Jordan finds themselves in somewhat familiar territory as they enter the playoffs this year with their opponent being one of the top draws in the bracket. A year ago they traveled to a surprising #4 seed Pinecrest squad, while in 2008 they headed to #3 seed Wake Forest-Rolesville and in 2007 to #1 overall seed Garner - all ending in first round losses after having faired well in the playoffs in prior years. Seventy-First was bumped in the state playoffs a year ago to eventual 4A runner-up Harnett Central, but back in 2008 took home the 4A crown after defeating Douglas Byrd in an all Fayetteville Final.
The Durham Falcons' haven't been exceptionally good in any one category this year aside from a relatively strong pass defense, but at the same time they haven't been exceptionally poor in any area either. They've been about middle of the road, which is fitting for where they ended up in conference play at 3-3. The Fayetteville Falcons have been exceptional in two distinct categories - rushing offense and scoring defense. Seventy-First has run for over 2500 yards on the year and are averaging over 300 yards per game on the ground. Defensively, in their 10 victories they've allowed just 10.5 points per game.
Both teams sport play-makers that can make momentum changing plays occur in an instant. Jordan's T.J. Thorpe had a huge game last week against Riverside with almost 300 all-purpose yards and two scores. He's dangerous on both sides of the ball, scoring on a running play last week and returning an interception 99 yards for a score and he can hurt you in special teams as one of the top returners in the history of North Carolina football. Seventy-First sports two impressive running backs in Maurice Scruggs and Tyrel Bryant-Dove and oh by the way are coached by one of the legends in the game in Bob Paroli.
For the Falcons - this will be a very physical game - the time is approaching...so let's get started.
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Charles E. Jordan (7 - 4 overall, 3 - 3 conference)
Wins - Orange (3A), Green Hope (4A), Greensboro Grimsley (4A), Enloe (4A), ECH (4A), Person (4A), Riverside (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 10 - 67 (0.13 WP); PF - 225, PA - 73
Losses - Panther Creek (4A), Northern Durham (4A), Southern Durham (4A), Hillside (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 31 - 13 (0.70 WP); PF - 56, PA - 113
Strength of Schedule - 96 of 98 4A teams; (No Change from Week 6 of Conference Play) (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Person. Sometimes statistics really can be thrown out the window. I've talked often about games teams win and lose and what that means to their make-up - their DNA. Well, the win against Person, although not anywhere near as dominant a performance as what they put forward against the Wildcats showed something different; against a team that had been improving and in many ways was about even with the Falcons, they could get the win. Moreover, they were down late and in many regards were being beaten in most areas of the game, but found something deep down to make it happen late. Teams that are working to be better than average win these games, even when it seems as though nothing is going right and on that particular night the Falcons made all of the plays necessary late to get the W.
Previously - East Chapel Hill. This victory is close to that of the Orange victory in dominance, but a few items push this to the Best Win category. First, the Falcons dismantled the East rush defense to the tune of 8.3 YPC and 323 yards. Impressive, whether or not the competition is good or not against the run. This is something you expect from a good or dominant team, if the opposition can't stop the run, you run it and you run it at a blistering pace and 8.3 YPC is blistering. Also impressive was how the Falcon pass defense stepped up and short-circuited Air-Renner. Prior to the contest the Wildcats were averaging over 300 yards a game through the air and were limited to just 174 yards. Yards are important, but even more impressive, the Falcons' allowing just 3.7 YPA through the air. The Falcon pass defense continues to impress.
Previously - Orange. The most dominating game they've played was their first game. The Falcons averaged over six and half yards per carry rushing the ball while picking up close to 15 yards per attempt through the air. Four of their scores were on the ground and complimented by two more through the air. Add in two additional defensive scores, a fumble recovery by Thorpe and an interception return by safety Phil Williamson and the 50-6 tsunami is about as complete as you could be, no less in your first showing out the gate.
Best Loss - Panther Creek. The Catamounts are one of the better teams in the RDU area and with their balanced offensive attack and attacking defense have a solid chance of capturing the competitive Tri-9 crown while also being a legitimate play-off contender. The Falcons turned the ball over in key stretches against PC and in general the Catamounts responded. Add to that, Thorpe exiting the game for the entire fourth quarter of play and the outcome could have been different.
Best Loss - Panther Creek. The Catamounts are one of the better teams in the RDU area and with their balanced offensive attack and attacking defense have a solid chance of capturing the competitive Tri-9 crown while also being a legitimate play-off contender. The Falcons turned the ball over in key stretches against PC and in general the Catamounts responded. Add to that, Thorpe exiting the game for the entire fourth quarter of play and the outcome could have been different.
Seventy-First (10 - 1 overall, 6 - 0 conference)
Wins - Hoggard (4A), Hoke County (4A), Southern Lee (3A), Laney (4A), Pine Forest (4A), E.E. Smith (4A), Terry Sanford (4A), Cape Fear (4A), Jack Britt (4A), South View (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 44 - 66 (0.40 WP); PF - 380, PA - 105
Losses - Scotland County (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 7 - 4 (0.64 WP); PF - 14, PA - 21
Strength of Schedule - 61 of 98 4A teams; (according to Drew Pasteur at the Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Jack Britt. The Falcons took down one of the top teams in the state in a back-and-forth contest that saw the score tied at halftime 20-20 only to end in a close 36 to 33 victory. The Falcons rushed for over 400 yards against the Buccaneers and limited their rushing attack to just 4.4 YPC, but were hurt through the air allowing 307 yards at 19.2 YPA. Very good teams compete in these high caliber games and win more then they lose.
Best Loss - Scotland County. Their only loss of the year happened the first week of the season. The Falcons rushed for over 6 YPC, but couldn't stop the Scots offense that tallied 6.6 YPC and over 10 YPA. In the end, only eight points stood between the Falcons and an undefeated regular season.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - There are no common opponents between these two teams. The only connection is between Jordan and Hillside and the fact that the Hornets played both E.E. Smith and South View this year, both teams that Seventy-First also played. Jordan lost to Hillside 34 to 14 earlier in the year and the Hornets dismantled both Fayetteville schools, 53-13 against the Tigers and 48-0 over the Golden Bulls. For Seventy-First, they dispatched both teams as well. Defeating E.E. Smith 40-12 and South View 28-7. Both contests for the Hornets were early game tilts while they were mid and late year games for the Falcons. This in part speaks to Hillside's strength early. It's always tough to draw conclusions in these situations, but on the surface it appears that Hillside is roughly a stronger team than Seventy-First, but Hillside still defeated Jordan by 20. Edge to the Falcons from Fayetteville.
Statistically Speaking - Jordan had a scoring bonanza to close out the regular season posting 51 points against Riverside to put them at 281 total points on the year, good for just under 26 a game. Their defense is giving up just under 17 a game. They've scored in double digits in every game this year with their lowest point total coming on four occasions, all losses, at 14 points. Defensively, they've yet to shut a team out, but have limited six of their opponents to 13 or less points. Seventy-First is averaging just under 36 a game after scoring 394 this year and are allowing just 11.5 per game. They've scored 28 or more in all 10 of their victories this year and have shut-out three teams while holding two other to under seven points. For Jordan, in their seven wins they are scoring roughly 32 points a game and allowing the opposition just over 10, while in defeat they have only managed two scores a game and are allowing the opposition close to 29 a game.
The Jordan offense has been balanced this year with only 23 total yards separating their overall figures! They have rushed for 1534 yards while passing for 1557 yards. That is good enough for roughly 139 YPG on the ground and 142 YPG through the air. They are averaging 4.5 per carry and 6.4 per attempt. As has been the case throughout the year, a huge disparity has existed in their rushing game depending on games they've won or lost. In their seven victories they average roughly 5.6 YPC, while in their four losses they have been held to just under 2 YPC. They've rushed for 87 or less yards in all of their losses, while aside from a rough performance against Grimsley, they have rushed for 146 yards or more in all of their victories. Through the air, they've been fairly consistent whether they've won or lost, averaging roughly 144 YPG in their seven wins and 137 YPG in their four losses. They've thrown for 100 yards or more in every game but two this year (Green Hope and Person) and have thrown for 150 or more yards in seven games.
Defensively, Jordan has been one of the better defenses in the PAC-6 in 2010. They are giving up around 146 YPG on the ground and 115 YPG through the air at 4.7 YPC and 5.0 YPA. Although they've given up roughly 80 more yards rushing per game in their losses, they have only allowed about a half a yard more per attempt. Through the air, in their wins they've given up about 123 YPG and in their losses about 101 YPG. They've held three teams to less than 100 yards rushing and four teams to less than 100 yards passing.
Jordan has also been balanced when it comes to scoring, punching it in 20 times on the ground and 16 through the air. They've added five defensive scores, including Thorpe's interception return for a TD this past week. Defensively, they've allowed 12 scores on the ground and 10 through the air while being hit once for a special teams score and three times because of offensive miscues.
Unfortunately, finding statistics for Seventy-First was about as difficult as you can imagine - actually, you probably can't, because one thing I learned this past week is that we are very fortunate here in the RDU area with sources like the News & Observer and Durham Herald-Sun that write stories about the games, but also provide great stats!! This is not the case throughout the rest of the state and Fayetteville is one of those locations where obtaining stats is about like finding a needle in a haystack. For Seventy-First, out of eleven games I was able using multiple sources to find exactly two games where I had all of the statistics I usually acquire, Hoggard and Laney (and that's thanks to Wilmington's Star News). Aside from those two games the stats for Seventy-First are limited at best, but here we go.
Offensively, it's clear the Falcons can run the ball and can run the ball well. Even while missing three games, the Falcons have rushed for 2459 yards and are averaging over 300 a game. In games I was able to find information for they've rushed for 315, 496, 329, 195, 253, 232, 402 and 237 yards - you do the the math, even if they rushed for nothing, not likely in the games I'm missing they still have some impressive performances. Just as clear that they like to run the ball is that they also don't like to pass the ball - it's clear that Paroli must be friends with Madden who hates to fly as well. The statistics on the passing side of things are even less, but in the four games where I have stats, the most yards they threw for was 71 against Scotland County and they typically threw the ball less than 10 times a game.
Defensively, the stats are a bit better. On the year they've given up roughly 113 YPG on the ground and about 145 through the air. They are yielding just 4.8 per carry on the ground and 7.4 per attempt through the air. They've limited at least six of their opponents to less than 100 yards rushing and at least four of them to less than 100 yards passing.
The Falcons have appeared to score most often on the ground where they've broke the plane 27 times while adding at least four passing scores and two through their defensive play. On the defensive side of the ball, they've allowed less than 20 total scores, including roughly 0.7 on the ground per game and one through the air per game.
All Those Other Items
Although Seventy-First plays in 'the tough' Fayetteville area, when you look at who they've beat, only four of their ten victories were against winning teams. Moreover, three of those four ended the season at 6-5. Their strength of schedule speaks to this has it is in the lower half of 4A teams. Of course Jordan's schedule hasn't been too good either and they did not defeat a team with a winning record this year and lost to two teams with sub-500 marks.
It's clear that Seventy-First has a strong rushing attack and that their passing attack is something they would rather not mess with, while Jordan has shown the ability to do both, although against better competition they've had a tough go of it on the ground. Defensively, Jordan appears to have an edge in comparison and that will be important as they try to stop the Seventy-First rushing attack. On the flip side, Seventy-First has struggled a bit stopping teams through the air, something the Falcons from Durham might be able to exploit.
There is no doubt this game will be incredibly physical and I think it's safe to say the most physical game that Jordan has experienced this year. On the other side, for Seventy-First, you would think that they've faced some highly aggressive and smash mouth type football on a number of occasions this year.
Seventy-First hasn't been that great in the playoffs over the past five to six years aside from their state championship run two years ago and Jordan has struggled in the first round the last three years with first round exits, all games where the Falcons had to go on the road and play highly seeded competition.
The Final Analysis
Travel to Fayetteville for any team is a big thing, when you haven't had a ton of travel during the regular season, and Jordan falls into that category. They have also not faced the brutal attack they'll see this evening, another advantage for Seventy-First.
Jordan has been consistent in a number of ways this year. First, they've beaten teams that everyone, I mean everyone expected them to beat. And on the flip side, they've lost every game that everyone thought they would lose. But what might be most telling is that against teams in the middle, slightly above average or slightly below average, they've won a few and lost a few. Tonight, they'll be facing a team that is an above average team and some might say one of the top 10 in the state. That outlook doesn't look good if you go on past history and trends.
Jordan has struggled to run the ball in their losses this year and they'll need to find a way tonight to at the very least keep the Seventy-First defense honest so that even if they can't move the ball on the ground consistently that they'll still be able to throw the ball enough to move the sticks and score. On the other side, the Falcon defense has shown in spurts they can play quality defense against some good teams and in general have been consistent in their play and tonight they'll need to short-circuit the Seventy-First rushing attack. It's clear that the Falcons don't want to pass the ball, so it would be best to make sure that is what they have to do to beat Jordan this evening. If the Falcons have trouble stopping Seventy-First's rush attack out of their base alignments tonight, look for them to move another safety into the box and play their corners on islands and force Seventy-First to beat you running the ball by beating you nine on nine or one on one through the air.
The formula for this game will be easy. If things don't go well early for Jordan, then it could get ugly. But if Jordan is able to limit Seventy-First on offense and Thorpe can lead the Falcons to some early scores we could have a game on our hands!
DFBFan's Pick - Jordan (7-4) at Seventy-First (10-1)
Seventy-First - 28
Jordan - 14
Best Loss - Scotland County. Their only loss of the year happened the first week of the season. The Falcons rushed for over 6 YPC, but couldn't stop the Scots offense that tallied 6.6 YPC and over 10 YPA. In the end, only eight points stood between the Falcons and an undefeated regular season.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - There are no common opponents between these two teams. The only connection is between Jordan and Hillside and the fact that the Hornets played both E.E. Smith and South View this year, both teams that Seventy-First also played. Jordan lost to Hillside 34 to 14 earlier in the year and the Hornets dismantled both Fayetteville schools, 53-13 against the Tigers and 48-0 over the Golden Bulls. For Seventy-First, they dispatched both teams as well. Defeating E.E. Smith 40-12 and South View 28-7. Both contests for the Hornets were early game tilts while they were mid and late year games for the Falcons. This in part speaks to Hillside's strength early. It's always tough to draw conclusions in these situations, but on the surface it appears that Hillside is roughly a stronger team than Seventy-First, but Hillside still defeated Jordan by 20. Edge to the Falcons from Fayetteville.
Statistically Speaking - Jordan had a scoring bonanza to close out the regular season posting 51 points against Riverside to put them at 281 total points on the year, good for just under 26 a game. Their defense is giving up just under 17 a game. They've scored in double digits in every game this year with their lowest point total coming on four occasions, all losses, at 14 points. Defensively, they've yet to shut a team out, but have limited six of their opponents to 13 or less points. Seventy-First is averaging just under 36 a game after scoring 394 this year and are allowing just 11.5 per game. They've scored 28 or more in all 10 of their victories this year and have shut-out three teams while holding two other to under seven points. For Jordan, in their seven wins they are scoring roughly 32 points a game and allowing the opposition just over 10, while in defeat they have only managed two scores a game and are allowing the opposition close to 29 a game.
The Jordan offense has been balanced this year with only 23 total yards separating their overall figures! They have rushed for 1534 yards while passing for 1557 yards. That is good enough for roughly 139 YPG on the ground and 142 YPG through the air. They are averaging 4.5 per carry and 6.4 per attempt. As has been the case throughout the year, a huge disparity has existed in their rushing game depending on games they've won or lost. In their seven victories they average roughly 5.6 YPC, while in their four losses they have been held to just under 2 YPC. They've rushed for 87 or less yards in all of their losses, while aside from a rough performance against Grimsley, they have rushed for 146 yards or more in all of their victories. Through the air, they've been fairly consistent whether they've won or lost, averaging roughly 144 YPG in their seven wins and 137 YPG in their four losses. They've thrown for 100 yards or more in every game but two this year (Green Hope and Person) and have thrown for 150 or more yards in seven games.
Defensively, Jordan has been one of the better defenses in the PAC-6 in 2010. They are giving up around 146 YPG on the ground and 115 YPG through the air at 4.7 YPC and 5.0 YPA. Although they've given up roughly 80 more yards rushing per game in their losses, they have only allowed about a half a yard more per attempt. Through the air, in their wins they've given up about 123 YPG and in their losses about 101 YPG. They've held three teams to less than 100 yards rushing and four teams to less than 100 yards passing.
Jordan has also been balanced when it comes to scoring, punching it in 20 times on the ground and 16 through the air. They've added five defensive scores, including Thorpe's interception return for a TD this past week. Defensively, they've allowed 12 scores on the ground and 10 through the air while being hit once for a special teams score and three times because of offensive miscues.
Unfortunately, finding statistics for Seventy-First was about as difficult as you can imagine - actually, you probably can't, because one thing I learned this past week is that we are very fortunate here in the RDU area with sources like the News & Observer and Durham Herald-Sun that write stories about the games, but also provide great stats!! This is not the case throughout the rest of the state and Fayetteville is one of those locations where obtaining stats is about like finding a needle in a haystack. For Seventy-First, out of eleven games I was able using multiple sources to find exactly two games where I had all of the statistics I usually acquire, Hoggard and Laney (and that's thanks to Wilmington's Star News). Aside from those two games the stats for Seventy-First are limited at best, but here we go.
Offensively, it's clear the Falcons can run the ball and can run the ball well. Even while missing three games, the Falcons have rushed for 2459 yards and are averaging over 300 a game. In games I was able to find information for they've rushed for 315, 496, 329, 195, 253, 232, 402 and 237 yards - you do the the math, even if they rushed for nothing, not likely in the games I'm missing they still have some impressive performances. Just as clear that they like to run the ball is that they also don't like to pass the ball - it's clear that Paroli must be friends with Madden who hates to fly as well. The statistics on the passing side of things are even less, but in the four games where I have stats, the most yards they threw for was 71 against Scotland County and they typically threw the ball less than 10 times a game.
Defensively, the stats are a bit better. On the year they've given up roughly 113 YPG on the ground and about 145 through the air. They are yielding just 4.8 per carry on the ground and 7.4 per attempt through the air. They've limited at least six of their opponents to less than 100 yards rushing and at least four of them to less than 100 yards passing.
The Falcons have appeared to score most often on the ground where they've broke the plane 27 times while adding at least four passing scores and two through their defensive play. On the defensive side of the ball, they've allowed less than 20 total scores, including roughly 0.7 on the ground per game and one through the air per game.
All Those Other Items
Although Seventy-First plays in 'the tough' Fayetteville area, when you look at who they've beat, only four of their ten victories were against winning teams. Moreover, three of those four ended the season at 6-5. Their strength of schedule speaks to this has it is in the lower half of 4A teams. Of course Jordan's schedule hasn't been too good either and they did not defeat a team with a winning record this year and lost to two teams with sub-500 marks.
It's clear that Seventy-First has a strong rushing attack and that their passing attack is something they would rather not mess with, while Jordan has shown the ability to do both, although against better competition they've had a tough go of it on the ground. Defensively, Jordan appears to have an edge in comparison and that will be important as they try to stop the Seventy-First rushing attack. On the flip side, Seventy-First has struggled a bit stopping teams through the air, something the Falcons from Durham might be able to exploit.
There is no doubt this game will be incredibly physical and I think it's safe to say the most physical game that Jordan has experienced this year. On the other side, for Seventy-First, you would think that they've faced some highly aggressive and smash mouth type football on a number of occasions this year.
Seventy-First hasn't been that great in the playoffs over the past five to six years aside from their state championship run two years ago and Jordan has struggled in the first round the last three years with first round exits, all games where the Falcons had to go on the road and play highly seeded competition.
The Final Analysis
Travel to Fayetteville for any team is a big thing, when you haven't had a ton of travel during the regular season, and Jordan falls into that category. They have also not faced the brutal attack they'll see this evening, another advantage for Seventy-First.
Jordan has been consistent in a number of ways this year. First, they've beaten teams that everyone, I mean everyone expected them to beat. And on the flip side, they've lost every game that everyone thought they would lose. But what might be most telling is that against teams in the middle, slightly above average or slightly below average, they've won a few and lost a few. Tonight, they'll be facing a team that is an above average team and some might say one of the top 10 in the state. That outlook doesn't look good if you go on past history and trends.
Jordan has struggled to run the ball in their losses this year and they'll need to find a way tonight to at the very least keep the Seventy-First defense honest so that even if they can't move the ball on the ground consistently that they'll still be able to throw the ball enough to move the sticks and score. On the other side, the Falcon defense has shown in spurts they can play quality defense against some good teams and in general have been consistent in their play and tonight they'll need to short-circuit the Seventy-First rushing attack. It's clear that the Falcons don't want to pass the ball, so it would be best to make sure that is what they have to do to beat Jordan this evening. If the Falcons have trouble stopping Seventy-First's rush attack out of their base alignments tonight, look for them to move another safety into the box and play their corners on islands and force Seventy-First to beat you running the ball by beating you nine on nine or one on one through the air.
The formula for this game will be easy. If things don't go well early for Jordan, then it could get ugly. But if Jordan is able to limit Seventy-First on offense and Thorpe can lead the Falcons to some early scores we could have a game on our hands!
DFBFan's Pick - Jordan (7-4) at Seventy-First (10-1)
Seventy-First - 28
Jordan - 14
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