RDU-EXP Breakdown (Week 4 Playoffs) - Panther Creek visits Wake Forest-Rolesville - Wake County is Going to the Big Dance!

PHOTO BY TRAVIS LONG

In writing up this breakdown, our third RDU EXP-anded breakdown of the year I did something a bit different, I started from the end and worked backwards.  Why do I bring this up, in part because it's all there, in the breakdown, so I don't think much needs to be said up here in the front-matter.  I don't think the local area could be in a better position when it comes to putting either Panther Creek or Wake Forest-Rolesville into the state championship game next weekend and whomever stands victorious this evening will have earned it and should in turn have earned the support of every high school football fan in the area!  Both of these teams are solid across the board and that isn't simply some off the cuff comment.  They are both very strong in certain areas while above average in almost every other.  At the same time, they both have their Achilles' Heel and hopefully tonight, for the sake of a game to remember for the ages, neither of them will find themselves in their Trojan War, but rather in a clash of the titans where both the wise and strong prevail.

I don't know about you - but I'm ready for this game to get going...so let's get started!


Where They Stand Entering the Game

Panther Creek (13 - 1 overall, 7 - 1 conference)

Wins - Leesville Road (4A), Charles E. Jordan (4A), Sanderson (4A), Fuquay-Varina (4A), Apex (4A), Holly Springs (4A), Green Hope (4A), Athens Drive (4A), Lee County (4A), Cary (4A), South View (4A), Fuquay-Varina (4A) [Playoffs], Seventy-First (4A); PF - 417, PA - 195

Losses - Middle Creek (4A); PF - 21, PA - 42

Strength of Schedule - 40 of 98 4A teams (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)

Best Win - Seventy-First.  Sure there were the two come from behind wins over the Bengals, the victory over Cary that captured the Tri-Nine crown, but going down to Fayetteville and knocking off one of the legends in coaching in the form of Coach Paroli and his juggernaut in the Falcons is top billing.  The Catamounts were on the ropes against the Falcons and did what they've done on a regular basis this year, come back and do it without a sense of urgency, almost as though it was routine.  They managed over 4 YPC and almost 10 YPA offensively against a strong 71st defense, while holding the potent Falcon rushing attack to just over 4 YPC and only 4 YPA.  Taking everything into consideration this was about as complete a victory as a team could have on the biggest stage up to tonight's game.

Previously - Cary.  It would be easy to call their early conference victory over the Bengals their best win of the year, but the reality is that even after that win, the final regular season game against Cary had all of the pressure of a full conference record riding on the Catamounts back.  Cary had played strong defense throughout the year and when they had their rush attack working they were a tough out, something that once again the Bengals learned a week ago in the first round of the playoffs as they narrowly escaped with a 6-0 victory over the Imps.  Panther Creek was held in check offensively when they played the Imps and clearly were more proficient in the passing game against the Bengals, but defensively, the Catamounts made the plays and limited the Cary offense enough to win a tight game that had everything riding on it - when everyone knew everything was riding on it.

Best Loss - Middle Creek. It's tough to necessarily call the loss to Middle Creek a quality loss other than the fact that the Mustangs have moved on to the second round of the playoffs after a thrilling overtime victory against Leesville Road a week ago.  The Catamounts were shut down in the running game, managing just 26 yards on 31 carries, well below their season average of roughly 4.5 YPC.  To make the game somewhat respectable on the scoreboard, Panther Creek did move the ball well through the air and saw all three of their scores come via the pass.  Defensively, they allowed the Mustangs almost 100 yards on the ground, but limited to some extent the potent passing attack of the Mustangs.

Wake Forest-Rolesville (13 - 1 overall, 5 - 1 conference)
Wins - Riverside (4A), East Wake (4A), Southern Durham (4A), Clayton (4A), Northern Durham (4A), Enloe (4A), Broughton (4A), Sanderson (4A), Millbrook (4A) [regular season], Leesville Road (4A), Millbrook (4A) [Playoffs], Wakefield (4A) [Playoffs], Garner (4A); PF - 370, PA - 119
Losses - Wakefield (4A) [regular season]; PF - 21, PA - 31
Strength of Schedule - 53 of 98 4A teams (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)

Best Win - Garner.  This one is easier than you might think.  In my opinion, the Trojans were one of the top teams in the area going into this game.  After a rough beginning to the season with back-to-back losses the Trojans were rolling and in many ways were a very similar team to the Cougars as they were run dominated, albeit from an I-set backfield.  But in last week's game, the Trojans were to put it simply reduced to a shell of themselves, managing just under 2 YPC and an average 6 YPA through the air.  On the flip side, the Cougars did what they wanted to do - they did their game plan to the tune of over 7 YPC and then throwing the ball just three times but managing almost 9 YPA.  Not much else needs to be said.

Best Loss - Wakefield.  Offensively the Cougars moved the ball well on the ground at 6.5 YPC and almost 300 yards in the game.  Defensively, they held the Wolverines rush attack out of their spread to under 2 YPC.  But after a strong first half where they were up by 11 going into the intermission, things began to fall apart and the Wolverines tallied 21 unanswered to take the win.

Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look

Common Opponents - After a total of 28 games between the two teams, they have two common opponents - Leesville Road and Sanderson.  Panther Creek played the Pride to open the season while the Cougars played them the final game of the regular season with the conference crown hanging in the balance.  Both teams won by exactly six points, PC 19-13 and WFR 20-14.  The Catamount offense faired a bit better against the Pride averaging 4.7 YPC to the Cougars' 4.2 YPC.  Just about a half a yard better than their season average for the Catamounts, while the Cougars were held to roughly 1.3 YPC less than their average.  Through the air, the Cougars managed zero total yards while the Catamounts were right on their season average of 7.9 YPA.  Defensively, the Catamounts had one of their best performances of the season against the run, allowing the Pride just under 2 YPC, while the Cougars gave up 4.4 YPC, almost two yards over their season average.  Through the air, the Pride managed almost 7 YPA against Panther Creek and just over 4 YPA against the Cougars.  This was the one area where the Cougars faired better on average.

Against Sanderson, both teams picked up convincing victories, PC 31-0 and WFR 42-13.  Both teams ran the ball for more yards on average than their season average and they did the same through the air.  Defensively, they also faired better than their averages in all four slots with the exception of the Cougars rush defense that gave up just about a half a yard more per carry than their season average (still a small amount).

Looking at the information from these common opponents, you can see that both teams are strong, but the advantage goes to Panther Creek.

Statistically Speaking - Panther Creek is averaging just over 31 points a game, while giving up just under 17 a game.  The Catamounts have scored a total of 438 points on the year and have posted 19 or more points in 13 of their 14 games.  Their lowest point total this year was against Cary (10 points).  They've scored 30 or more points in 10 of their 14 games.  Defensively they have posted three shut-outs and added another three games where they allowed seven points or less.  The Cougars are averaging just under 28 points a game and are allowing the opposition just under 11 a game.  They have scored in double digits every game this year and have scored 21 or more points in every game but three on the year (Broughton, Leesville Road and Millbrook).  They've scored 30 or more points five times this year.  The Cougars defense has been one of the best in the area, posting five shut-outs and adding another two games where they allowed nine or fewer points.  Only three teams have scored more than 17 points on the Cougars this year (N. Durham, Garner and Wakefield).

The Catamount offense has been one of the most balanced in the area which is evident when you see that they've rushed for 2200 yards and passed for 2347 yards this year.  They are averaging just over 157 yards a game on the ground and just under 168 yards through the air.  They have rushed the ball roughly two times to every pass they've thrown.  They've been efficient moving the ball as well, averaging 4.6 YPC and roughly 8 YPA.  Panther Creek has rushed for 100 or more yards in all but two games (Athens Drive and Middle Creek) and have posted three games over 200 yards on the ground.  Through the air they've thrown for 100 or more yards in all but one game (Apex), while passing for 200 or more yards in five games.  Interestingly, they have yet to rush or throw for 300 yards in a game, yet have still managed to average almost 32 points a game - another indicator of balance in the offense as well as efficiency.

Defensively the Catamounts have not been stellar, but have certainly pulled their load to make them competitive each week.  They are allowing just over 144 yards a game on the ground and just under 91 yards a game through the air.  Their strength has been against the pass more than the run although after playing Fuquay twice this year it's understandable that their rushing statistics would take a hit.  On average they are allowing 4.5 YPC and 5.3 YPA.  They've held six of their opponents to 100 yards or less rushing and done the same against the pass nine times.  No team has thrown for more than 200 yards on them, while Fuquay and Athens Drive both rushed for over 300 yards against them.

Panther Creek has been balanced when it's come to putting the ball in the end zone, managing 29 rushing scores to 25 passing scores.  That amounts to roughly two rushing touchdowns per game and almost two passing scores a game.  They have yet to score on special teams yet this year and have put up three scores via their defense.  The Catamount defense is allowing just over one touchdown a game on the ground and one additional score through the air.  They have also given up one special teams score, but following in-line with the high quality of offensive play we've come to expect from them this year, they have yet to turn the ball over and allow a defensive score simultaneously.

Wake Forest-Rolesville has been known for one thing over the past five to eight years and that has been a dominance on the ground with their wing-t offense.  Nothing has changed this year as they have racked up 3660 yards on the ground this year for a strong 261 YPG at a chain moving 5.5 YPC.  They have rushed for 100 or more yards in every game this year and 200 or more in 12 of their 14 games.  They've also rushed for 300 or more yards in five games with a season high against Wakefield in the playoffs (390 yards).  Wait - talk about passing...actually, the Cougars prefer not to, but I'll indulge.  They have managed 489 yards through the air this year, but in-line with a dominating rush attack their average per attempt is a strong 7.6 YPA, indicative of the type of play-action success that comes from a team that forces the majority of opponents to fill the box and place corners on islands.  The Cougars have not thrown for over 100 yards in a game this season and I'm sure if you asked them, they would be just fine with that fact.

The Cougar defense is one of the strongest in the area touting a rush defense that has allowed just 865 total yards over 14 games!  That amounts to just under 67 YPG and a wall-like 2.6 YPC.  Simple math on this one, you run the ball three times on the Cougars, on average you are only going to pick up 7.3 yards - go ahead run it one more time, you still only get to 10.4; or in other words, you might make a first down!!  The pass defense has been almost as good, allowing around 115 yards per game and only 5 YPA.  And remember this is after playing some potentially strong passing units in the likes of Wakefield, Leesville Road and Broughton this year.  Looking game-by-game these numbers become even more impressive.  The Cougars have allowed just three teams to rush for 100 or more yards on them this year and have limited 11 of their opponents to 75 yards or less rushing!  Through the air, they've held five of their opponents to 100 yards or less and only one team, Wakefield, has passed for 200 yards or more on them.

It's no surprise that when it comes to scoring, the Cougars prefer the asphalt highway as opposed to the friendly skies.  They've racked up over 36 rushing scores this year while augmenting these scores with eight additional scores through the air.  On the ground, they've been scary good - allowing under 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game.  Put that in perspective that means for every two games they play - only one of their opponents is likely to score on the ground and when they do, it will be just one touchdown.  Things stay bad for the opposition when it comes through the air as they are allowing just one touchdown per game.  They have also allowed one special teams score on the year and given up a touchdown while the offense was on the field once.

All Those Other Items

PHOTO BY MICHAEL MCLOONE

The first thing I think about in looking at this game is the overall balance of the Panther Creek offense in comparison to the lack of balance in the Wake Forest-Rolesville offense.  Sure, the Cougars have been and are dominating when it comes to rushing the ball, but the reality can not be hidden - their passing game is 'limited.'  The Catamounts' balance on the offensive side of the ball and efficiency in both areas is tough to defend and the scheme makes it even more daunting to keep up with.  For the Cougars, they've done just fine in an overall sense with their run heavy attack and occasional we got you play action passing attack, but the limited nature of that scheme can be a major detriment depending on how the early and mid game play out.  For the Cougars, special teams, defense and time of possession are huge, even more so than Panther Creek.  Creating favorable field position, playing tough defense and holding onto the ball and scoring makes the run heavy attack very tough to defeat and that is why in large part they have just one loss on the season and have been arguably the poster child of dominance in Wake County over the recent past.  But where they have run into trouble has been against teams that were capable of breaking through and putting the Cougars in that come from behind position that is not in-line with their modus operandi.

Taking a step further down this road is the fact that the balance and efficiency of the Panther Creek attack allows them to play from anywhere on the field, both literally and figuratively.  They can play from behind just as well as they play from ahead or even and in all honesty nothing changes for them.  They've had to come back to win games in a number of situations this year and when you look at it in retrospect, it seems to have been on par with opening the game up with a consistent, efficient, scoring drive.  On the flip side, because the Cougars passing attack is limited and used sparingly in the early game, getting the Cougars down by two scores or more can put them in a real bind.  A bind that over the past few years have led to exits late in the playoffs.

Familiarity will be important tonight and Panther Creek although they have not played the Cougars have played a similar offense in the form of Fuquay-Varina.  Better yet, they've played them twice.  Better yet, they've been hit hard on the ground, something they will probably see no matter how well they play tonight, yet they've defeated the Bengals twice.  In their second contest against Fuquay, after a tough first half, they completely shut-down the Bengals rushing attack in the second half, in large part due to aggressive, attacking gap sound defense.  If they can pull that off tonight from the opening snap - the Cougars will be in real trouble.  On the flip side, the Cougars have yet to play a team as balanced and well designed as the Catamounts.  Sure, Leesville Road is quality, but they aren't PC and none of WFR other competition was close.
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Both teams will put quality athletes and an overall strong eleven out on the field tonight, but one of Panther Creek's strengths is the fact that at every skill position offensively they have a player on average as good or better than most other players in the area at that position, aside from the superstars that are out there.  Furthermore, the best overall player to take the field will be Panther Creek quarterback Kameron Bryant.  He is hands down in my opinion either the best or tied for the best (See Vad Lee - Hillside) high school quarterback in the area.  One of his strengths is his ability to make bad things turn into even plays for his offense or the big play and he is quality when it comes to spreading the ball to his options offensively.  Why is this such a big deal - because this year the WFR defense has put one of their top players, Marcus Jones on the best option that the opposition's offense has had on the field and in general he's pulled his weight and limited that portion of the offense.  For tonight's game, if you take Johnson out of the mix, Williams is there or Eisner or Douglas or Beilinson.  Get my point.  All that said, athletes abound on the other side of the ball as well for the Cougars and the rush attack does a great job of spreading the wealth and forcing defenses to stay honest against the A, B, C and D gaps.

The Final Analysis

There are a lot of different ways to go with this game and to be absolutely honest with you, I'm a Panther Creek homer, why?  Because when I watch their offense, I can't help but salivate.  They do so many things right and moreover it is the closest thing you'll see in our area to an offense that you might see on Saturday or even Sunday.  But, homerism aside, I'm trying to do my best to be unbiased as I look at this game and looking at the Cougars defense, their recent history and the beauty of their execution you very quickly get rid of any bias and are left with simply the evidence.  Both of these teams are very good football teams and both of them are deserving of representing the East in the state championship game next Saturday at Carter Finley Stadium to take on either Butler or Vance.  But only one will get that opportunity and I have every reason to believe that it will be a war tonight to decide whom.

This is what I believe after seeing both of these teams no less than five times this year.  Both teams should score tonight and it's hard to believe that it will be a low scoring affair.  Their offenses are simply too good on both sides.  As I mentioned earlier the only caveat to this is how Panther Creek played against Fuquay in the second half of their playoff match-up two weeks ago.  If the Catamounts can play that aggressively and with a high level of physicality while also staying sound from a gap perspective, while their offense is able to move the ball this could be a Catamount party.  But the Cougars defense is very good; very, very good.  And you would think that they will do a solid job of keeping both Douglas and Bryant in check when it comes to running the ball.  If this happens then the question will be whether Bryant as he has done all year can simply play his normal game - which is in no way normal - and manage the Catamount offense in both the good times and bad.

For the Cougars, can they do the three things I mentioned earlier, play field position through solid special teams, play strong defense and hold onto the ball while scoring.  If they can do those three things then this game will be right where they want it whether Panther Creek is scoring or not and we'll have a game fitting of an Eastern final.

DFBFan's Pick - Panther Creek (13-1) vs. Wake Forest-Rolesville (13-1)
Panther Creek - 30
Wake Forest-Rolesville - 21