On the bus that will be heading up Guess Road and across on Rose of Sharon to Riverside will be a Hillside team that is in the driver's seat to control how the PAC-6 hierarchy ends up. After starting off rough against both Person and Jordan over the past two weeks, the Hornets rebounded in the second half to outscore both teams 47 to 3. The Hornets rushed the ball well in both games posting 5.7 YPC or more in both games while allowing the opposition 3.3 YPC or less, including a stellar 0.97 YPC against Jordan. Talk is filtering through the area about possible playoff positioning and every game from here on out is critical for potential home field advantage heading into the playoffs, a slip-up in any of the Hornets' final games could easily impact their playoff seeding significantly.
You would think that both teams have a lot to play for tonight. But at the same time, both teams could come out flat, Hillside overlooking the competition and Riverside looking forward to basketball season and the prospects of 2011. To say it would be a shame if that occurred would be an understatement. Unlike Hillside's last two games, I have a feeling that by halftime we'll know who's playing for what.
With that said...let's get started.
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Hillside - (8 - 0 overall, 3 - 0 conference)
Wins - Grimsley (4A), George Washington Danville (Virginia, Division 5), South View (4A), E.E. Smith (4A), Dudley (4A), Southern Durham (4A), Person (4A), Jordan (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 28 - 40; PF - 320, PA - 96
Losses - None
Strength of Schedule - 56 of 98 4A teams; (-4 from Week 4 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Dudley. The Panthers were ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll and considered by many to be a top contender for the state title. Ranked or not, they were dismantled in all aspects of the game. GT recruit Lee rushed for five touchdowns and added 141 yards through the air while the Hornet defense limited the Dudley offense to just over 100 yards of total offense. Sure, the Hornets have scored more, but there really wasn't any doubt from beginning to end and it was against the toughest opponent to date.
Southern Durham. The victory against the Spartans was not nearly as complete as their contest against Dudley, but they made numerous mistakes and survived to move forward and high-quality teams find ways to do that against high-quality competition.
Best Loss - The one that hasn't occurred yet.
Riverside - (1 - 7 overall; 1 - 2 conference)
Wins - East Chapel Hill (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 1 - 7; PF - 40, PA - 23
Losses - Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Apex (4A), Chapel Hill (3A), Garner (4A), Wakefield (4A), Northern Durham (4A), Southern Durham (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 34 - 25; PF - 95, PA - 263
Strength of Schedule - 46 of 98 4A teams; (+17 since Week 4 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Even if the Wildcats are 1-6, a win is a win and when you haven't captured one the record doesn't matter. The Pirates placed two rushers over the century mark and piled up 246 rushing yards at a blistering 7.7 YPC average. Riverside was efficient through the air as well, passing for a respectable 121 yards for almost 9 YPA. The defense also stepped up, posting its best overall performance, limiting the Wildcats to only 3.2 YPC and 5 YPA, much improved from their statistics in their five previous losses.
Best Loss - Chapel Hill. The Pirates put up their best rushing performance of the 2010 year against the Tigers, rushing for 242 yards and averaging a stellar seven plus yards a carry. Through the air, Riverside had their second best passing performance of the season with 130 yards. Defensively, the Pirates were about average, although they were outstanding in the second half, limiting the Tigers to only nine points. Down 7 to 22 at the half, the Pirates showed their tenacity and credit to the Pirate coaching staff and leadership within to battle back in the second half and only fall by three, 28-31.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - The Pirates and Hornets have both taken on the Southern Durham Spartans so far this year. The Hornets escaped with a one point victory, while the Pirates were blown away by 40 points. The Riverside defense allowed 243 yards on the ground, while the Hornet defense limited the Spartans to just 157 yards. Going into halftime, the Pirates were down by 21 to the Spartans while the Hornets held a one point lead at halftime. A clear advantage is evident if only through the final score of the two games.
Statistically Speaking - The Hornets have dominated in almost every category this season, while the Pirates are struggling in almost every category. The Hornets rank first in points scored and points allowed while the Pirates are second to last in points scored and points allowed. Hillside is putting up 40 PPG compared to Riverside's 16.9 PPG, while the Hornet defense is giving up just 12 PPG to Riverside's 35.8 PPG.
The Hornet offense continued to set the tone of play last week against the Falcons rushing for 310 yards and 5.7 YPC. On the season they are first in the conference in both total rushing yards per game and yards rushing per attempt at 233 YPG and 6.0 YPC. Through the air, the Hornets have complimented the rush attack as needed, placing second in the league with 182 YPG and first in the league at a dominating 9.5 YPA. As mentioned in previous breakdowns, the strength of the Hornet rushing attack is highlighted by their high yards per attempt, a direct result of teams focusing on stopping their bruising rush attack, while the Hornets take advantage through play-action out of their pistol set offense. The Hornets' game-plan is to dominate the line of scrimmage and that is backed-up with a 309 to 153 rush to pass ratio and totals of 1867 yards on the ground, complimented by 1455 through the air. The Hornets' worst rushing performance still yielded 161 yards in the game at a hefty 4.9 YPC, over 1.3 YPC more than Riverside is averaging for the year. Through the air the Hornets have passed for 140 yards or more in every game except for last week when they took on a Falcon pass defense that played as expected and limited the Hornets to just 60 yards.
Not to be out-done is the Hornet defense. They also rank tops in the league, yielding just 114 YPG and 3.63 YPC. Through the air, only the stingy Falcon pass D ranks ahead of them at 4.5 YPA, while the Hornets are giving up 5.8 YPA. The Hornets have limited three of their opponents to less than 81 yards rushing per game while allowing only George Washington Danville out of Virginia to rush for more than 200 yards per game (209). Through the air, Hillside has forced four of their opponents to 101 yards or less.
The Hornets have reached the end zone early and often throughout the year, posting 33 points or more in all but one game this year (13 against Southern Durham). Most of their scoring has come on the ground, with a league best 4.1 touchdowns rushing per game (29 on the year). They've also scored eight times through the air, once on special teams and three times via their defense. Defensively, they've been a brick wall, ranking first against the rush and second against the pass, allowing in total just 1.71 touchdowns per game total. They've also allowed zero scores on special teams and offensively have yet to have a turnover yield a direct score against them.
Completely on the other side of the spectrum is a one win Riverside squad that is looking for a spark to get over the hump. Offensively, they are near the bottom in rushing yards per game at just 104 and are dead last in yards per carry at 3.6. Through the air they've amassed 155 YPG, good for third in the conference, but have not fared as well in yards per attempt at roughly 6.1 per game, putting them fifth in the conference. The Pirates have rushed for 100 yards or less in five of their seven games.
Defensively, only East Chapel Hill and Person are giving up more yards rushing per game. The Pirates are currently yielding 184 per game, including the 243 they gave up last week against Southern Durham. Through the air they are giving up 164 YPG, worst in the league and close to 9 YPA, putting them in seventh position, just ahead of the Wildcats. The Pirates have given up 100 or more yards rushing in all but one game this year and have given up 200 or more yards rushing in three of their eight games.
When the Pirates have reached the end zone, it has been more often than not on the ground as they are putting the ball on the ground for roughly 1.4 touchdowns per game. They have also added a few scores via their defense. Defensively they've been exposed most noticeably on the ground where they are giving up close to three touchdowns per game, but have also given up roughly one score per game through the air as well as multiple scores through special teams and due to offensive miscues.
All Those Other Items
Similar to Person, for Riverside, the time is now, if they have any idea of playing during the second week of November in the first round of the playoffs. Statistics and match-ups aside, they are the only team sitting at the bottom of the conference that still has the potential to roll off four wins in conference. The question is, against one of the top teams in the conference, will the Pirates come out fighting or simply set sail.
The Hornets have started strong in games, putting up close to 23 PPG prior to halftime and yielding just over seven per game. The Pirates have been on the other extreme giving up just over 24 per game and putting only seven on the board going into halftime. For things to go the Pirates way, they'll need to put more points on the board heading into the half and then play with the heightened energy they have tended to have in the second half of most of their games.
The Final Analysis
I'm beginning to wonder just a bit about the Hornets - dominant or not so dominant. Sure, they've taken care of business the last two weeks in the second half, but what about the first. Procrastination isn't a good thing when you can control it and against tougher competition, it will get you in a heap of trouble that you just might not be able to rebound from when you 'decide to play ball'. For the Hornets, putting up convincing numbers in the first half, combined with finishing the game strong, will be a big boost for them as they look to finish the season strong.
Riverside looks to be simply holding on and just holding on is not a good place to be when you have Goliath coming to your place. That said, anything is possible on any given night and for the Pirates playing a complete game with confidence will be the first element to making a game of this contest.
As positive as I'd like to be for the Pirates, the numbers and my belief that Coach Antonio King understands what needs to happen for his Hornet team to compete every week in the playoffs, tells me that this game shouldn't and won't be close. Look for the Hornet ground game to make another statement this week and for the Hornet defensive front seven to wreak havoc in both the rushing and passing game of the Pirates. The Pirates are wobbling and the Hornets may just tip this ship over for good.
DFBFan's Pick - Hillside (3-0) at Riverside (1-2)
Hillside - 53
Riverside - 7
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