Playoff Update - 84 Remain

PHOTO BY DEAN STRICKLAND - THE NEWS & OBSERVER

This is one of those things about the football season at every level, but especially in college and high school where it seems to fly by before it even started, that makes you sometimes wish you had a 'bloated' major league baseball type season - or...perhaps not.  

Another week is gone and we sit with just two remaining regular season weeks to go and teams are working hard to position for not only playoff qualification, but also for top seeding as we close out the 2011 regular season.

As we did a week ago, we'll run through some brief playoff elements, specifically with regard to the classification AAAA teams in the state.  As always, we'd like to point out the assistance we received from one of the top resource sites in North Carolina when it comes to overall team statistics.  If you haven't checked them out, then please take a moment and do that before the season is out.  References, citations, footnotes - whatever your modus operandi is with regards to giving credit - are a good thing, so I wanted to give a shout out to the Asheville Reynolds contingent that have for so many years done an awesome job with their website [www.gobiggreen.net].  Almost all of the information that I used to put together this post was compiled based on their site.

Playoffs Out of Reach?

Heading into last weeks' games, Garinger HS and Southwest Guilford (due to a post-season ban) were the only two teams that looked certain to not be in a position to make the playoffs.  A total of four additional teams; Sanderson, Smithfield Selma, Ben L. Smith and East Mecklenburg were in positions where we reported it looked as though they would need to win out to have the opportunity to at the very least qualify for the playoffs.  All four ended up losing last week and with that, it appears that all four are officially eliminated from post-season consideration as they each have two games remaining on their schedules and are not in position to reach the four win plateau or compete for a top three finish in their respective conferences.  Joining these six squads as we enter this week of play are an additional 10 teams that currently have one overall win on the season, with either one conference win or less and only two games or less remaining on their schedules.  It appears, that even if they were to win out, they would certainly be below the four win qualifying plateau and will be unable to reach a top three finish in their respective conferences.  They include: Person, North Mecklenburg, Enloe, McDowell, Providence, Apex, Riverside, Pine Forest, Terry Sanford and Southern Alamance.  Even though the playoffs may be out of reach for each of these teams, with two weeks to go, many of them will be playing squads jockeying for playoff position and a few wins here or there by these squads could make things interesting for the remaining AAAA teams.

Breaking Down Overall Wins

Heading into week 10 of the regular season there is one team with nine overall wins, Garner, 13 with eight or more wins, 23 with seven or more wins, 36 with six or more wins, 45 with five or more wins and 59 with four or more wins. There are 17 additional teams that currently have three wins; taking us to 76 teams with three or more wins overall on the season.  Of interest in the three win teams, Seventy-First currently is 3-1 in conference and South View one of their conference foes is 2-2.  Western Guilford is the only other team with three overall wins that is on the positive or even side in conference, with a 3-2 mark.  An additional eight teams have two overall wins, including East Chapel Hill with a 2-2 mark in conference play.  With just two games remaining on the season, it would appear that East Wake, Green Hope, Jordan, and Holly Springs are the next four on the edge of qualifying.  If they win, they still have the chance to qualify, if they lose they'll be out, as they can't reach the four win plateau and as of this week look to be out of any contention for an automatic top three berth.  East Chapel Hill, Grimsley and Ashley are in a bit better position.  They need to win out in order to reach the four win plateau, but if they do win out, there is a slight chance that they may sneak into a top three finish in their conferences.

Who Is In - Four Teams

Porter Ridge and Sun Valley are both in the playoffs.  Actually, we knew this before the season began as they come from the Southern Carolina conference that is split between the AAAA and AAA classifications. PR and SV happen to be the only two 4A schools in the conference and as such are guaranteed slots. Currently Porter Ridge is earning that slot as they are 8-0 overall and 23-0 in conference.  Sun Valley is 4-4 overall and 1-2 in conference.  Another split conference and another two teams are officially into the bracket.  TC Roberson and AC Reynolds, both of the Mountain Athletic 4A-3A are officially in as automatic berths.  McDowell, currently in third place in the 4A portion of that conference will be unable to overtake either squad.  Every other conference is still up for grabs and although I'm sure there are some combinations that would indicate that a few teams within the top one or two of conferences are currently safe as automatic bids, I won't be taking the time to go through all those possibilities...

Who Will be a #1 Seed?

A number of teams are currently without a loss (some if you drop the endowment loss) and still vying for the chance at one of the four top seeds (4A East, West; 4AA East, West).  Lumberton with their loss last week to Richmond falls out of our top grouping.  Garner, Leesville Road, Scotland, Mt.Tabor, Mallard Creek, Porter Ridge and Page are currently out in front for these four slots.  With two weeks to go there are a number of key match-ups that could affect where these teams end-up.  Also, with the split occurring at the 4A and 4AA level, until the official ADMs are released, it will be unclear which of the above teams are 'big' and which are 'small'.  As a result, there will most likely be teams with one loss that also grab a one seed simply based on how the numbers play out in those regards.

Hypothetically Speaking

If the season ended this past Friday and all of the automatic bids were nestled nicely within the top 64 teams based on overall wins (which is of course in many ways not necessarily correct), who would be the last two teams in and who'd be the last two out?  The dividing line would be in the three win overall teams and it would be a mess!  There are currently six teams at the dividing line with potentially identical records. South  Mecklenburg, West Charlotte, Knightdale, Hopewell, Lake Norman and Vance are all sitting with three overall wins and a 2-3 (0.400) conference mark.  Three of those squads, West Charlotte, Lake Norman and Vance all played 11 games and at the moment I don't have information on what their endowment game was with regards to their schedule.  It is therefore possible that some of these teams may be sitting with only two reportable wins as opposed to three.  Until that information is known, it's tough to see how that group of six would play out.   And again, this is only hypothetically speaking...

Odds and Ends

the Work Week Quarterback (WWQB) - Thoughts and Notes   [Link to Article]
Talking Playoffs and Conference Winning Percentages   [Link to Article]
When Does 4 Wins Not Equal 4 Wins?   [Link to Article]
Multiple Endowments, Oh My!   [Link to Article]

Photographs courtesy of newsobserver.com (The News & Observer)

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