Hillside has continued to be a juggernaut throughout the season, posting monster numbers and aside from a touch-and-go nailbiter against Southern Durham have, when the final whistle sounded been clearly the better team based on an overwhelming margin of victory. East Chapel Hill has fought through adversity, including the loss of starting quarterback Drew Davis, and continued to put up points, but have been hamstrung by one of the most porous defenses in the Piedmont.
The Hornets have started slow in a number of games this year and even last week against Riverside they stumbled a bit to begin the contest with an ineffective first series and early turnover, but as has been the case in the majority of their games they found their footing and have throttled their opponents. The Wildcats may have put up their most valiant effort of the season last week, going into halftime up by five points to Southern Durham, before succumbing to the waves of fresh Spartans off the bench that eventually led to a 22 point victory for Southern Durham.
There are not too many reasons to believe that tonight's game will produce the type of upset that would literally be talked about throughout the state, but that doesn't mean that the Hornets might not find themselves just a bit scared on this Halloween weekend if they don't come into the game with the correct frame of mind.
Times a-wastin'...let's get started.
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Hillside - (9 - 0 overall, 4 - 0 conference)
Wins - Grimsley (4A), George Washington Danville (Virginia, Division 5), South View (4A), E.E. Smith (4A), Dudley (4A), Southern Durham (4A), Person (4A), Jordan (4A), Riverside (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 33 - 49 (0.40 WP); PF - 363, PA - 96
Losses - None
Strength of Schedule - 77 of 98 4A teams; (-21 from Week 5 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Dudley. The Panthers were ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll and considered by many to be a top contender for the state title. Ranked or not, they were dismantled in all aspects of the game. GT recruit Lee rushed for five touchdowns and added 141 yards through the air while the Hornet defense limited the Dudley offense to just over 100 yards of total offense. Sure, the Hornets have scored more, but there really wasn't any doubt from beginning to end and it was against the toughest opponent to date.
Southern Durham. The victory against the Spartans was not nearly as complete as their contest against Dudley, but they made numerous mistakes and survived to move forward and high-quality teams find ways to do that against high-quality competition.
Best Loss - The one that hasn't occurred yet.
East Chapel Hill (1 - 8 overall; 0 - 4 conference)
Wins - Northwood (2A); Record of Teams Combined - 6 - 4 (0.60 WP); PF - 20, PA - 18
Losses - Cardinal Gibbons (3A), Cedar Ridge (2A), Carrboro (2A), Chapel Hill (3A), Jordan (4A), Riverside (4A), Northern Durham (4A), Southern Durham (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 42 - 32 (0.57 WP); PF - 209, PA - 345
Strength of Schedule - 76 of 98 teams; (-1 from Week 3 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Northwood. Look back over the recent past and there aren't a ton of wins for ECH, so to get one on opening night was huge. Add to that, a new head coach, a new offensive system and there was a lot of reasons why the typically powerful Northwood team should have won the game, but in the end, the Wildcats did what was necessary and came out with a close 20-18 victory despite giving up over 300 yards rushing. The spread attack is there and Renner knows how to implement it with Davis at the controls.
Best Loss - Cedar Ridge. The Wildcat defense has been porous to say the least with regards to stopping opposing teams rush attack, so to only allow just over four yards a carry against the Red Wolves is somewhat of a small victory. Offensively, ECH had their best outing in yards passing topping 350 yards while averaging close to eight yards per attempt. The game was competitive throughout, with Cedar Ridge hold only a six point lead heading into the half.
Honorable Mention - Southern Durham. Cedar Ridge has played well this year and because of that I'm leaving them as East's best loss to-date, but the effort the Wildcats put forth against the Spartans was quality. They led by five going into the intermission and that was without starting QB Davis at the helm. They managed to put up one of their best rushing performances of the year against arguably one of the best run defenses in the area and made plays early to make a game of it.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - Riverside, Jordan and Southern Durham are all common opponents. East has lost to all three, while Hillside has dispatched each. East's closest loss was against Riverside by 17, while Hillside's narrowest victory was against Southern at just one point. Overall differentials in each game - 60 points (Riverside), 49 points (Jordan) and 23 points (Southern Durham). The Hillside defense shutdown the rushing attacks of the three teams, while East's defense allowed roughly 7.7 YPC or more to each of the three. The Hornets have the advantage based on this information.
Statistically Speaking - Recall I mentioned earlier 15 to 9. That would be the number of statistical categories where Hillside ranks first overall in the PAC-6 and the number of statistical categories where ECH ranks last in the conference. In short, the statistical comparisons are not going to do any favors for the Wildcats. The Hornets have dominated on the scoreboard, ranking first in the conference at over 40 points per game and aside from their 13 point effort against Southern, have put up 33 points or more in all eight of their remaining games. Defensively the Hornets also hold the top slot allowing just under 11 points a game. They've shut out two teams this year and held two others to under 10 points. Only one team has managed 20 or more points against the Hornets (Person). The Wildcats have not been too bad offensively helped in large part to the implementation of the Air-Renner spread attack. They rank fourth in conference in scoring at just over 23 points a game and have scored 20 or more points in seven of their nine games this year. Defensively is where the struggle really begins as they rank last in the conference allowing over 38 points per game. They've allowed under 36 points in one game this year - yes, you would be correct - 36 or more in eight of the nine games they've played.
The Wildcat offense has definitely been the bright spot for an otherwise tough year. They rank first in the conference in yards passing per game as well as attempts, but are middle of the conference at fourth for yards per attempt. At roughly 6 YPA, it's not all bad, as the Air-Renner system uses the pass in many ways as simply an extension of the run - short, quick passes in space to pick up move the chain type of yardage. Point being that a lower yards per attempt doesn't speak negatively about the offense as much as a play-action heavy team with a low metric might indicate. The Wildcats are putting up roughly 225 yards per game through the air and have thrown for over 100 yards in all of their games this year, going over 200 yards in four of them. The Wildcats are near the bottom of the league when it comes to running the ball at just under 95 YPG and roughly 4 YPC. They've reached the 100 yard plateau in four of their nine games to-date.
Defense is a bit ghoulish for the Wildcats. They rank last in the league in number of yards rushing per game and most importantly, yards per carry and yards per attempt through the air. When teams run the ball, they are picking up roughly 6.9 YPC and when they throw they are picking up over 9 YPA. When a team only needs two and quite possibly only one down to pick up first downs, the game isn't going to go well, no matter how well you can score. The Wildcats are yielding almost 321 yards per game rushing and about 127 through the air. The minimum rushing total any team has put up against the Wildcats was 229 yards (Cedar Ridge). They've given up between two and three hundred yards rushing in four of their nine games. They've given up between three and four hundred yards rushing in four of their nine games and they gave up over 400 yards to Southern last week. Enough said.
The main vehicle for the Wildcats to reach the end zone this year has been through the air with 18 scores for roughly two passing touchdowns per game, putting them first in the conference. They've augmented those passing scores with 10 additional scores on the ground and one score via special teams and another by way of their defense. As with yardage yielded, the scoring defense for the Wildcats is last in the league, giving up 32 rushing scores for roughly 3.6 per game and 14 passing scores for 1.6 per game. They have also given up one special team score and two touchdowns through offensive miscues.
The Hornets in almost every way are on the other side of the statistical globe when compared to the Wildcats. Offensively, the Hornets rank first in total rushing yards per game at close to 243 per game, with the closest competition in this category being Southern at 156 per game. Hillside is also first in yards per rushing attempt at a strong 6.2 per game. Perhaps even more impressive than the rushing statistics are the passing statistics. Hillside is last in the league in total passing attempts on the season at 164, yet they are second in the league in total yards passing at close to 164 per game. This is understandable when you note that they are first in the league in yards per attempt at just under 9 per game. A great example of an efficient play-action oriented attack, where the Hornets have run the ball 351 times to 164 pass attempts or roughly 68% of the time, that opens up the deep and medium level big gainers because of an effective and consistent running game. The Hornets have run for 160 yards or more in all of their games this year and 200 or more yards in seven of their nine games. Through the air they've averaged 9 YPA or more in five of their nine games.
The level of play doesn't drop off much when you move to the defensive side of the ball where the Hornets are ranked first in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (115 YPG) and yards per rush (3.65). The Hornets have allowed 200 or more yards rushing in just one game this year and have had three games where they have allowed 100 or fewer yards rushing. Against opposing teams pass offense, the Hornets rank second in the league in yards per attempt allowed at 5.5 and third in the league for total passing yards per game allowed at roughly 110.
Quarterback Vad Lee has led the Hornet scoring barrage this season with 16 rushing scores to complement the 35 total rushing scores at over 4.4 rushing touchdowns per game. The Hornets have added eight additional scores through the air as well as one special team score and three defensive scores. Defensively, the Hornets are tops in the league in every category allowing just 0.9 rushing touchdowns per game and 0.6 passing scores per game. They allowed zero special teams scores this season and no opposing defense has scored while the Hornet offense has been on the field.
All Those Other Items
No point in beating around the bush, the elephant in the room for this game is as simple as it gets, coaching 101, don't look past the opponent in front of you because they are, well - not so good, in your opinion. Hillside has shown that they can move the ball well and the East defense has shown they have issues stopping almost everyone they've faced this year. Put those two things together and the answer to the question of what happens is a lot of scoring for the Hornets. On the flip side, East has done a respectable job of moving the ball throughout the year and the Hornets have done a solid job of stopping teams from moving the ball and maybe even more importantly limiting teams from reaching the end zone. Another plus for the Hornets. But as was the case last week, a strong Southern team found themselves down by five at the break to a fiesty Wildcat squad.
There really isn't much else there, nothing hidden in this game. If the Hornets understand that coming out strong early is important and they execute then things should go according to 'plan', but if the Hornets decide to be careless with the ball, penalty prone and then begin to lose overall focus, Air-Renner will make you pay and as with last week's game the Hornets could find themselves down. Last week, the Spartans woke up and realized that yes indeed they were playing a game and quickly in the second half, set things straight, specifically on the first play from scrimmage in the second half with a long touchdown run to take back the lead, but that was last week and this week, East is playing the Hornets.
The Final Analysis
The Wildcats are playing for pride at this point in the season as they are out of playoff contention and there wouldn't be much else better this Halloween weekend then for them to knock off the top-dog in the PAC-6. The Hornets have yet to play a complete game since starting PAC-6 play and with Northern Durham lurking around the corner for a potential championship showdown it's about time for Hillside to show the Bull City how good they really are - period.
Look for the Hornets to come out strong and focused and on a cold autumn evening pound the rock in a way that even a battered East defense has yet to see this season. Coach King has shown, if you watch closely, that his teams don't simply come out and play ball, there is typically a message being sent and I wouldn't be surprised if tonight's message is that we definitely can run the ball - better than Southern did - and oh by the way one of the top quarterbacks in the area plays at Hillside and he's going to get to 2000 yards by season's end and tonight will be a big step in the right direction.
East will put up a fight, but in the cold weather and with the pounding they will take on both sides of the ball in a very physical game, they simply won't be able to stay with these Hornets. Check the box and get ready for the Bull City Showdown Part II, next week.
DFBFan's Pick - ECH (0-4) at Hillside (4-0)
Hillside - 49
East Chapel Hill - 13
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