and talk playoff implications for this evening's games.

PAC-6

Check out our post from earlier concerning Person and Jordan [Tonight is a Playoff Night in the PAC-6].

Hillside with a win will secure a top three finish as they'll move to four wins in conference (assuming everyone else holds serve...).  A Riverside loss will drop them out of playoff contention as they'll have only two games remaining on the schedule and not be able to reach the 3-3 mark in conference that could be open for a third place automatic berth.

Southern Durham, needs a win in their final two against either East or Northern, assuming other teams in conference hold serve in order to secure a top three finish (important we say hold serve, because if others don't, then four wins in conference may not be enough!).  If both Southern and Hillside win this evening, they'll be three teams in the PAC-6 with four conference wins, with Northern slated to close out the season against the other two.

Tonight is a Playoff Night in the PAC-6

PHOTO BY DON CALLAHAN

Yes, you read that correctly, tonight is a playoff night in the PAC-6 for at least four teams in the conference. For two of them in particular, Person and Jordan, a win this evening keeps hope alive heading into next week that a playoff berth may still be available, while a loss effectively eliminates them from playoff contention in 2011. Both squads are currently sitting at 1-7 overall with three games remaining on the schedule for both teams. They both lost their endowment games earlier this year, so effectively they are at a reportable one win or 1-6 record. This means that rolling off a three game winning streak is imperative for both clubs and they happen to be the only two teams in the PAC-6 playing each other tonight that are in that situation. Riverside, also with only one reportable win has three games to go and will face Hillside this evening, while East Chapel Hill in a slightly better position, at least from the conference perspective, sits at two reportable wins, both in conference and will face Southern Durham this evening.

So why this game as opposed to others in the PAC-6? Easy, it should be the one game in the PAC-6 with the most on the line and with the highest chance of either team pulling off the victory.  Sure, Riverside is in a similar boat, they need to win this evening, but they are also playing the Hornets and the likelihood is slim that they pull the upset.  Not so similar is East Chapel Hill, they still have three games on the schedule and have two wins.  The Rockets and Falcons are the 50-50 game and for both, the chance of getting to the playoffs is all about picking up a Playoff Win - TONIGHT!

 Articles on the playoffs:

the Work Week Quarterback (WWQB) - Thoughts and Notes   [Link to Article]

Talking Playoffs and Conference Winning Percentages   [Link to Article]
When Does 4 Wins Not Equal 4 Wins?   [Link to Article]
Multiple Endowments, Oh My!   [Link to Article]


PAC-6 Match-up, Friday, 10/14/2011

Jordan (1-7 overall, 0-4 conference) at Person (1-7 overall, 0-3 conference)

The visiting Falcons are currently on a six game slide, but have arguably taken on the top of the conference with games against one win Person and Riverside still remaining to help in getting back on course.  They will also travel to Panther Creek for an out of conference match-up next week.  Compared to what they've faced so far this season you would expect that the close of the regular season sets up well for the Falcons to try and make that final push for playoff contention.  Offensively the Falcons have been sporadic at best, with 30+ point outputs against Orange, Enloe and East Chapel Hill, where they went 1-2, while only managing seven points or less in the remaining five games.  On the defensive side, teams have had success, scoring 34+ points or more in six of their contests and 21+ or more in seven or more.  The lowest point total allowed was against Northern Durham, in a 14-7 loss.

the Work Week Quarterback (WWQB) - Thoughts and Notes

PHOTO BY ROBERT WILLETT - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

the Work Week QB is Here!

The PAC-6 appears to be solidifying their top three berths for the playoffs based on the results from this past Friday.  We knew going into the games that either the race for those three spots would either become incredibly undecided or else the favorites would exert their might and put some quality distance between the top half of the conference and the bottom  half.  The only game that appeared to be completely up in the air was the Northern Durham at East Chapel Hill game [Knights and Wildcats for First Place?], where the Knights showed dominance on the ground, while the Wildcats struggled to hold onto the ball, leading to Northern equaling their conference win total from a year ago and positioning themselves strongly to at worst end up as the third place finisher, unless some crazy upsets occur over the next three weeks, and with it an automatic bid to the 2011 playoffs.

Bull City Alum

The Bull City has been fortunate to see a number of their student-athletes move on to the collegiate level in a number of sports.  The opening picture is of Jordan alum T.J. Thorpe, currently in his first year at North Carolina.  T.J. has been the primary kick-off return specialist for the Tarheels so far this season and the photo by News & Observer photographer Robert Willett is from the game against Virginia earlier this year.

Playoff Odds and Ends

We've hit the blog hard with a lot of playoff talk, so be sure to check out our recent posts to get up to speed on how it may or may not affect your favorite team.  [When Does 4 Wins Not Equal 4 Wins?], [Multiple Endowments, Oh My!], [Talking Playoffs and Conference Winning Percentages], [NCHSAA Handbook Football], and from last year, our description of how the playoff process will work - [T-Minus One Month = Playoff Time] - aside from a few changes over the past year.


Thinking Bull City Pigskin and the Playoffs

Hillside continued its dominance within the Bull City and PAC-6 in general with a convincing 36-7 victory over cross-town rival Jordan.  The Hornets still have three conference games to go with their regular season finale against Northern Durham potentially shaping up to be for the conference crown.  The Hornets sit at 6-1 overall and 3-0 in the conference and would appear to be in a strong position to nab one of the top three slots, unless what most would consider a huge upset here or there were to occur.  Assuming a complete collapse were to occur, the Hornets would finish at 6-4 and 3-3 (0.500) in conference.  With only ten games on the schedule, they'll retain their full record from the reporting perspective and if they had to go in as an at-large would be in a solid position with six reportable wins and the 0.500 conference winning percentage.  These final three games will be about playoff positioning and Bull City Pride.

Knights and Wildcats for First Place?

PHOTO BY MARK DOLEJS - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

Conference races are heating up all over the triangle and tonight should be one of those nights where the races either get just a bit closer or a few schools begin to put some real estate between them and the conference champ imposters.  In the PAC-6, conference championship positioning aside, a number of schools will be looking to simply get a win in an attempt to reach a 'qualifying berth/status' for the playoffs.  We are now reaching that tipping point where a loss this week may mean no playoffs in 2011 for a few teams.

Recent articles on playoffs:  Multiple Endowments, Oh My! and When Does 4 Wins Not Equal 4 Wins?

PAC-6 Match-up, Friday, 10/7/2011

Northern Durham (3-3 overall, 3-0 conference) at East Chapel Hill (2-5 overall, 2-0 conference)

Big question going into 2011 would be how many out there thought that with four weeks remaining in the season, you'd find these two programs with a combined 5-0 conference mark?  I'm sure the answer is a small group, but both teams have legitimate reasons for being where they are at currently.  Northern Durham has one of the best coaches in the state (history proves this out) running the Knights' Castle and when you add a defense that is looking to be more and more Northern-esque (think back to the 90's) then you have a team that in a somewhat down year in the PAC-6 can make noise.  On the opposing sideline the Wildcats have been explosive offensively, something that we knew was bound to eventually get rolling with Davis returning at quarterback as well as a number of skill athletes dotting the field.  Add spread guru Coach Renner to the mix and anytime you can put up the points they have, there is a solid chance of getting the win.

A win is important for both teams as they work to grab one of the automatic berths associated with a first through third place finish, but just as important is picking up as many wins as possible to be competitive when it comes to at-large bids.  At the moment, Northern has the advantage.  With ECH, Hillside and Southern on the schedule, you would think that a win against ECH puts them in a solid position to grab the third place finish assuming the remainder of the season doesn't play out with any major upsets in conference.  And that finish could be better as they technically control their own finish with all of the conference contenders ahead.  They also play Apex, a non-conference game that will be important on a number of levels.  The Knights' only have a 10 game schedule, which means they will retain all W's and L's from a reportable viewpoint.  Sitting at 3-3 currently they need at least one more win to get to the four wins required to be considered if they don't finish in the top three of the conference.  Looking over the current state of the state, it looks as though getting to five wins may be necessary to be considered as it was a year ago.  Assuming they can't reach five wins and perhaps only pick up a win against Apex, they'll still have a strong conference winning percentage at 0.500 if it comes down to that element of the equation.

East Chapel Hill is definitely in the must-win situation this evening and the reality is that they have a team that can win this game!  With only two wins on the season and games remaining against all conference foes, it is imperative that they pick up the win tonight as they have Southern, Hillside and Person to close out the season. A win tonight puts them in a strong position to angle for the third place finish at worst and similar to Northern a first or second place finish as they control they own destiny.  The only way to get to four wins for the Wildcats is for them to get four wins in conference and if that occurs unless some crazy upsets occur, it's hard to imagine them not getting the third place automatic qualifier bid and ending up in an at-large position.  Important point is that tonight's game is big for the Wildcats, not only for the 2011 squad, but for a program in general that has struggled to get to the post-season for some time.

Photographs courtesy of newsobserver.com (The News & Observer)

When Does 4 Wins Not Equal 4 Wins?

PHOTO BY CHRIS SEWARD - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

Glad you asked, or, perhaps you didn't because for a number of years now reaching that magical four win plateau in North Carolina high school football has meant at least a shot of making the big dance the first few weeks of November.  Well, based on recent changes by the NCHSAA and the new 10 games schedules (or 11 game schedule) in 11 weeks, this hard and fast rule of getting to 4 wins has become just a bit more convoluted.  For those coaches and administrators that read through the NCHSAA handbook prior to this season or maybe more importantly prior to deciding to either add that endowment game or not, this is probably not that big of deal - even more so if they let everyone else that didn't have a handbook know what they found out.  For those that didn't read it thoroughly and thought the high school football world of 2011 was on a standard operating procedure of 2010 and prior - well, today may not be what you would call a good day.

So what is this big change, how does it deal with the mythical four wins and why should anyone care you ask?  It's all about the endowment and that '11th' game.  To be blunt - it doesn't really exist.  See, prior to this year, if you played an eleven game schedule with an endowment game you had the opportunity to 'get-rid-of' any non-conference game on your schedule to get you down to the 10 game reportable schedule for playoff consideration.  This meant that if you played Team X as the endowment game and won, played four other teams in non-conference and won all of them but one (putting you at 4-1 in non-conference play), then when it came to reporting that 10 game schedule you could ditch that one non-conference loss and effectively be 4-0 in non-conference play, thanks to your endowment game!  So what's the problem you say?  Well, over the past year things changed and teams are no longer able to operate under the above mentioned criteria.  Specifically, for teams that played an endowment game, Win or Lose, that game and only that game must be dropped for the 10 game reportable schedule.  What that means is that four wins, might just mean three wins and not the four wins you might have been expecting!  In the situation provided above, the team would have to keep the 3-1 record in the non-conference games and drop the win they picked up in the endowment game.  For teams that lost their endowment game, no big deal, but for those that won that game - or perhaps for teams that are currently on the bubble of trying to reach four wins and have yet to play their endowment game...it means that game in essence doesn't exist from the perspective of reaching the four win plateau.  I should add that the endowment game may be of importance when it comes to tie-breakers in the seeding process, but aside from that element and historical record books, the game will not be counted towards playoff qualification purposes.

J. Mike Blake at the Cary News [LINK] has a story up directed at this new change as does Earl Vaughan out at the Fayetteville Observer [LINK].  Links are provided for both for additional details.  In addition, the NCHSAA Football handbook is referenced [LINK].

The implications of this new rule are many, first it means that trying to predict who will make the playoffs, aside from the automatic qualifiers is going to be incredibly tough, unless you have a detailed schedule of every AAAA team, but also have verification of which non-conference game on their schedule was the endowment game.  This is important because only the endowment game is removed from that 11 game schedule.  I would be hard pressed to simply find which of the non-conference opponents for the PAC-6 were the endowment games, much less the rest of the 99 teams that play AAAA classification ball.  Second, it means that there are teams that currently have a certain number of wins, but in fact actually have one less win then the record is showing.  In the past this was never really the case, unless the team had won all of their non-conference games and played an endowment.  With the recent change, that is not necessarily the case and knowing which of the games was the endowment is ultra-important.  Third, for the small group of teams out there that have yet to play their endowment game and may perhaps be in a situation where they are still trying to reach that four win plateau, this may or may not be an eye-opener for them.  My assumption and certainly hope is that for teams in this situation, all those involved knew and understood this fact and so this isn't really news, rather just some additional clarification.  Regardless, the 'you-can-only-drop your endowment game' rule is something that will certainly add to the already complicated and layered system that we call the North Carolina high school football playoffs.

Photographs courtesy of newsobserver.com (The News & Observer)