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| PHOTO BY RAY BLACK III - THE NEWS & OBSERVER |
In the following capsules (this post and others to follow and already submitted), we'll briefly hit on the 4A conferences around the area and talk playoff implications for this evening's games.
TRI-9
Fuquay, Panther Creek, Middle Creek, Cary or Athens Drive; who do you have winning the Tri-Nine? Good question, perhaps, but I have to admit it's an easy one to ask as it seems that every year the conference is typically the one that has the most riding on the final few games of the year and the potential for a three way tie that results in the dreaded random draw is always lurking near-by. This year appears to be no different. Fuquay-Varina and Panther Creek both sit at 5-1 in conference play, although FV holds the head-to-head tie breaker over the Catamounts. Close behind are Middle Creek at 4-1 and Cary and Athens Drive both at 3-2. And oh by the way - don't count out a Holly Springs squad at 2-3 and still three conference games to go!
Fuquay is definitely in the drivers seat as they have Holly Springs this evening and then will finish the season against a 1-5 Apex squad next week. If the Bengals can close out with two wins, they'll be conference champs assuming that both PC and Middle Creek don't also finish with only one loss (read random draw) or if only Panther Creek equals them as the head-to-head is securely in the Bengals' den. Worst case scenario for the Bengals would be to have PC lose once more in conference and have Middle Creek win out. In that situation the Mustangs would snag the title. Holly Springs could create some turmoil if the battle of the double-wing/ wing-t oriented offenses concludes with the upset this evening. The Hawks need two more wins to get to four on the season, but if they can pull that off, it's possible that they could find themselves in a tie for third place in the conference. Either way, every game in these three is uber-important for the Hawks as they close out 2011.
Panther Creek will take on those feisty defensive minded Imps and although the Catamounts are not the same version of what we saw a year ago, the reality is that they are winning ball games and control their own destiny to secure at worst a number three slot in the conference even if Middle Creek and Fuquay finish at 5-1. The toughest opponent on PC's schedule is arguably who they'll face this evening, so there should be no let-down at all as they battle the Imps. They'll close with a non-conference game against Jordan next week and then Apex the last week of the regular season. Cary has work to do and it starts tonight! At 3-2 in the conference and losses to Middle Creek and Fuquay, tie-breakers aren't helping them any so defeating Panther Creek is a must if they have any shot at getting into the upper echelon of the conference. With five reportable wins and Green Hope and Athens Drive to close out the year, you would think that at least one win against their final three is realistic and with six wins reportable and their conference mark, they should be safely in the playoff fold, even without an automatic bid.
Middle Creek and Athens Drive is the other head-liner of the evening as the Mustangs at 4-1 battle the Jags at 3-2. Middle Creek needs the win to keep pace with the top and have the important head-to-head tie breaker against Fuquay. The chance still exists for them to snag the first place finish, regardless of what Fuquay does (assuming Panther Creek falters at least once more in conference). If Middle Creek, Panther Creek and Fuquay all finish with one loss then we'll have the random draw in play - joy! As for Athens Drive, they find themselves in a similar position to Cary with one big exception. They only have four reportable wins compared to Cary's five. Picking up another win and to be honest, two more wins is important for the Jags to be in a secure position as an at-large squad, not even considering conference finish. After tonight, the Jags will take on Lee County and Cary to close out 2011.
Green Hope and Lee County close out the slate for this evening and for the Falcons, with two wins (although it's unclear if one of those was an endowment win) they'll need either two or three more wins to be eligible for the post-season. They have the Yellow Jackets tonight and then will close with Cary and Panther Creek, definitely a tough draw to close it out. Lee County is in a bit more defined region with two reportable wins, they need two out of their remaining three to be playoff eligible. That may be enough - but I would be more inclined to say that picking up three wins and getting to five reportable is what will be needed.
Fuquay is definitely in the drivers seat as they have Holly Springs this evening and then will finish the season against a 1-5 Apex squad next week. If the Bengals can close out with two wins, they'll be conference champs assuming that both PC and Middle Creek don't also finish with only one loss (read random draw) or if only Panther Creek equals them as the head-to-head is securely in the Bengals' den. Worst case scenario for the Bengals would be to have PC lose once more in conference and have Middle Creek win out. In that situation the Mustangs would snag the title. Holly Springs could create some turmoil if the battle of the double-wing/ wing-t oriented offenses concludes with the upset this evening. The Hawks need two more wins to get to four on the season, but if they can pull that off, it's possible that they could find themselves in a tie for third place in the conference. Either way, every game in these three is uber-important for the Hawks as they close out 2011.
Panther Creek will take on those feisty defensive minded Imps and although the Catamounts are not the same version of what we saw a year ago, the reality is that they are winning ball games and control their own destiny to secure at worst a number three slot in the conference even if Middle Creek and Fuquay finish at 5-1. The toughest opponent on PC's schedule is arguably who they'll face this evening, so there should be no let-down at all as they battle the Imps. They'll close with a non-conference game against Jordan next week and then Apex the last week of the regular season. Cary has work to do and it starts tonight! At 3-2 in the conference and losses to Middle Creek and Fuquay, tie-breakers aren't helping them any so defeating Panther Creek is a must if they have any shot at getting into the upper echelon of the conference. With five reportable wins and Green Hope and Athens Drive to close out the year, you would think that at least one win against their final three is realistic and with six wins reportable and their conference mark, they should be safely in the playoff fold, even without an automatic bid.
Middle Creek and Athens Drive is the other head-liner of the evening as the Mustangs at 4-1 battle the Jags at 3-2. Middle Creek needs the win to keep pace with the top and have the important head-to-head tie breaker against Fuquay. The chance still exists for them to snag the first place finish, regardless of what Fuquay does (assuming Panther Creek falters at least once more in conference). If Middle Creek, Panther Creek and Fuquay all finish with one loss then we'll have the random draw in play - joy! As for Athens Drive, they find themselves in a similar position to Cary with one big exception. They only have four reportable wins compared to Cary's five. Picking up another win and to be honest, two more wins is important for the Jags to be in a secure position as an at-large squad, not even considering conference finish. After tonight, the Jags will take on Lee County and Cary to close out 2011.
Green Hope and Lee County close out the slate for this evening and for the Falcons, with two wins (although it's unclear if one of those was an endowment win) they'll need either two or three more wins to be eligible for the post-season. They have the Yellow Jackets tonight and then will close with Cary and Panther Creek, definitely a tough draw to close it out. Lee County is in a bit more defined region with two reportable wins, they need two out of their remaining three to be playoff eligible. That may be enough - but I would be more inclined to say that picking up three wins and getting to five reportable is what will be needed.
Odds and Ends
Tonight is a Playoff Night in the PAC-6 [Link to Article]
Playoff Update - Only 94 Remain [Link to Article]
the Work Week Quarterback (WWQB) - Thoughts and Notes [Link to Article]
Talking Playoffs and Conference Winning Percentages [Link to Article]
When Does 4 Wins Not Equal 4 Wins? [Link to Article]
Multiple Endowments, Oh My! [Link to Article]
Photographs courtesy of newsobserver.com (The News & Observer)
Tonight is a Playoff Night in the PAC-6 [Link to Article]
Playoff Update - Only 94 Remain [Link to Article]
the Work Week Quarterback (WWQB) - Thoughts and Notes [Link to Article]
Talking Playoffs and Conference Winning Percentages [Link to Article]
When Does 4 Wins Not Equal 4 Wins? [Link to Article]
Multiple Endowments, Oh My! [Link to Article]
Photographs courtesy of newsobserver.com (The News & Observer)
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