Last week we took some time to give a primer on the playoff selection process and gave a first look at where the teams in the PAC-6 stood in relation to making the playoffs. We've had a tremendous response to that article and hopefully will provide a bit more insight each week as we draw closer to Selection Saturday, following the last Friday of the regular season. [T-Minus One Month = Playoff Time Article]
Winners last week in the PAC-6 included Northern Durham, Southern Durham, Hillside and Person (played out of conference against Bartlett Yancey). East Chapel Hill, Jordan and Riverside were all on the losing sideline.
This is how it looks currently from a playoff perspective and we'll use information from Drew Pasteur's site, Fantastic50.net, to help us think about the at-large possibilities. The newly updated playoff bubble page for considering at-large berths indicates the following (note the win totals I'll discuss are reportable wins). Six reportable wins should get you an at-large selection. Interestingly, four reportable wins and one conference win or less is currently being projected as left out of the at-large pool and moreover, four reportable wins and four conference wins has only a 30% probability of making the field. This has dropped down by 11 percentage points over the past week. More teams are reaching the five win plateau, making a selection from the four win group that much more difficult. Of course, it should be noted, Southern is a great example of this situation, that these projections deal with at-large berths, if Southern has four wins and four conference wins they will finish in the top three in the PAC-6 and thus be granted an automatic bid. More pertinent to the PAC-6 is the five reportable win group, which currently includes Jordan. At the moment five reportable wins and one conference win is yielding just a 73% probability of making the playoffs. A 92% or above probability of making the playoffs as an at-large rests at the five reportable win and two conference win plateau (last week this was 91%). Five reportable wins and three conference wins puts you at 99% and of course from that point forward teams should be good.
Northern Durham (5-4 overall, 5-3 reportable, 4-0 conference; 2 games remaining, @Southern, Hillside) - The Knights are one of two teams in conference that control their own destiny. Win out and they will make the playoffs as an automatic qualifier and they will be pooled with the first place conference finishers for seeding purposes. If this scenario were to occur, they would be 7-4 overall with a 7-3 reportable record. They would most likely be one of the lowest seeded first place conference finishers due to that reportable record. Worst case would be to lose both games. If this were to happen, both Hillside and Southern would pick up wins putting them with at least four wins each regardless of their other games. Only Riverside has the possibility of reaching four wins, with games against Jordan, Person and Hillside still on the slate, they would have to win all three to get to that four win conference mark. Unless that occurs, which appears to be a stretch based on what we've seen so far, even in Northern's worst case scenario they would end up third in conference at 5-6 overall, 5-5 reportable and 4-2 in conference (this would still be an automatic qualifying position that could be anywhere from 1st to 3rd depending on how Hillside and Southern did in their remaining games). The only situation that exists where they would possibly not be an automatic qualifier is if Riverside won out and Hillside defeated Northern, but also lost to East Chapel Hill. Add to that, Southern losing to East Chapel Hill but defeating Northern Durham. In this situation there would be four teams with four conference wins and two conference losses; Northern Durham (W-RHS, L-SHS and HHS), Southern Durham (W-NHS and RHS, L-HHS), Hillside (W-SHS and NHS, L-RHS) and Riverside (W-HHS, L-NHS and SHS). In that situation, I don't see any tie-breakers working out, gotta believe it would be a chance draw, which means any of those teams could be first through fourth in conference with three teams receiving automatic bids and the fourth team having to get in via an at-large bid - This would appear to be a highly unlikely scenario, but not impossible. One additional scenario exists concerning Northern Durham and Riverside and is described in the Riverside section.
Hillside (8-0 overall, 7-0 reportable, 3-0 conference; 3 games remaining, @Riverside, ECH, @Northern Durham) - The Hornets are the other team in conference that controls its own destiny. It's fitting that if all goes according to plan for the Hornets and if Northern is able to knock off Southern Durham next week, then the final game of the regular season will decide the PAC-6 champion with a potential undefeated Hornet team taking on an undefeated in-conference Knight squad. This would be the best case scenario for the Hornets, accompanied by a win against Northern to close out the season. That would place them with an overall 11-0 record and a 10-0 reportable record along with a first place finish in conference. They would receive an automatic bid and be pooled with the first place finishers, moreover with a 10-0 reportable record they would be one of the highest seeds in the top pool. Worst case for the Hornets would be three straight losses, placing them at 3-3 in conference. This situation would put Northern into one of the top three slots guaranteed, no matter how they did against Southern Durham. If Southern and Riverside were to win out accompanied by Hillside falling in all three games, then Southern and Riverside along with Northern would claim the top three slots and Hillside would be left out as an automatic qualifier. But with a reportable seven wins they would receive an at-large bid based on the information provided by Drew Pasteur's site.
Southern Durham (3-6 overall, 3-5 reportable, 3-1 conference; 2 games remaining, @ECH, Northern Durham) - After Hillside and Northern, the Spartans are in the best position going into the final stretch of the regular season. Best case scenario is to win out placing them at 5-6 overall with a 5-5 reportable record and 5-1 in conference play. Depending on what occurs in Hillside's and Northern's remaining games and most likely the Hillside and Northern game to conclude the season, they could fall anywhere from first to third place in conference. Defeating Northern, but then having Northern defeat Hillside to close out the season could put all three teams at 5-1 in conference play, with each team defeating each other. This would result in a random draw yielding the order of finish. Worst case for the Spartans is they lose out, placing them at 3-3 in conference play and 3-8 overall. This would put the Spartans in a situation they don't want to be in as that last week of the season plays out. First, you have to have four wins reportable to be eligible for an at-large bid - they would not have that as they would be 3-7 reportable. Their only chance of making the playoffs would be to grab an automatic bid via a third place finish in conference at 3-3. Again, this scenario would give Northern a win, so we know they would be either a first or second place finisher regardless of what they did against Hillside. But this is where it gets interesting, in this situation if Hillside won out, ECH would be unable to reach three wins in conference. Person, Riverside and Jordan would all be in a position with three weeks remaining to get to three wins. Whichever team in that mix accomplished that goal would be tied with Southern at 3-3. And here is where I'm unsure of the exact answer to the following situation - In all three scenarios, Southern has defeated those three teams, Person, Riverside and Jordan, so based on how I know teams tied for 1st through 3rd work, head-to-head would break the tie. But I'm unsure of how that would work if breaking the tie via head-to-head would give one team the 3rd place finish and the other team a 4th place finish. I would assume (always dangerous) that the tie would be broken by head-to-head and in that case, even in Southern's worst case situation it appears they should be guaranteed a 3rd place finish and thus an automatic bid (you can see how I'm a bit hesitant though - assuming the tie is not broken by the head-to-head and instead through a random draw - then potentially, Southern would be left out of the playoffs).
Riverside (1-7 overall, 1-6 reportable, 1-2 conference; 3 games remaining; Hillside, @Person, Jordan) - Believe it or not, the Pirates are the only other team in the conference that can theoretically reach the four win plateau in conference play. We'll start with the worst case scenario, if they lose out, no playoffs, moreover, if they lose two of the remaining three they are out as they won't be able to reach a top three finish or reach the four win reportable mark to be eligible as an at-large team. If they can win two out of three, they could find themselves tied with a team in third place, but most likely that would result in them losing out in a head-to-head tie breaker (see the Southern Durham description above). To be perfectly honest, Riverside's best shot at making the playoffs includes them winning their remaining three. In this situation they would be sitting at four wins in conference play at 4-2. If Hillside were to win out other wise they would be at 5-1 and depending on what happened in the Southern and Northern game would determine where Riverside sat in the mix. A Northern win over Southern, coupled with a Southern win over ECH would put Northern at 5-1, Southern and Riverside at 4-2 in conference play. Leading to a first place finish for Hillside (head-to-head with Northern), Northern in second and once again a situation where Southern and Riverside are tied for that third place finish, again, if it's head-to-head then Southern would take that slot and Riverside would be left as an at-large possibility, they would be 4-6 reportable with four conference wins. At the moment, Drew is stating that a team in that situation has a 30% probability of making the playoffs. It's clear that Riverside needs to win out and ideally see Southern lose out. (Note that Northern losing out and Riverside winning out would also create a tie for third with both teams at 4-2, again Northern has the tie breaker it would appear, but if per chance the draw occurred by random chance and Northern were left out of the top three, then Northern is sitting at 5-6 overall with a 5-5 reportable record and four wins in conference play. Currently Drew is listing teams in this situation with a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs as an at-large.)
Jordan (5-4 overall, 5-3 reportable, 1-3 conference; 2 games remaining; Person, @Riverside) - The Falcons will need help to get into the conference mix at this point in time. With three losses in conference they need some serious upsets to occur. Lose one more game and they have no shot at a top three conference finish, win both and they have a small chance. Worst case scenario they lose their next two, placing them at 5-6 overall and 5-5 reportable with one conference win. They would be eligible for an at-large berth with a 73% probability of making the playoffs according to Drew Pasteur. Win one of two and finish 2-4 in conference play they would be at six reportable wins and according to Drew would be in the playoffs as an at-large selection due to the six reportable wins. If they were to win both games and finish at 3-3, they would effectively push Person out of the conference race. As for how a 3-3 mark might work out for a possible top three conference finish - not going there - to crazy.
Person (2-6 overall, 2-5 reportable, 0-3 conference; 3 games remaining; @Jordan, Riverside, @ECH) - The Rockets best case scenario is to win out placing them at 3-3 in conference play and 5-6 overall with a 5-5 reportable mark. In this situation, as an at-large they would have a 99% chance of making the playoffs according to Drew Pasteur. Again at that 3-3 mark, there is the possibility if crazy stuff happened for them to sneak into the top three, but just like with Jordan, we aren't going to talk about that now! They could also win two of three and get to four wins reportable with two conference wins. According to Drew, this would put them with only a 1% chance of making the playoffs and at that record they would not be in position to grab a top three automatic finish. It's clear that they need to win three games to have a realistic shot at making the playoffs this year.
East Chapel Hill (1-7 overall, 1-6 reportable, 0-3 conference; 3 games remaining; Southern, @Hillside, Person) - The Wildcats best case situation and really only possibility of having a shot at the playoffs is to win all three games remaining to put them at 3-3 in conference play and 4-7 overall with a 4-6 reportable mark. According to Drew Pasteur, four reportable wins and three conference wins places them with a 9% probability of making the playoffs. All of the other situations, don't lead to a second game in November. (Although, I will add that a 3-3 mark with crazy stuff happening at the top, which would include East knocking off both Southern and Hillside - which might be a bit tough - could lead to the possibility of a top three finish, but again, way too crazy to go into at this point in time.)
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