Tick-tock-tick tock, the time is approaching for the 2010 playoff picture to come into full focus this upcoming Saturday and prognostications are flooding area media outlets as folks attempt to grapple the complexity that is the NCHSAA playoff system. Entering last week's games four teams in the PAC-6 appeared certain to receive bids to the playoffs, while two teams were definitely out of the mix. One team, Person, had a sliver of a chance of making the field at less than a 1% chance. Earlier this year we put out a quick primer on the playoff system and we're glad to see so many have found it of interest as it's been one of the top reads over the past month on the blog [T-Minus One Month = Playoff Time]. Each week, subsequent to our initial post we've put out a new breakdown of how teams in the conference were doing and how possible conference championship and ultimate playoff seedings might take place [Selection Saturday (2 Weeks) - PAC-6 Playoff Picture & More].
Winners last week in the PAC-6 included Hillside, Southern Durham and Person (Jordan was idle). East Chapel Hill, Riverside and Northern Durham were on the losing sideline.
Although we like to write about the PAC-6 and the playoffs, the definitive statistical source on the playoffs is over at Drew Pasteur's site, Fantastic50, and when you know someone has great material - it's a good thing to use it to help explain the more focused story of the PAC-6. Drew continues to produce some outstanding material on almost every aspect of the playoffs, including information on probabilities for at-large berths and in recent days information concerning actual projected brackets. The newly updated playoff bubble page for considering at-large berths indicates the following (note the win totals I'll discuss are reportable wins).
Six reportable wins should get you an at-large selection, regardless of conference win total (pertinent for current six win Jordan).
The only other team vying for an at-large berth at this point in the process is Person, currently with three wins reportable and one conference win. According to Drew a four win reportable team with two conference wins has a 0.1% chance of making the playoffs, the same as week ago.
Hillside (10-0 overall, 9-0 reportable, 5-0 conference; 1 game remaining, @Northern Durham) - It doesn't get much better than the current scenario for those that enjoy the potential for intrigue and complete wackiness to possibly ensue in the PAC-6. The Hornets, after running to a statement victory over the Wildcats last week, continue to control their own destiny for the conference championship, but their first slip-up of the year could be much more significant than a week ago, due to Southern Durham's victory over previously undefeated in conference Northern Durham. With a Northern victory last week, this Friday's game would have been simple, the winner would have claimed the conference championship outright and the #1 seed from the conference, while the loser would have walked away number two in both regards with Southern sitting at third. But with the Spartans victory the potential exists given a Northern victory this week for a three-way-tie at the top of the conference and the result could be anyone's guess - as it would be determined by random draw.
At the moment, the Hornets sit at 5-0 in conference play, Northern is 4-1 with a loss to Southern and Southern is 5-1 with a loss to Hillside. A Knight win would take them to 5-1 and drop the Hornets to 5-1, placing three teams with 5-1 conference records and eliminating a head-to-head tiebreaker scenario as each team would have knocked off one of the others, but none would have knocked off two of the three. A similar situation existed back in 2000 and 2008 and were handled through a random drawing where each head coach pulled for their order of finish. In 2000, the event took place on the Friday night after the games had been played between the head coaches of Northern Durham (Coach Merrill), Jordan (Coach Brown) and Chapel Hill (Coach Wolfe) and the order was established as Jordan #1, Northern Durham #2 and Chapel Hill #3. It was a tough pill for Coach Wolfe and the Tigers to swallow as not only did they lose the draw they also lost a chance to play in the post-season with a 9-1-1 overall record which included a tie to Apex and a loss to Northern Durham. This was in the pre-subdivision landscape of the playoffs and the PAC-6 only had two bids to the playoffs (other conferences in the area had three and in fact the PAC-6 had three the following year, a rotational system was in place). It's tough to imagine that team not getting the opportunity to play based in part on a random draw (team included future NCSU and Minnesota Viking Dovonte Edwards). A similar random draw took place in 2008, although at that time sub-division had occurred and Hillside, Chapel Hill and Southern Durham all made the playoffs.
With the potential for the three-way tie to exist and the fact that information has to be submitted to the NCHSAA in an expeditious manner after completion of the games on Friday night, there is a high probability that sometime this week, quite possibly already, the random drawing has taken place for order of finish in the eventuality that the three-way time takes place. Whether or not this information is known to the head coaches or whether or not they actually personally took part other than observing the actual draw is unknown although I would imagine based on previous experience that they have or will take part in at the very least observing the process.
In this scenario, all three teams would be named co-conference champions and the order of finish in the conference would be established based on the random draw. Looking specifically at Hillside, a victory over Northern or a loss and subsequent draw for first in the conference would net the Hornets a similar slot in the playoff seeding hierarchy as they would be in the pool of first place finishers. The difference would exist in their reportable record, 10-0 with a victory over Northern and 9-1 with a loss. Currently, Drew Pasteur is projecting a Hillside victory and placement in the small classification 4A playoffs as one of three teams in this pool of first place finishers along with Fayetteville 71st and New Bern. In this situation, all three teams are projected to have reportable records of 10-0 which would mean a random draw would be used to order them 1-3 in the 4A Eastern side of the bracket. Currently, Drew has given Hillside the #3 seed and based on geographical location placed them in the Mideast Pod along with #1 seed 71st. In this situation, for the eight team Mideast Pod, Hillside would be the second highest seeded team (behind 71st) and be guaranteed two home playoff games before heading to play 71st in the third round if seeds held form. It is important to note that the random draw for seeding could put Hillside first and if this were the case then Hillside would be guaranteed four playoff games at home if the seeds held, with a third round game against 71st and a fourth round game against New Bern. There are other permutations, but I'll let you visit Drew's site to explore that a bit more. The alternative situation would be Hillside with the #1 seed from the conference due to the random draw and with a reportable 9-1 record. In this case they would automatically fall into that #3 seed for the eastern side of the bracket given 71st and New Bern both having projected 10-0 reportable records.
Other alternatives include, Hillside having a reportable 9-1 record and falling to the #2 seed by random draw in conference. In this situation, as they are projected to be in the 4A Mideast, they would be pooled with other #2 seeds which currently include Southeast Raleigh at 8-2 and New Hanover at 7-3. In this situation they would capture the highest seed in the #2 finishers pool which would place them at #4 in the eastern side of the bracket. Either Southern Durham or Northern Durham, whichever took the #1 random draw would be one slot ahead of them as the #3 seed in the eastern side of the bracket.
The final alternative is Hillside at 9-1 and pulling the #3 seed by random draw. In this situation they would be pooled with the other #3 finishers which currently include E.E. Smith at 6-4, Dudley at 8-2 and Clayton at 6-4. In this situation both Northern Durham and Southern Durham would be seeded ahead of them, but Hillside would capture the top seed in the #3 finishers based on record. This would place them as the #7 seed in the eastern side of the bracket and within the Mideast they would be the third highest seed, giving them a first round game at home, but putting them on the road in the second game if seeds held form.
Northern Durham (5-5 overall, 5-4 reportable, 4-1 conference; 1 game remaining, Hillside) - Northern controls their own destiny with regards to capturing at least a share of the PAC-6 title, while a loss assures them a third place finish in conference behind Hillside and Southern Durham. Read Hillside's breakdown to learn more about the situation that might take place if Northern were to win and force a random draw for seeding purposes.
At the moment, Drew is projecting that Northern will lose to Hillside which would automatically place them as the third place finisher. In this situation he is projecting them to be in the 4A Mideast and the #10 seed overall, the last of the third place finishers seeded with their projected 5-5 reportable record. They are projected to have a first round home game, playing #11 seed Lee County, although in this projection the #4 seeds which are essentially all of the at-large teams all have projected 6-4 reportable records including Lee County, Terry Sanford, Purnell Swett, Southeast Guilford, JH Rose and Harnett Central - point - Northern could play any of those teams that are currently being projected in the Mideast as they would be seeded randomly from 11 through 16. They include Lee County, Terry Sanford, Purnell Swett and Southeast Guilford.
In a situation where Northern wins on Friday night and also obtains the #1 seed in the random draw they would be the last first place finisher seeded placing them at the #3 overall seed behind 71st and New Bern and have the potential for two home playoff games.
Winning on Friday night and obtaining the second place finish would also seed them last of the second place finishers currently projected (Southeast Raleigh and New Hanover) placing them as the #6 overall seed in the east and placing them as the third highest seed in the Mideast with one guaranteed home game.
The final scenario involves them winning against Hillside and taking the third place finish. In this situation they would be in a similar position to losing on Friday with the exception being their reportable record at 6-4 as opposed to 5-5. This would place them in a tie with currently projected #3 finishers E.E. Smith and Clayton and depending on that draw could place them anywhere from the 8th through 10th overall seed. In the pod system it would ultimately place them in the same place, the fourth top seed in the Mideast and a guaranteed first round game.
Southern Durham (5-6 overall, 5-5 reportable, 5-5 conference; regular season completed) - After defeating the Knights last week, at worst the Spartans have forced the prospects of a three-way tie for first and a guaranteed second place finish if Hillside wins. See the breakdown in the Hillside section to learn more about this scenario. If Northern loses on Friday night to Hillside the Spartans will be the second place finisher in the conference outright.
Currently, Drew Pasteur's projections has Hillside winning, which gives Southern the second place finish and gives them the #6 overall seed in the east of the 4A playoffs. The are currently slated in the 4A East as the fourth highest seed in that bracket giving them a home game in the first round against E.E. Smith.
A Northern win and a Spartan #1 finish based on random draw would give them the #3 overall seed in the east and place them as the second highest seed in the 4A East behind only New Bern, guaranteeing them two first round games if seeds held form.
A #2 random draw would place them in the same situation as initially described given a Hillside victory.
A #3 random draw would give them a #10 overall seed and drop them to the sixth highest seed in the 4A East and no guarantee of a home game in the playoffs.
Jordan (6-4 overall, 6-3 reportable, 2-3 conference; 1 game remaining, @Riverside) - The Falcons look to be in a strong position to take an at-large berth and will be pooled with all of the other at-large qualifiers. Their reportable win total will be important in this situation as it will either bump them up or drop them in the pecking order or seeding making the game against Riverside potentially important.
Currently the Falcons are being projected into the larger classification 4AA on the eastern side of the bracket. Drew is projecting them to win against Riverside and be an at-large with a 7-3 reportable record. In this situation, they would be the second highest seed in the at-large group, but based on geography would be placed in the 4AA Mideast as the #13 overall seed and the eighth seed in the Mideast. Seeds #14, #15 and #16 are all currently projected to be in the 4AA East. Currently this projection has the Falcons going on the road for the duration of the playoffs assuming all seeds hold up. Their first round opponent is projected to be Fuquay-Varina, currently the top seed in the 4AA Mideast.
If the Falcons were to lose to Riverside, they would have a reportable record of 6-4 and could stay as the #13 seed, but could also fall to the #14 or #15 seed in the current projections, but based on the way the pods are set-up, this wouldn't matter for Jordan as they would still be slated in the final spot in the Mideast.
An interesting tid-bit. Currently Drew is projecting Fuquay to win on Friday and Panther Creek to lose to Cary. If Panther Creek were to win, they would take the #1 seed in the Tri-9 and they would essentially take Fuquay's position atop the 4AA Mideast (currently with the projected Panther Creek loss they are projected as an at-large and the #12 seed overall and seventh highest seed in the 4AA Mideast). This is interesting as this could potentially create a first round rematch between Panther Creek and Jordan in the first round, a game the Falcons lost at home 30-17 earlier this year.
Person (3-7 overall, 3-6 reportable, 1-4 conference; 1 game remaining, @ECH) - Person has a slight chance of making the playoffs if they were to win against East Chapel Hill on Friday. At less than 1%, they are currently not being projected in the playoffs by Drew Pasteur.
Riverside (1-9 overall, 1-8 reportable, 1-4 conference; 1 game remaining, Jordan) - Riverside has been eliminated from playoff contention.
East Chapel Hill (1-9 overall, 1-8 reportable, 0-5 conference; 1 game remaining, Person) - East Chapel Hill has been eliminated from playoff contention.
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