PAC-6 Breakdown (Week 1 Playoffs) - Wildcats visit Spartans - Hey, I Remember Last Year!

PHOTO BY  ETHAN HYMAN

Southern Durham had one of the best seats in the house last week - the bye seat - as they sat and watched where they would end up in the PAC-6 race.  They knew that a Hornet victory would assure them a second place finish and automatic bid for the playoffs, while a Northern win would give them a share of the conference crown and the potential to end up either first, second or third in conference depending on a random draw.  In the end, they knew they'd be in the dance, the only question was where?

The Hornets took care of business and for the first time in four years Southern ended the regular season without at least a share of a conference crown.  But as a bit of a consolation they picked up the second seed in the conference and a home game.  And what better way for the Spartans to begin the playoffs then to get a second chance at someone every Spartan remembers from last year - the New Hanover Wildcats.  In the third round of the state playoffs last year a talented Southern squad played host to the same New Hanover squad and battled it out in Durham for the right to move on to the Eastern Regional finals.  In a tough game, the Wildcats pulled out the 21-10 victory and went on to play Harnett Central the eventual 4A state runner-up.  Southern was 12 and 1 going into that game, while the Wildcats were 10 and 3, both were top caliber teams and played a high caliber game.  This year the Spartans sport a 5-6 mark, but played one of the tougher schedules in the state early on, while the Wildcats are 6-5 and have played their share of tough competition as well including Scotland County, Richmond County, New Bern and Rose.

There is no doubt that this game will be physical and that the Spartans after going on a five game winning streak to end the regular season are looking for a strong showing and win in the first round to continue to validate where they are as a team.  For New Hanover, after putting together one of the better seasons in school history a year ago, a win on Friday will keep alive a season and put them at seven wins, the second highest win total the Wildcats have earned in the last 10 years.  The drive is a long one, but before too long they'll be warming up and getting ready for a brawl in the Bull City...so let's get started!

Where They Stand Entering the Game

New Hanover - (6 - 5 overall, 2 - 3 conference)

Wins - Goldsboro (1A), Eastern Wayne (3A), Southeast Raleigh (4A), Northside-Jax (2A), Ashley (4A), Laney (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 39 - 27 (0.59 WP); PF - 194, PA - 80

Losses - Scotland (4A), Richmond (4A), New Bern (4A), JH Rose (4A), Hoggard (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 37 - 17 (0.69 WP); PF - 62, PA - 178

Strength of Schedule - 22 of 98 4A teams; (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)

Best Win - Southeast Raleigh.  One of the top four to five teams they played this year and they came out on top after being behind 12-0 at halftime.  Offensively the Wildcats weren't very special on this night, but defensively they shined limiting the Bulldogs to less than 100 yards rushing and just 2.3 YPC.  They also limited the aerial attack of the Bulldogs to just over 150 yards and only 4.9 YPA.

Best Loss - None of their losses had a ton of redeeming value.  They lost handily to a Hoggard team that they should have beat, while being taken apart by Rose.  Against Scotland, Richmond and New Bern, all top tier teams in the state they were taken a part and couldn't do much on offense in any of those games while in general allowing the opposition to do what they pleased.  This isn't often, but to be honest, I don't see much you can take away from any of their losses.

Southern Durham - (5 - 6 overall, 5 - 1 conference)

Wins - Person (4A), Jordan (4A), Riverside (4A), ECH (4A), Northern Durham (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 18 - 37 (0.33 WP); PF - 175, PA - 53

Losses - JH Rose (4A), Middle Creek (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Douglas Byrd (4A), Millbrook (4A), Hillside (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 51 - 15 (0.77 WP); PF - 82, PA - 120

Strength of Schedule - 49 of 98 4A teams; (-2 from Week 6 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)

Best Win - Person. It was clear after seeing the Spartans in person that what we had expected was at least in part true. They had played top-notch competition and simply were unable to get that last first down or negate a late penalty or turnover to get a win. That all changed when they stepped onto the field against a Rocket team that simply didn't have the fire-power or athletic ability to compete. The Spartans exploded on the offensive side of the ball, looking like a completely different team, with 264 yards rushing and over 7 YPC, while adding 160 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Defensively, a fast an athletic group, shined, limiting the Rocket rush attack to under 3 YPC

Honorable Mention - East Chapel Hill. Only because of the sheer offensive numbers the Spartans accumulated - over 600 total yards of offense.

Best Loss - Hillside. We know Southern has played an incredible schedule, now considered by computer-guru Pasteur the #1 toughest schedule in 4A ball and oh by the way, #1 overall for every school in the state of NC, all classifications (prior to Hillside game). On Friday night, they did what they've done all year long, play tough, competitive football against quality teams and then find themselves in the position late to get their first victory of the 2010 season against arguably one of the top 10 4A teams in the state. Statistically, it wasn't a great night for the Spartans as they were only better than their season averages in the rush per attempt category, picking up 5.2 YPC versus a season average of 3.0 YPC. Some could argue taking Judd's 80 yard run out of the mix would show that statistically they really struggled (it was a bit of an outlier) and those folks would have a valid gripe. Still, the Spartans did what they needed as the game progressed based on where the game was in that moment and almost took the victory.

Previously - Byrd. Almost all of Southern's defeats have been competitive, but the contest against Byrd had the Spartans leading 7-6 at halftime and it wasn't until late that Byrd made the plays to take home the victory.  The Spartan offense picked up a season high of 224 yards through the air and had their second best rushing total of the year although in both cases they had a high number of attempts. Defensively the Spartans limited Byrd to just over 200 yards of offense. As with most of their losses they appear to be close, but not close enough to pulling out the W.

Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look

Common Opponents - Both teams battled Rose this year.  The Spartans took them on in the first game of the year, while New Hanover played them two weeks ago.  Both teams lost, with the Spartans falling 13-21 and the Wildcats falling 16-37.  The Spartans had trouble running the ball against Rose, but did well through the air.  Defensively the Spartans gave up 4.5 YPC and allowed just under 200 yards rushing.  The Spartans were down by 14 at the intermission, while the Wildcats were down by 12.  From this information, both teams were able to score in the second half, but the Spartan defense was able to stop Rose while New Hanover was not.  Based on overall score, when the games were played and how each defense played in the second half the advantage goes to the Spartans.

Statistically Speaking - Look for more of this breakdown in the future.

The Final Analysis

Offensively, both teams have been able to move the ball well on the ground and through the air, with a slight edge going to the Spartans in the rushing department and the Wildcats taking the edge in the passing game.  On the defensive side of the ball, the Spartans have been outstanding, especially during their win streak limiting the opposition to just 3.2 YPC and 5 YPA.  Both teams are averaging just around 23 points a game, but the Southern defense is allowing roughly seven points less per game than the Wildcats.

It's a long drive for the Wildcats and although they took care of business a year ago, that was a different team, one with a lot more confidence and 10 wins on the season.  Although the Spartans don't have their same win total, it's clear that they understand where they are and that they can compete with the best in the state.  Finishing second in the conference isn't sitting well with the Spartans and there is only one way to get that bad taste out of your mouth.

Look for this game to be a physical affair with the Spartans setting the tone early and their defense showcasing why they are one of the best in the PAC-6.  Offensively these teams are quite similar and defensive play will be the difference in the game.

DFBFan's Pick - New Hanover (6-5) at Southern Durham (5-6)

Southern Durham - 26

New Hanover - 17