Friday, October 29, 2010

PAC-6 Breakdown (Week 6) - Pirates visit Rockets - Burrrr, Are Pirates Ready for Weather?

Last I checked there isn't any rain in the forecast for tonight's game pitting the Riverside Pirates against the Roxboro Person Rockets, but I guarantee you that the weather will play a role.  For those that have made the trek north to Roxboro, and we've spoken about this before, the temperature you'll find at game time on the Rocket's field will typically be at least five degrees cooler than what you experience in the Bull City and for the Pirates that will be simply one additional obstacle they'll have to get past this evening if they hope to get their second win in conference and ensure themselves at worst a fifth place finish in conference play.

In a game where Riverside is out of playoff contention and Person, even with two more wins on the season, has less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs, it's tough to find an angle for the game, aside from it's football, so let's get after it!  But if you want to find an angle, then these would be those angles - The angle is pride, the angle is building momentum for the offseason, the angle is getting better and for both teams a win tonight can help in all of those areas.  The Pirates still have the opportunity to win out and claim fourth place in the conference at 3-3, something that most all of those that stated their two cents about the conference hierarchy were far from projecting.  On the other sideline, the Rockets have been steadily improving, putting up a quality fight against both Northern Durham and Hillside, while seeing a 10 point lead evaporate in the fourth quarter against an above average Jordan team.  A win for Person this evening would go a long way in solidifying Coach Geary's system and showing that progress is occurring even in his first year at the helm.

It would seem that the Pirates may have a bit more to play for at least in conference standing, but with the level of play they've put forth over the past few weeks compared to Person's results, it's tough on first glance to see how the Pirates will be able to handle the long trip north on Roxboro Road into the cold-cold night.  Person appears to have all of the momentum, but you have to believe that even with all of the injuries and adversity that the Pirates have endured this season they'll find something down deep that motivates them to make this one of the better games of the evening.

Tick-tock-tick-tock...let's get started.


Where They Stand Entering the Game

Riverside - (1 - 8 overall; 1 - 3 conference)
Wins - East Chapel Hill (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 1 - 8 (0.11 WP); PF - 40, PA - 23
Losses - Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Apex (4A), Chapel Hill (3A), Garner (4A), Wakefield (4A), Northern Durham (4A), Southern Durham (4A), Hillside (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 48 - 26 (0.65 WP); PF - 95, PA - 306
Strength of Schedule - 34 of 98 4A teams; (+12 since Week 5 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)

Best Win - Even if the Wildcats are 1-6, a win is a win and when you haven't captured one the record doesn't matter. The Pirates placed two rushers over the century mark and piled up 246 rushing yards at a blistering 7.7 YPC average. Riverside was efficient through the air as well, passing for a respectable 121 yards for almost 9 YPA. The defense also stepped up, posting its best overall performance, limiting the Wildcats to only 3.2 YPC and 5 YPA, much improved from their statistics in their five previous losses.

Best Loss - Chapel Hill. The Pirates put up their best rushing performance of the 2010 year against the Tigers, rushing for 242 yards and averaging a stellar seven plus yards a carry. Through the air, Riverside had their second best passing performance of the season with 130 yards. Defensively, the Pirates were about average, although they were outstanding in the second half, limiting the Tigers to only nine points. Down 7 to 22 at the half, the Pirates showed their tenacity and credit to the Pirate coaching staff and leadership within to battle back in the second half and only fall by three, 28-31.


Person (Roxboro) (2 - 7 overall, 0 - 4 conference)
Wins - Oxford Webb (3A), Bartlett Yancey (2A); Record of Teams Combined - 6 - 12 (0.33 WP); PF - 69, PA - 12
Losses - George Washington Danville (Virginia Division 5), Halifax (Virginia Division 5), Ragsdale (4A), Northern Durham (4A), Southern Durham (4A), Hillside (4A), Jordan (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 37 - 26 (0.59 WP); PF - 81, PA - 242
Strength of Schedule - 75 of 98 teams; (-4 from Week 5 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)

Best Win - Barlett-Yancey. Although only a 2A team, the Rockets victory over Bartlett Yancey was their most convincing to-date. The Rockets put up season highs in points scored, yards rushing, average yards per rush and average yards per pass attempt. Add to that the defense also performed well allowing a season low 59 yards rushing and season low 1.48 YPC.

Previously - Oxford Webb. I don't know if you can necessarily call this a best win, but since only one exists, I'll be kind. What you can take from this is that Person under the new leadership of Coach Geary, (Cedar Ridge's head coach for many years prior), can win and have experienced winning under the new captain. But from that point forward things have been tough going.

Best Loss - Jordan.  The Rockets put together almost the complete game against one of the tougher teams they've faced this year in the Falcons.  Tallying over 400 yards of total offense including a balanced 211 on the ground at a respectable 5.9 yards per carry and 205 through the air at almost nine yards per attempt the Rocket offense was in high gear against one of the better defenses in the PAC-6.  Defensively the Rockets shut down the Falcon passing attack and were respectable against the run.  In the end, sporting a 10 point advantage, the Rockets turned the ball over multiple times at critical junctures in the second half eventually leading to their demise and a come-from-behind 21-17 Falcon victory.  Still, after a strong performance against the Hornets a week earlier the Rockets appear to be in the early stages of finding their footing. 

Previously - Halifax County, VA. First, the Rockets fell short by less than a touchdown. Second, the Rockets started somewhat strong in this game leading at halftime, 9-7, before giving up a 3rd quarter score. But, Halifax has gone on to a 1-3 record with their closest loss being 20 points to North Stafford (VA).

Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look

Common Opponents - Northern and Southern Durham and Hillside are the common opponents to-date for these teams.  Both have lost all meetings to these teams.  The closest contest for the Rockets was against the Knights where they fell by 14, while the Pirates closest game was also against Northern Durham where they fell by 13.  In all three contests, Riverside gave up 40 or more points, while the Rockets gave up 27, 39 and 48.  The Rockets managed 36 total points against the three teams including being shut-out by Southern Durham, while Riverside tallied 35 points and was shut-out by Hillside.  Neither team was able to run the ball incredibly well against the competition, although the Pirates put up gaudy numbers passing against the Knights.  Defensively, neither team fared well against the rushing attacks of the three.  Whether in closest margin of victory or points scored you can see this should be a close match-up of two teams in the bottom half of the conference standings.

The Final Analysis

Momentum is a huge part of high school football and teams that are able to manage both the positive and negative momentum end up playing further into the fall than those that are unable to harness this aspect of the game.  Riverside has shown to be a team that because of myriad issues is picking up more and more negative momentum, while the Rockets seem to be hitting their stride and even with a tough loss last week to Jordan have more positive momentum on their side.

The long drive and cold weather in Roxboro will serve as a positive for the Rockets and yet another obstacle for a beat-up and struggling Pirate squad.  Even though statistically both teams are about the same with the Rockets edging the Pirates by just a tad in each major category, this game will look closer than it really was when it is all said and done.  Neither team is at the point to pull away from the other in convincing fashion, but a long season for the Pirates will seem to be that much longer this evening as the score will be close but the feeling of victory will be far away to the trained observer.

DFBFan's Pick - Riverside (1-3) at Person (0-4)
Person - 24
Riverside - 10


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