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| PHOTO BY C.F. WARD |
The Knights first round competition are the Yellow Jackets out of Lee County, an at-large qualifier from the Tri-Nine Conference. The Yellow Jackets are on a four game losing streak that culminated last week with a 31-10 loss to Fuquay-Varina. During that stretch they've lost to Middle Creek, Panther Creek, Cary and Fuquay, the top half of the Tri-Nine and a group of teams that is sporting a 37 and 7 record. Lee County is under new leadership with Burton Cates taking over, previously of Eastern Randolph, and the Yellow Jackets are working to bring that same physical brand of football to Sanford that Cates was known for in Ramseur.
Northern struggled last week to move the ball on the ground with an overall lack of consistency. They showed spurts of positive movement with a physical rushing attack out of a spread look, but were unable to put three runs together in any sort of consistent nature to move the sticks multiple times. The passing attack was almost non-existent in the first half and it hurt the Knights as they tried to make-up for a no-gainer here and there. Defensively, the Hornet attack was too strong and too balanced and with little movement by the Knight offense they found themselves on the field a lot. The Yellow Jackets have been fairly balanced throughout the year on the offensive side of the ball and they struggled last week against Fuquay to find any real balance. Both teams sport solid defenses that will keep the game close and in reach for both come the fourth quarter. We're getting close to the first home playoff game in newly renovated Durham County Memorial Stadium...so let's get started.
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Lee County (6 - 5 overall, 4 - 4 conference)
Wins - Western Harnett (3A), Southern Lee (3A), Apex (4A), Holly Springs (4A), Green Hope (4A), Athens Drive (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 14 - 52 (0.21 WP); PF - 201, PA - 36
Losses - Richmond (4A), Middle Creek (4A), Cary (4A), Panther Creek (4A), Fuquay-Varina (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 47 - 8 (0.85 WP); PF - 51, PA - 125
Strength of Schedule - 66 of 98 4A teams; (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Athens Drive. This is tough - in part because statistics for Lee are a bit difficult to unearth, as it appears Lee County is not a fan of taking statistics and providing them for the media - but I'm going with Athens as they were probably the best competition they played and actually defeated. They had a solid game passing against AD, but didn't necessarily shine in any other category other than getting a win in a close ball game. This is one of those border-line games for Lee County and Athens and Lee came out on top making it a quality win for them.
Best Loss - Cary. One of the top teams in the area and they played them to a 7-0 loss. Offensively the Yellow Jackets weren't very good - period, but defensively they played quite well, limiting the Imps to less than 3.5 YPC and 3.3 YPA. The game was scoreless at the half and could have gone either way in part because of the strong play of the Lee County defensive unit.
Northern Durham (5 - 6 overall, 4 - 2 conference)
Wins - Rocky Mount (3A), Person (4A), Jordan (4A), Riverside (4A), ECH (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 16 - 39 (0.29 WP); PF - 169, PA - 83
Losses - Middle Creek (4A), Greensboro Page (4A), Millbrook (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Southern Durham (4A), Hillside (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 50 - 16 (0.78 WP); PF - 77, PA - 166
Strength of Schedule - 58 of 98 4A teams; (+8 since Week 7 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Jordan. The Knights captured a victory against a five win Falcon squad that had previously only fallen to undefeated Panther Creek. The verdict is still out on how good the Falcons really are and thus how good the Knights are for taking them out, but regardless, for a team that won zero games in 2009, this is a big win that puts them in sole possession of first place in the conference after two weeks. The Knight rushing attack was clicking, galloping for 191 yards and a 5.2 YPC average. Defensively, the Knights did well, halting the Falcons for just 87 yards rushing at a paltry 3.1 YPC average.
Previously - Rocky Mount. Even with the victory against Person, the Rocky Mount win is still a better victory when you look at how the Knights played statistically. Rushing production was the only place where Northern did better than how they performed against Rocky Mount.
Best Loss - Wake Forest-Rolesville. The Cougars have dominated local area football for a few years now and there was little reason for folks outside of the Northern camp to expect a close affair between these two, but at home in newly renovated Durham County Stadium, the Knights played a spirited game eventually falling to currently 5-0 WFR, 26 to 29.
Also considered - Southern Durham. The Knights played strong defense until the Spartans took over in the fourth quarter with some timely runs and a strong late game passing effort led by quarterback Dorian Belcher. The Spartans are one of the tougher teams the Knights have faced this year and they carried a six point lead into the fourth quarter and were knocking on the door for a second score before things began to unravel. Depending on seeding and how the pod system works out the Spartans should make some noise in the playoffs and that is a good sign for the Knights even with the close loss.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - The only common opponent between these two teams is Middle Creek. Both teams lost to the Mustangs, but the Knights played them to open the season, while the Yellow Jackets did not play them until the middle of their conference season. You would think that as the season has progressed that if the Knights had played the Mustangs around the same time that Lee played them that the game may have played out slightly different. Northern lost 14 to 31, while Lee County fell by one point 20 to 21. Both teams were held to under their season rushing averages in the running game, while the Knights managed more yards per attempt against the Mustangs compared to their average. Defensively, both teams held the Mustangs rushing attack in-check, while the Knights did a slightly better job in stopping the potent Mustang passing attack. Offensively, both teams appear similar against a common opponent, while the Northern defense appears to have a slight edge. Slight edge to the Knights.
Statistically Speaking - The Knights are averaging just over 22 points a game on the year while allowing just under 23 a game. In their five victories they are putting up close to 34 a game and yielding just under 17, while in their six losses they have been outscored roughly 13 to 28. In their wins they've scored 21 or more points in all of their games, while they've been held to single digits in three of their six losses. The Yellow Jackets are averaging just under 23 points a game and allowing just under 15 a game. In their six wins they have put up around 34 a game and allowed just six to their opponents. They've shut-out two of their opponents and held six of their opponents to seven or fewer points. They've been shut-out twice offensively, but otherwise have scored 20 or more points in every other game but one (Fuquay, 10).
The Yellow Jackets offense has been fairly balanced this year putting up roughly 1100 yards rushing and passing this year. On average they are posting 123 yards per game on the ground and 120 yards per game through the air. They've had trouble running the ball on average as they've only been able to manage just over 3 YPC on the ground. Through the air, especially in their wins, they've faired much better, averaging around 6.5 YPA. In their losses they've had trouble running the ball, averaging around 2 YPC and they've also struggled through the air where they've posted just 3.6 YPA, compared to over 10 YPA in their wins.
Defensively, the Yellow Jackets, similar to the Knights have posted a strong rush defense. They are allowing just around 118 YPG on the ground for roughly 3.9 YPC. They've had three games where they limited their opposition to less than 100 yards rushing and seven games where they held teams to 125 yards rushing or less. Through the air, teams have had a bit more success, tallying just over 6 YPA and around 128 YPG. In their losses they are giving up on average 4 YPA more than in their victories.
Lee County has found pay dirt a bit more through the air, tallying roughly 1.8 aerial scores per game to about 0.9 on the ground. They've yet to score on special teams this year and have scored twice defensively. The defense is allowing just 0.8 rushing scores a game and 0.9 passing scores. They have allowed one special teams score and one score due to an offensive miscue.
Northern's offense has relied more heavily on the run and is picking up about 134 YPG, while augmenting this effort with about 112 YPG through the air. They are averaging around 4 YPC and 5 YPA. In the passing game these averages are about the same win or lose, with the Knights picking up roughly 17 more yards a game in the passing department in games lost compared to those won. More of a disparity exists in the rushing side of things where the Knights tally roughly two more yards per carry in their wins as compared to their losses. In their five victories they have run for 125 yards or more in each contest and 191 or more in three of those victories. In their losses they've been held to 72 yards or less in three of six games. Overall yardage gained in the rushing department has also been significantly different compared to wins and losses where the Knights are posting roughly 100 more yards per game in their wins.
The Northern defense has been strong especially in their wins this year. Overall, they are giving up around 139 YPG rushing and 143 YPG passing. On the ground teams are picking up 4.1 YPC and 6.6 YPA. In their wins they are only allowing 2.4 YPC and have held opponents to 118 yards or less in all five games. Through the air, they are allowing roughly two yards less per attempt in their wins compared to their losses.
The Knights are balanced when it comes to scoring, reaching the end zone 15 times on the ground to 18 through the air. Their defense has also contributed to the effort with four scores of their own. Defensively, they are allowing 17 scores on the ground and 13 through the air while also yielding two special teams scores and four additional touchdowns due to offensive miscues.
All Those Other Items
We've talked a lot about momentum and neither of these teams are feeling a lot of momentum at the moment. Northern is coming off back-to-back losses to Southern Durham and Hillside, while the Yellow Jackets have lost four in a row. In all six cases, both teams played quality competition and it would be tough to rank those six teams as they are all considered six of the top teams in the area. A big question tonight will be which coaching staff is able to get their teams to forget about the past and focus on a new season where it's one and done if you don't get the job done - and in all honesty nothing else from before matters.
What is interesting is to look at those six games, for the Yellow Jackets, their best rushing performance in the four games was against Fuquay and they only managed 3.6 YPC. Northern was completely shut-down against Hillside, but against a very athletic Southern squad managed over 4 YPC and over 150 yards on the ground. Through the air, the Knights had two of their worst games passing against the Spartans and Hornets picking up less than 4 YPA in both contests. Lee County, which had gone over 100 yards passing in essentially all of their victories also struggled in their losses and had one of their worst passing efforts against the Bengals to close out the regular season.
The Final Analysis
This game could go either way and in many ways this game probably was decided this week in practice. Either team has the capability to beat the other and the question really is which of the two teams believes in itself the most, believes in the guy standing next to them the most, believes in the coaching staff the most and ultimately believes that no matter what has happened in the past few weeks, believes they have the team that can walk off the field with the victory. Whichever staff was able to communicate this the best to their respective team will maybe have the most important part of the game-plan working in their favor.
Even with the late year losses, you have to believe that the Knights after such a rough season a year ago believe that if they do certain things correct can compete with a lot of teams out there and when you look at the make-up of Lee County they would be one of the those teams. They know they've played two very good teams and in one case against Southern quite possibly could have won. For the Yellow Jackets after starting out on such a strong streak, the toll of losing four in a row, even against very tough competition is a tough thing to get past and how well the Lee County players are able to do that for tonight's game is critically important.
Both rush defenses are stout, but the Northern offense in the rushing department has faired better on average compared to the Yellow Jackets. Lee has done a better job through the air but Northern's pass defense has been better on average between their wins and losses and have scored on multiple occasions with big plays from their secondary.
This should be one of the better games in the first round of the 4A state playoffs and there is little reason to believe it won't be a close game come the fourth quarter. As they approach the final turn, Northern's defense will play just a bit better than Lee's and their offense, specifically their running game will be able to move the ball just a bit better than the overall Lee offense. Put that recipe together and the Knights move on in a close one.
DFBFan's Pick - Lee County (6-5) at Northern Durham (5-6)
Northern Durham - 22
Lee County - 13
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - The only common opponent between these two teams is Middle Creek. Both teams lost to the Mustangs, but the Knights played them to open the season, while the Yellow Jackets did not play them until the middle of their conference season. You would think that as the season has progressed that if the Knights had played the Mustangs around the same time that Lee played them that the game may have played out slightly different. Northern lost 14 to 31, while Lee County fell by one point 20 to 21. Both teams were held to under their season rushing averages in the running game, while the Knights managed more yards per attempt against the Mustangs compared to their average. Defensively, both teams held the Mustangs rushing attack in-check, while the Knights did a slightly better job in stopping the potent Mustang passing attack. Offensively, both teams appear similar against a common opponent, while the Northern defense appears to have a slight edge. Slight edge to the Knights.
Statistically Speaking - The Knights are averaging just over 22 points a game on the year while allowing just under 23 a game. In their five victories they are putting up close to 34 a game and yielding just under 17, while in their six losses they have been outscored roughly 13 to 28. In their wins they've scored 21 or more points in all of their games, while they've been held to single digits in three of their six losses. The Yellow Jackets are averaging just under 23 points a game and allowing just under 15 a game. In their six wins they have put up around 34 a game and allowed just six to their opponents. They've shut-out two of their opponents and held six of their opponents to seven or fewer points. They've been shut-out twice offensively, but otherwise have scored 20 or more points in every other game but one (Fuquay, 10).
The Yellow Jackets offense has been fairly balanced this year putting up roughly 1100 yards rushing and passing this year. On average they are posting 123 yards per game on the ground and 120 yards per game through the air. They've had trouble running the ball on average as they've only been able to manage just over 3 YPC on the ground. Through the air, especially in their wins, they've faired much better, averaging around 6.5 YPA. In their losses they've had trouble running the ball, averaging around 2 YPC and they've also struggled through the air where they've posted just 3.6 YPA, compared to over 10 YPA in their wins.
Defensively, the Yellow Jackets, similar to the Knights have posted a strong rush defense. They are allowing just around 118 YPG on the ground for roughly 3.9 YPC. They've had three games where they limited their opposition to less than 100 yards rushing and seven games where they held teams to 125 yards rushing or less. Through the air, teams have had a bit more success, tallying just over 6 YPA and around 128 YPG. In their losses they are giving up on average 4 YPA more than in their victories.
Lee County has found pay dirt a bit more through the air, tallying roughly 1.8 aerial scores per game to about 0.9 on the ground. They've yet to score on special teams this year and have scored twice defensively. The defense is allowing just 0.8 rushing scores a game and 0.9 passing scores. They have allowed one special teams score and one score due to an offensive miscue.
Northern's offense has relied more heavily on the run and is picking up about 134 YPG, while augmenting this effort with about 112 YPG through the air. They are averaging around 4 YPC and 5 YPA. In the passing game these averages are about the same win or lose, with the Knights picking up roughly 17 more yards a game in the passing department in games lost compared to those won. More of a disparity exists in the rushing side of things where the Knights tally roughly two more yards per carry in their wins as compared to their losses. In their five victories they have run for 125 yards or more in each contest and 191 or more in three of those victories. In their losses they've been held to 72 yards or less in three of six games. Overall yardage gained in the rushing department has also been significantly different compared to wins and losses where the Knights are posting roughly 100 more yards per game in their wins.
The Northern defense has been strong especially in their wins this year. Overall, they are giving up around 139 YPG rushing and 143 YPG passing. On the ground teams are picking up 4.1 YPC and 6.6 YPA. In their wins they are only allowing 2.4 YPC and have held opponents to 118 yards or less in all five games. Through the air, they are allowing roughly two yards less per attempt in their wins compared to their losses.
The Knights are balanced when it comes to scoring, reaching the end zone 15 times on the ground to 18 through the air. Their defense has also contributed to the effort with four scores of their own. Defensively, they are allowing 17 scores on the ground and 13 through the air while also yielding two special teams scores and four additional touchdowns due to offensive miscues.
All Those Other Items
We've talked a lot about momentum and neither of these teams are feeling a lot of momentum at the moment. Northern is coming off back-to-back losses to Southern Durham and Hillside, while the Yellow Jackets have lost four in a row. In all six cases, both teams played quality competition and it would be tough to rank those six teams as they are all considered six of the top teams in the area. A big question tonight will be which coaching staff is able to get their teams to forget about the past and focus on a new season where it's one and done if you don't get the job done - and in all honesty nothing else from before matters.
What is interesting is to look at those six games, for the Yellow Jackets, their best rushing performance in the four games was against Fuquay and they only managed 3.6 YPC. Northern was completely shut-down against Hillside, but against a very athletic Southern squad managed over 4 YPC and over 150 yards on the ground. Through the air, the Knights had two of their worst games passing against the Spartans and Hornets picking up less than 4 YPA in both contests. Lee County, which had gone over 100 yards passing in essentially all of their victories also struggled in their losses and had one of their worst passing efforts against the Bengals to close out the regular season.
The Final Analysis
This game could go either way and in many ways this game probably was decided this week in practice. Either team has the capability to beat the other and the question really is which of the two teams believes in itself the most, believes in the guy standing next to them the most, believes in the coaching staff the most and ultimately believes that no matter what has happened in the past few weeks, believes they have the team that can walk off the field with the victory. Whichever staff was able to communicate this the best to their respective team will maybe have the most important part of the game-plan working in their favor.
Even with the late year losses, you have to believe that the Knights after such a rough season a year ago believe that if they do certain things correct can compete with a lot of teams out there and when you look at the make-up of Lee County they would be one of the those teams. They know they've played two very good teams and in one case against Southern quite possibly could have won. For the Yellow Jackets after starting out on such a strong streak, the toll of losing four in a row, even against very tough competition is a tough thing to get past and how well the Lee County players are able to do that for tonight's game is critically important.
Both rush defenses are stout, but the Northern offense in the rushing department has faired better on average compared to the Yellow Jackets. Lee has done a better job through the air but Northern's pass defense has been better on average between their wins and losses and have scored on multiple occasions with big plays from their secondary.
This should be one of the better games in the first round of the 4A state playoffs and there is little reason to believe it won't be a close game come the fourth quarter. As they approach the final turn, Northern's defense will play just a bit better than Lee's and their offense, specifically their running game will be able to move the ball just a bit better than the overall Lee offense. Put that recipe together and the Knights move on in a close one.
DFBFan's Pick - Lee County (6-5) at Northern Durham (5-6)
Northern Durham - 22
Lee County - 13
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