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| PHOTO BY JACK TARR |
Southern found themselves in a real dog-fight last week in their battle against the Wildcats as they were unable to generate a huge amount of offense on the ground or through the air. Although they managed over 100 yards on the ground at just under 4 YPC they were completely shut down through the air. Their rush defense came to play and halted the Wildcat rushing attack to only 42 yards on the night at a paltry 2.1 YPC. Special teams were the difference as the Spartans returned a punt in the first half to capture an early lead. For the Bulldogs, they found themselves down by 13 at the intermission last week against a Harnett Central squad that just two weeks earlier they handily defeated 43-6, but it wasn't to be for the Trojans and the Bulldogs rallied in the second half to notch a 15 point victory and set-up tonight's show down between the Bull City and Wake County.
Traditionally, both of these teams have always been incredibly athletic and this year is no different. Both sidelines have players that can literally turn not-much, into an incredibly dynamic play and the team that is able to limit the play making ability of the other will have an advantage this evening. Offensively, both teams have had similar success running the ball, but have done well to complement their focused rushing attack with a better than average passing attack. On the defensive side of the ball, both have been stingy and are considered two of the better defenses in the area.
Hard-hitting and fast-paced are two phrases that will most likely describe this back-and-forth tilt this evening...the opening whistle is approaching...so let's get started.
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Southern Durham - (6 - 6 overall, 5 - 1 conference)
Wins - Person (4A), Jordan (4A), Riverside (4A), ECH (4A), Northern Durham (4A), New Hanover (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 24 - 37 (0.35 WP); PF - 189, PA - 60
Losses - JH Rose (4A), Middle Creek (4A), Wake Forest-Rolesville (4A), Douglas Byrd (4A), Millbrook (4A), Hillside (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 55 - 17 (0.76 WP); PF - 82, PA - 120
Strength of Schedule - 49 of 98 4A teams (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Person. It was clear after seeing the Spartans in person that what we had expected was at least in part true. They had played top-notch competition and simply were unable to get that last first down or negate a late penalty or turnover to get a win. That all changed when they stepped onto the field against a Rocket team that simply didn't have the fire-power or athletic ability to compete. The Spartans exploded on the offensive side of the ball, looking like a completely different team, with 264 yards rushing and over 7 YPC, while adding 160 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Defensively, a fast an athletic group, shined, limiting the Rocket rush attack to under 3 YPC
Honorable Mention - East Chapel Hill. Only because of the sheer offensive numbers the Spartans accumulated - over 600 total yards of offense.
Best Loss - Hillside. We know Southern has played an incredible schedule, now considered by computer-guru Pasteur the #1 toughest schedule in 4A ball and oh by the way, #1 overall for every school in the state of NC, all classifications (prior to Hillside game). On Friday night, they did what they've done all year long, play tough, competitive football against quality teams and then find themselves in the position late to get their first victory of the 2010 season against arguably one of the top 10 4A teams in the state. Statistically, it wasn't a great night for the Spartans as they were only better than their season averages in the rush per attempt category, picking up 5.2 YPC versus a season average of 3.0 YPC. Some could argue taking Judd's 80 yard run out of the mix would show that statistically they really struggled (it was a bit of an outlier) and those folks would have a valid gripe. Still, the Spartans did what they needed as the game progressed based on where the game was in that moment and almost took the victory.
Previously - Byrd. Almost all of Southern's defeats have been competitive, but the contest against Byrd had the Spartans leading 7-6 at halftime and it wasn't until late that Byrd made the plays to take home the victory. The Spartan offense picked up a season high of 224 yards through the air and had their second best rushing total of the year although in both cases they had a high number of attempts. Defensively the Spartans limited Byrd to just over 200 yards of offense. As with most of their losses they appear to be close, but not close enough to pulling out the W.
Southeast Raleigh - (9 - 3 overall, 6 - 1 conference)
Wins - Sanderson (4A), Enloe (4A), Clayton (4A), Knightdale (4A), Smithfield-Selma (4A), East Wake (4A), Harnett Central (4A) [regular season], West Johnston (4A), Harnett Central (4A) [1st round of playoffs]; Records of Teams Combined - 26 - 64 (0.29 WP); PF - 344, PA - 97
Losses - Holly Springs (4A), New Hanover (4A), Garner (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 18 - 17 (0.51 WP); PF - 49, PA - 62
Strength of Schedule - 83 of 98 4A teams (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Harnett Central - First Round of the Playoffs. Most of the Bulldogs victories came against teams with losing records, but the victory last week against Harnett Central was big in a number of ways. The Bulldogs put together an awesome rushing effort to the tune of 340 yards and almost 10 YPC and added another 100+ through the air. Defensively they managed the Trojan offense, nothing stellar, but nothing completely atrocious either. But the biggest take home message to the Bulldogs was we can be behind against a capable opponent and do things in the second half to get the win. We've talked a lot about momentum and you have to believe that going into halftime, the Trojans with a 13 point lead were confident that if they kept doing what they were doing they could get a win. That didn't happen and they were held scoreless while SER rebounded to a 15 point victory. That speaks volumes about player leadership and the coaching staff!
Best Loss - They didn't have a good loss...They lost to a well below average Holly Springs squad, had a two possession lead on New Hanover at halftime and lost by a point after being held scoreless in the second half and were never in control in a game against nemesis Garner. Not much good from any of those games.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - Surprisingly these two teams have just one common opponent - New Hanover. The Spartans took care of business last week and got the win against the Bulldogs, while SER lost a 12 point lead to the Wildcats earlier in the year and lost by a point. The Spartan offense was held in check by the Wildcats, as were the Bulldogs, although SER managed a bit more through the air, while the Spartans were able to eek out a bit more on the ground. Defensively, the Spartans shut down the Wildcat rushing attack, while the Bulldogs stopped the New Hanover passing attack. Both games were close from start to finish, leading me to believe that there isn't much separating these two teams when looking at this one common opponent.
Statistically Speaking - Southern is scoring just under 23 points a game, while allowing exactly 15 per game. The Bulldogs are putting up just under 33 per game, while allowing the opposition just over 13 per game. Southern is averaging roughly 32 points per game in their six victories compared to just under 14 in their six losses. On the defensive side of the ball they are giving up 20 points in their losses to just 10 in their victories. Southeast Raleigh is scoring just over 38 points per game in their nine victories and allowing just under 11 per game, while in their three losses they've been limited to just over 16 a game, while allowing roughly 21 per game. Southern has shut out one team on the year while limiting three other teams, including New Hanover last week, to seven or fewer points. The Bulldogs have tallied three shut outs on the year and one additional game where they've allowed less than 10 points. Offensively the Bulldogs have scored 23 points or more in 10 of their 12 games this year, while the Spartans have put 23 or more up just four times this year.
Southern continues to be one of the more balanced offenses out there averaging roughly 152 YPG on the ground and 153 YPG through the air. They are picking up roughly 5.2 YPC and 6.6 YPA. The largest deviations in their numbers between their wins and losses have been in the running game where they are averaging over 3 YPC more in their victories compared to their defeats. After a slow start in the running game in their first four games where they did not go over the century mark, they have yet to rush for less than 100 yards since that point.
Defensively, the Spartans are stout, allowing just over 4 YPC on the ground overall and around 5.5 YPA through the air. In their victories they are allowing just 3 YPC and under 100 yards per game. Overall they are allowing 142 YPG on the ground and 118 YPG through the air. During their recent six game winning streak they've held four of their six opponents to less than 100 yards rushing.
The Spartans have been balanced when it's come to reaching the end zone. They have scored 15 times on the ground and 14 times through the air, while adding two special teams scores and one defensive score. Defensively, they are allowing 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game and 0.9 passing touchdowns per game.
The Bulldog offense has focused a bit more on the run compared to the Spartans, but their numbers have been very close in terms of the averages. Southeast is averaging 206 YPG on the ground and 132 more yards per game through the air. On average they are picking up 5.3 YPC and 6.8 YPA, incredibly close to the Spartan attack as mentioned earlier. The Bulldogs have rushed for 100 or more yards in every game but one this year (New Hanover).
Southeast Raleigh's defense has also been a top performer in the area where they are allowing just 117 YPG on the ground and roughly 70 YPG through the air. They are giving up on average just 3.8 YPC and just over 5 YPA, numbers right in the ball park with the Spartans. The Bulldogs have had at least five games on the year where they have limited the opposition to less than 100 yards rushing and two games where they've held their opponents to zero or less!
The Bulldogs have reached the end zone about twice as many times on the ground as they have through the air. They are averaging just about 2.6 rushing touchdowns per game to just around 1.3 through the air. They've added four touchdowns via their defense and picked up an additional score through special teams. Defensively, if you've wanted to score against this Southeast squad it's primarily come on the ground where they've allowed 15 scores to only three through the air. They've allowed one special teams score and one from an offensive miscue.
All Those Other Items
This has all the makings of a classic back-and-forth tight ball game where a mistake here or there turns the balance to one side or the other. You almost want to say - just add mud and you have the type of game that defines football.
Defensively, both teams have played well and there really isn't much of an advantage on one side or the other. Offensively, both have moved the ball well, with the Spartans being a bit more balanced, but from an average per play perspective both are right on track with one another. It's tough to pull much out from common opponents or pure statistics.
One thing that is clear is that the Spartans have played the tougher schedule to-date. The early part of the Southern schedule was grueling although conference play left a bit to be desired. For the Bulldogs, aside from their game against Garner this year, they really haven't played much competition and you have to wonder against a similar schedule to the Spartans how well they would have done. You have to watch yourself though, schedule strength only means so much. Specifically, if the Spartans matured from the early battles to understand the level of play needed to get a win then you would expect that as the game unfolds the level of competition that the Spartans see will be on par with their past, while the Bulldogs may sense that they are playing a team unlike many they've faced this year. How that plays into overall confidence for both teams may be the turning point in the game.
The Final Analysis
This is about as close as you get to a toss-up game. I don't think either of these teams are in the elite group this year, but I do believe they are both very good teams that on any given night if they put everything together can go far in these playoffs. Against one another, turnovers and penalties will bet the key to who moves forward and who goes home. They are both so similar and the small things will matter tonight more than any other games they've played prior.
Southern's stronger schedule will play a part in tonight's game and I think that assuming the game stays close throughout, the Spartans will find a way to pull out a victory on the road and move onto the third round of the plays after beginning the season 0-6.
DFBFan's Pick - Southern Durham (6-6) vs. Southeast Raleigh (9-3)
Southern Durham - 15
Southeast Raleigh - 12
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - Surprisingly these two teams have just one common opponent - New Hanover. The Spartans took care of business last week and got the win against the Bulldogs, while SER lost a 12 point lead to the Wildcats earlier in the year and lost by a point. The Spartan offense was held in check by the Wildcats, as were the Bulldogs, although SER managed a bit more through the air, while the Spartans were able to eek out a bit more on the ground. Defensively, the Spartans shut down the Wildcat rushing attack, while the Bulldogs stopped the New Hanover passing attack. Both games were close from start to finish, leading me to believe that there isn't much separating these two teams when looking at this one common opponent.
Statistically Speaking - Southern is scoring just under 23 points a game, while allowing exactly 15 per game. The Bulldogs are putting up just under 33 per game, while allowing the opposition just over 13 per game. Southern is averaging roughly 32 points per game in their six victories compared to just under 14 in their six losses. On the defensive side of the ball they are giving up 20 points in their losses to just 10 in their victories. Southeast Raleigh is scoring just over 38 points per game in their nine victories and allowing just under 11 per game, while in their three losses they've been limited to just over 16 a game, while allowing roughly 21 per game. Southern has shut out one team on the year while limiting three other teams, including New Hanover last week, to seven or fewer points. The Bulldogs have tallied three shut outs on the year and one additional game where they've allowed less than 10 points. Offensively the Bulldogs have scored 23 points or more in 10 of their 12 games this year, while the Spartans have put 23 or more up just four times this year.
Southern continues to be one of the more balanced offenses out there averaging roughly 152 YPG on the ground and 153 YPG through the air. They are picking up roughly 5.2 YPC and 6.6 YPA. The largest deviations in their numbers between their wins and losses have been in the running game where they are averaging over 3 YPC more in their victories compared to their defeats. After a slow start in the running game in their first four games where they did not go over the century mark, they have yet to rush for less than 100 yards since that point.
Defensively, the Spartans are stout, allowing just over 4 YPC on the ground overall and around 5.5 YPA through the air. In their victories they are allowing just 3 YPC and under 100 yards per game. Overall they are allowing 142 YPG on the ground and 118 YPG through the air. During their recent six game winning streak they've held four of their six opponents to less than 100 yards rushing.
The Spartans have been balanced when it's come to reaching the end zone. They have scored 15 times on the ground and 14 times through the air, while adding two special teams scores and one defensive score. Defensively, they are allowing 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game and 0.9 passing touchdowns per game.
The Bulldog offense has focused a bit more on the run compared to the Spartans, but their numbers have been very close in terms of the averages. Southeast is averaging 206 YPG on the ground and 132 more yards per game through the air. On average they are picking up 5.3 YPC and 6.8 YPA, incredibly close to the Spartan attack as mentioned earlier. The Bulldogs have rushed for 100 or more yards in every game but one this year (New Hanover).
Southeast Raleigh's defense has also been a top performer in the area where they are allowing just 117 YPG on the ground and roughly 70 YPG through the air. They are giving up on average just 3.8 YPC and just over 5 YPA, numbers right in the ball park with the Spartans. The Bulldogs have had at least five games on the year where they have limited the opposition to less than 100 yards rushing and two games where they've held their opponents to zero or less!
The Bulldogs have reached the end zone about twice as many times on the ground as they have through the air. They are averaging just about 2.6 rushing touchdowns per game to just around 1.3 through the air. They've added four touchdowns via their defense and picked up an additional score through special teams. Defensively, if you've wanted to score against this Southeast squad it's primarily come on the ground where they've allowed 15 scores to only three through the air. They've allowed one special teams score and one from an offensive miscue.
All Those Other Items
This has all the makings of a classic back-and-forth tight ball game where a mistake here or there turns the balance to one side or the other. You almost want to say - just add mud and you have the type of game that defines football.
Defensively, both teams have played well and there really isn't much of an advantage on one side or the other. Offensively, both have moved the ball well, with the Spartans being a bit more balanced, but from an average per play perspective both are right on track with one another. It's tough to pull much out from common opponents or pure statistics.
One thing that is clear is that the Spartans have played the tougher schedule to-date. The early part of the Southern schedule was grueling although conference play left a bit to be desired. For the Bulldogs, aside from their game against Garner this year, they really haven't played much competition and you have to wonder against a similar schedule to the Spartans how well they would have done. You have to watch yourself though, schedule strength only means so much. Specifically, if the Spartans matured from the early battles to understand the level of play needed to get a win then you would expect that as the game unfolds the level of competition that the Spartans see will be on par with their past, while the Bulldogs may sense that they are playing a team unlike many they've faced this year. How that plays into overall confidence for both teams may be the turning point in the game.
The Final Analysis
This is about as close as you get to a toss-up game. I don't think either of these teams are in the elite group this year, but I do believe they are both very good teams that on any given night if they put everything together can go far in these playoffs. Against one another, turnovers and penalties will bet the key to who moves forward and who goes home. They are both so similar and the small things will matter tonight more than any other games they've played prior.
Southern's stronger schedule will play a part in tonight's game and I think that assuming the game stays close throughout, the Spartans will find a way to pull out a victory on the road and move onto the third round of the plays after beginning the season 0-6.
DFBFan's Pick - Southern Durham (6-6) vs. Southeast Raleigh (9-3)
Southern Durham - 15
Southeast Raleigh - 12
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