Friday, October 21, 2011

Feels Like Old Times in the PAC-6


PHOTO BY ROBERT WILLETT - THE NEWS & OBSERVER
It's tough to tell if the Northern Durham Knights are finally back based on what we've seen over the past two seasons, but I think it's safe to say that at the very least they aren't afraid to knock on the door.  

After tonight, we might find out if they are ready to start knocking down some doors and calling the Bull City their playground once again.  Last year, under Coach Anthony Sullivan the Knights rebounded after struggling for the bulk of the previous decade.  Heading into the final two weeks of the regular season, the Knights were exactly where they are this evening, with four wins in conference to no defeats.  But as with last year, they had their toughest competition ahead, in the Southern Durham Spartans, followed up by a regular season finale against Hillside.  A year ago the Knights were unable to capitalize on the early conference momentum and fell to both the Spartans and Hornets, but still managed to claim a third place finish and automatic bid to the playoffs.  For the Spartans, they enter tonight's game with just one conference loss, against the Hornets, as they did a year ago, but the vibe is that this Spartan squad is perhaps further along than the one from a year ago.  Much of their team has an extra year of varsity experience and they managed their non-conference schedule, tough as it is and typically always has been under Coach Jones, with a respectable 2-2 mark including a thrilling overtime loss to visiting Dunbar from the Washington, D.C. area.

Tonight's game is just as big as a year ago for both squads.  A win keeps conference championship hopes alive, while a loss will mean that a second or third place finish is in the cards.  There are a number of top-notch games throughout the area, but if you happen to be in North Durham, then Durham County Memorial Stadium is where you need to be this evening!

Articles on the playoffs:

Playoff Update - 84 Remain   [Link to Article]
the Work Week Quarterback (WWQB) - Thoughts and Notes   [Link to Article]
Talking Playoffs and Conference Winning Percentages   [Link to Article]
When Does 4 Wins Not Equal 4 Wins?   [Link to Article]
Multiple Endowments, Oh My!   [Link to Article]


PAC-6 Match-up, Friday, 10/21/2011

S. Durham (6-3 overall, 4-1 conference) at N. Durham (4-3-1 overall, 4-0 conference)

Reality is that win or lose this evening, the most probable outcome for the conference is to see both of these squads end-up either first through third in conference and thus receive automatic bids to the playoffs. The wildcard in this equation are the Wildcats of East Chapel Hill that are taking on Hillside this evening.  If the Hornets do what they do best - run the ball with Francis and that huge offensive line - and their defense plays the type of attacking and physical defense we've become accustomed to, it is tough to imagine the Wildcats pulling the upset.  In that scenario, the Hornets, Knights and Spartans will end up as the top three finishers, no matter the outcome of tonight's game at County Stadium.

The visiting Spartans have looked dominant since falling to the Hornets in the conference opener.  On offense, Southern has put up close to 56 points per game since that loss, while their defense has allowed 16 a game.  Entering this stretch the Spartans offense looked potent, although there were times that they appeared to be missing a step here and there.  From what we've seen over the past month, it appears that the machine has become well-oiled.  Defensively, the Spartans have struggled and definitely been inconsistent, but this evening, that might not be a huge factor as the Knights have struggled offensively.

Northern has done exactly what they've needed this entire season to be the team at the end with a few more points than the opposition and the reality is that when they tally a win or a loss, it only counts once whether you win by one or 100.  The Knights are showing a lot of old-school Northern football so far this season and in many ways it's almost as though the old locomotive has been taken out of the station after not being used for five to six years and is slowly being brought back into top form.  Problem is, it takes some time to fix pieces here and there and then once it is ready to roll, it takes time to start moving down the track.  For those that know anything about trains though - once it's rolling down the line - you best get out of the way!

After tonight's game, the Spartans are off next week, although I would imagine most if not all of their team will probably be at the Hillside and Northern game.  With a win this evening and a Hillside win, all eyes will be on the big game next week as a win for Northern against the Hornets would create a three way tie atop the PAC-6 and a random draw would determine the final order of first through third, although all three teams would be considered conference champs.  If Northern were to lose next week in this scenario, then the Spartans would be the outright second place qualifier.  If Northern picks up the win tonight, the Spartans will fall to third place in conference and next week's game between Northern and Hillside will decide the conference champion.  If Northern loses tonight and also loses next week, they'll finish in the third place slot.  In all of these scenarios, the assumption is that Hillside gets the victory this evening against East Chapel Hill.

The match-up should be a good one as it appears that the strengths of each squad will be going against the other, Northern's defense and Southern's offense.  It's tough to see Northern's defense being dominant enough this evening to stop Southern every possession and at the same time I find it tough to see Northern's offense score more than 20 this evening.  Numbers and trends aside, having this game mean something for two years in a row is good for the Bull City and good for North Carolina football in general.

Photographs courtesy of newsobserver.com (The News & Observer)




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