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| PHOTO BY C.F. WARD |
After going with the Broughton and Garner rematch a week ago in our inaugural RDU EXP-anded Breakdown it was tough to decide where we would end up this week [RDU-EXP Breakdown (Week 1 Playoffs) - Broughton visits Garner - Playoffs = Rematch] with so many colossal match-ups happening in our area. Cap-8 opponents Wakefield and Wake Forest-Rolesville, Middle Creek battling Garner and Seventy-First taking on Jack Britt were just some of the huge games that were possibilities. But in the end, I decided that this rematch was where we would go and I have no reason to believe we'll be disappointed [Second RDU EXP-anded Breakdown Announced (Week 2 - Playoffs) - Fuquay-Varina visits Panther Creek - The Rematch Part II].
Both teams enter tonight's contest with 11 wins to only one loss on the year and both have been dynamite on the offensive side of the ball, although they employ two incredibly different attacks. In the first contest between the two the beauty of the game was the fact that both teams were able to do exactly what their offenses are built to do and they did them well. Fuquay is all about the run and establishing a new line of scrimmage, while poking and prodding at different locations along the line-of-scrimmage with the ever present threat of breaking the long one after slowly putting you to sleep with two and three yarders. On the flip side, the Catamounts work to run the ball but their diverse and incredibly balanced philosophy provides them with the tools to manage a game from almost any perspective. For them, they were forced to go to the air and that worked just as well as any other approach in putting them in a position late in the game to force overtime and eventually get the win.
Looking forward to breaking this game down...so let's get started.
Where They Stand Entering the Game
Fuquay-Varina (11 - 1 overall, 7 - 1 conference)
Wins - Knightdale (4A), Clayton (4A), West Johnston (4A), Cary (4A) [regular season], Apex (4A), Holly Springs (4A), Green Hope (4A), Athens Drive (4A), Middle Creek (4A), Lee County (4A), Cary (4A) [playoffs]; Records of Teams Combined - 58 - 68 (0.46 WP); PF - 389, PA - 124
Losses - Panther Creek (4A); Record of Teams Combined - 11 - 1 (0.92 WP); PF - 37, PA - 38
Strength of Schedule - 51 of 98 4A teams (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Cary - In the Playoffs last week. If you've coached, then you'll understand this a bit better than some other folks. It's rare in football, where you have one full week to prepare for the opposition and a small number of games in an overall season that you get the opportunity to play a team a second time and for both teams those second go-around's always mean so-much more than the first. For the victor, especially on the high school level you have to overcome the notion that you defeated this team earlier and that equates to a second victory, while for the team that lost, especially if both teams have had quality seasons, the energy level is typically quite high and the momentum is most always on their side to get pay-back to right-a-wrong to make things right again. Well, that was exactly what Fuquay and Cary had before them last week and in a slug-fest of a game the Bengals got that always tough second win against the same team in a single season. Offensively they were limited to less than 2.5 YPC, but their defense rose to the occasion limiting the Imps to less than 2.5 yards per play overall. This is one of those DNA type games and tells a lot about the Bengals.
Best Loss - Panther Creek. The Bengals did everything they needed to do - except win the game, but there was a lot of positive to take away from the contest. Fuquay rushed for almost 7 YPC, almost a full yard above their season average and really had little reason to go to the air. Defensively, they held Douglas and Bryant in-check on the ground and if not for the somewhat super human escapability of quarterback Kameron Bryant and the Catamounts passing attack would have most likely walked away with a seemingly easy victory.
Panther Creek (11 - 1 overall, 7 - 1 conference)
Wins - Leesville Road (4A), Charles E. Jordan (4A), Sanderson (4A), Fuquay-Varina (4A), Apex (4A), Holly Springs (4A), Green Hope (4A), Athens Drive (4A), Lee County (4A), Cary (4A), South View (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 54 - 61 (0.47 WP); PF - 347, PA - 135
Losses - Middle Creek (4A); Records of Teams Combined - 9 - 3 (0.75 WP); PF - 21, PA - 42
Strength of Schedule - 40 of 98 4A teams (according to Drew Pasteur at The Fantastic 50)
Best Win - Cary. It would be easy to call their early conference victory over the Bengals their best win of the year, but the reality is that even after that win, the final regular season game against Cary had all of the pressure of a full conference record riding on the Catamounts back. Cary had played strong defense throughout the year and when they had their rush attack working they were a tough out, something that once again the Bengals learned a week ago in the first round of the playoffs as they narrowly escaped with a 6-0 victory over the Imps. Panther Creek was held in check offensively when they played the Imps and clearly were more proficient in the passing game against the Bengals, but defensively, the Catamounts made the plays and limited the Cary offense enough to win a tight game that had everything riding on it - when everyone knew everything was riding on it.
Best Loss - Middle Creek. It's tough to necessarily call the loss to Middle Creek a quality loss other than the fact that the Mustangs have moved on to the second round of the playoffs after a thrilling overtime victory against Leesville Road a week ago. The Catamounts were shut down in the running game, managing just 26 yards on 31 carries, well below their season average of roughly 4.5 YPC. To make the game somewhat respectable on the scoreboard, Panther Creek did move the ball well through the air and saw all three of their scores come via the pass. Defensively, they allowed the Mustangs almost 100 yards on the ground, but limited to some extent the potent passing attack of the Mustangs.
Inside the Statistics - A Closer Look
Common Opponents - The common opponents are many, not to mention that both teams have already played once before this year. Looking at the previous contest, Fuquay ran the ball better than they had on average throughout the year, a big plus for the Bengals. The Catamounts were slowed in their running game, but managed to make up the deficit with savvy play through the air. Defensively both teams made their share of plays, but in the end both offenses were able to do exactly what they are fundamentally built to do and fought to an end of regulation tie.
The entire Tri-Nine conference comprises the list of common opponents. Out-of-conference, there are no common opponents. Against common competition the Bengals are putting up roughly 36 PPG and allowing just under 15 a game. The Catamounts are putting around 31 on the board and allowing the opposition just over 16 a game. Fuquay is rushing for 275 yards a game at around 6 YPC, while capitalizing on their heavy rush attack to hit teams in the screen game and play-action for just under 9 YPA and roughly 81 YPG through the air. The Catamounts have been balanced offensively, running for just under 142 YPG at roughly 4.1 YPC and they've complemented the ground attack with roughly 178 YPG through the air at a respectable 7.4 YPA. Defensively, the Bengals are allowing just over 100 YPG rushing and under 4 YPC - the Catamounts are allowing exactly 133 YPG on the ground and 4.4 YPC. Through the air, both defenses are almost mirror images of one another, Fuquay is allowing just under 107 YPG and 4.9 YPA, while the Catamounts are allowing just under 109 YPG and roughly 5.4 YPA.
The Bengals have been run dominated on the scoreboard, no surprise as they've put up 37 rushing scores to just 10 through the air. The Catamounts have been much more balanced, posting 15 scores on the ground and 14 through the air. Defensively, both teams have played to a high level with Fuquay allowing just 19 total scores and Panther Creek just 18.
Heading into halftime of their conference games, the Bengals have been up by 14 to six for the Catamounts. All of this is just more reason to believe we'll have another thriller on our hands!
Statistically Speaking - Fuquay is putting up just under 36 points on the year and allowing just over 13 points on the season. They've posted one shut-out on the year and have limited five additional opponents to nine points or less. The Bengals have scored 28 points or more in all but two of their games this year. The Catamounts are putting just under 31 up on the year and are allowing the opposition just under 15 per game. Panther Creek has posted three shut-outs and limited three other teams to seven or fewer points, while limiting two additional teams to 14 or less.
The Fuquay offense is something beautiful to watch - if you get into smash-mouth, dive, option based football. Their M.O. is to run and run they do - to the tune of almost 3500 yards this year and roughly 287 per game. They are posting an impressive 6.2 YPC on the ground. They've rushed for 187 yards or more in every game this year but one - last week against Cary where they were limited to 97 yards. They've rushed for 200 yards or more in nine of their games and 300 yards or more in five of their games. Through the air, the Bengals have hurt teams through play-action and screens after they've been lulled to sleep by the monontonous pound of the rush attack. Fuquay is putting up roughly 76 yards per game through the air at a strong 8.6 YPA, indicative for their strong rush attack of an equally strong play-action and screen based passing attack. They've only passed for over 100 yards twice on the year, but if you don't need to - then why try.
The Bengals' defense has been a strong unit as well in the run category. They are limiting opponents to under four yards per carry and just about 101 yards per game. They've limited seven of their opponents to less than 100 yards rushing and have allowed just one opponent to rush for over 200 yards on them - Athens Drive - go figure (well, if you must, sometimes this is the benefit of the spread offense). Against the pass they've been better than average allowing just 5 YPA and just at 102 YPG. They've limited eight of their opponents to less than 100 yards.
Fuquay lives on the run and they've made it to the end zone 45 times in this form to a remarkable 3.75 rushing touchdowns per game. They've added to this total with 12 additional scores through the air and two scores via their defense, including a fumble return for a touchdown by UNC recruit Shawn Underwood. Defensively, they are allowing under one touchdown per game via the rush (0.92) and less than one touchdown through the air (0.67), they've also allowed one score on special teams, against Cary earlier in the year and one defensive score.
The Panther Creek offense is one of the most college and pro like offenses you'll get to see in this area and in so many ways is really a beautiful thing to watch. Although they run the ball roughly two to one, they've been incredibly balanced in the yardage they've picked up through this ratio. They have tallied just under 1900 yards on the ground this year and just under 2000 through the air. They are averaging roughly 155 YPG on the ground at about 4.5 YPC and another 164 YPG through the air at just under 8 YPA. They've rushed for over 100 yards in all but two games this year, but have only gone over 200 yards twice. Through the air, they've gone over 100 yards in all but one game, while going over 200 yards in four of their contests.
Defensively, the Catamounts have not been nearly as stingy as the Bengals, but still above average. They are allowing just under 125 YPG on the ground and just over 4 YPC, while the opposition has managed less than 100 YPG through the air at about 5.4 YPA. The Panther Creek rush defense has limited six teams to less than 100 yards rushing and seven teams to less than 100 yards passing.
Similar to their balanced offensive attack they've also distributed the ball when its come to entering the end zone where they've scored 25 times on the ground and 19 times through the air. They have yet to score on special teams (aside from one of the best place kickers in the area) but have added three scores via their defense. On the defensive side of the ball they are allowing exactly one rushing touchdown and one passing touchdown per game, while also allowing one special teams score earlier this year.
All Those Other Items
So many reasons why this game can and will be incredibly interesting. First the rematch element and how the initial game came to an end. Both of these teams are evenly matched and based on the balance of their work there is a lot of reason to believe that this will be another close affair. It's always tough for a team to beat another team twice in one year and that is exactly what the Catamounts will have to do in order to move onto the third round of the playoffs for the first time in school history. Of course, the Bengals did just that last week when they knocked off conference foe Cary in the first round to notch their second victory of the year on the Imps.
Much of Fuquay's potential success will stem from two distinct areas on offense, first if they can run the ball consistently and second how well they do via play-action and through their screen game. If the Catamounts are able to limit both of those areas, then it will be one of the top defensive performances of the year in the area. Fuquay showed in the first game that if they can simply keep their running game going, they'll be in the game and quite possibly in a strong position to capture the win.
The Catamount offense will hinge primarily on arguably one of the top quarterbacks in the area in Kameron Bryant. After watching many of the area's best this season, only Vad Lee at Hillside is in the final discussion as top quarterback when it comes to this region and to be honest I would call them Co-QBs of the year as they bring alot of the same, but a few differences that make both outstanding. Bryant's incredible pocket presence and command of the Catamount offense is fundamentally his strength and if those around him can make things easy for him, the Fuquay defense will be in trouble. If on the other hand, the Bengals are able to create havoc, the question will be whether Bryant as he has done so often this year can simply make the play that puts his team in a positive position for the next down. The key is that it isn't always the big play that Bryant orchestrates that makes him so special, but the fact that he so rarely when everything is breaking down around him allows something terrible to happen. He salvages the play and places Coach Bragg's diverse offense in second or third and manageable situations where the chains can continue to move.
The Final Analysis
In all honesty, there are a lot of reasons why if you are simply looking at the numbers that you say one of these teams should definitely win, even if it's close, they should definitely win. But, both of these teams are very different and because of that it's tough to simply use that metric to make a decision on the outcome.
There is no doubt in my mind that both teams will put on a show tonight and that both coaching staffs will have pulled all the strings and done all the appropriate preparation to place their respective units in a position to challenge for the victory. The question though - is who?
Fuquay is the rush and the rush is Fuquay. Sure they have made plays in the passing game, big plays in fact, but those big plays work, because they rush the ball so well. So it's easy, if they run the ball well and they control the clock, check-mate Fuquay. But not so fast, the Catamounts although incredibly balanced are in many ways much more of a cerebral offense. Coach Bragg uses every element of the offense, whether it's the fundamental rushing attack led by Douglas and Bryant or a passing attack that will routinely hit the running back out of the backfield in straight drop back or the prototypical tight end down the seam. In the end, it's a lot about precision, it's alot about balance and it's a lot about feeling it. Ya, you heard me right, about feeling it and when the Catamount offense is in the zone and Bryant is leading that movement, they are very, very good.
So call me strange, call me uneducated if you'd like, call me out to left field - but what can I say, I'm feeling it and what I'm seeing is Panther Creek making the plays in the end that gets the win.
DFBFan's Pick - Fuquay-Varina (11-1) vs. Panther Creek (11-1)
Panther Creek - 32
Fuquay-Varina - 30
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